I think it was similar to his shipping capacity play that made him a lot of money years before, where there was going to be a shortage of production once demand

I think it was similar to his shipping capacity play that made him a lot of money years before, where there was going to be a shortage of production once demand turned. The part I don't get is with the debt load he was essentially betting on timing of a commodity price, and if you are going to do that you might as well just play in futures where the upside on a correct call is higher. The same setup with a lower debt load might make more sense, since there is no timeframe on the cycle turn and you can quietly wait for it (like he did with the shipping company). I don't think Spier and Pabrai were trying to get jobs with him, although it could be they pretend now like they weren't, but they both were running their respective funds at the time. My "relationship" with Buffett is like the proverbial parent / child relationship: first you think they can do anything, then you think they don't know that much, then you realize how much they really knew all along. It doesn't hurt that I made good money following him into IBM early this year after I sat down and tried putting together the pieces for myself. The guy is packing some serious horsepower that I think is underestimated, even given that everyone knows he's super smart.