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Also, I couldn't get the original documents at the time, but you reminded me of this: >'The simplest assumption about dice as random-number generators is that
by nonbel 10y ago
Also, I couldn't get the original documents at the time, but you reminded me of this:
>'The simplest assumption about dice as random-number generators is that each face is equally likely, and therefore the event “five or six” will occur with probability 1/3 and the number of successes out of 12 will be distributed according to the binomial distribution. When the data are compared to this “fair binomial” hypothesis using Pearson’s 2 test without any binning, Pearson found a p-value of 0.000016, or “the odds are 62,499 to 1 against such a system of deviations on a random selection.”'
https://galton.uchicago.edu/about/docs/2009/2009_dice_zac_labby.pdf https://galton.uchicago.edu/about/docs/2009/2009_dice_zac_la...
The point is you will always find deviations (with extremely low p-values) if you look hard enough. It is about collecting data as carefully as possible, and determining which model fits best, not which fits perfectly.
- GFK_of_xmaspast 10y ago> The point is you will always find deviations (with extremely low p-values) if you look hard enough I don't know how you can get that point from the article instead of 'an 1894-era die is biased but you need a lot of statistical power in order to see that'.
- nonbel 10y agoI think the lesson is clear... the more messed up your methods the easier to see the deviation (ie the historical vs modern experiment). Also, where do you get this: >"you need a lot of statistical power in order to see that"