4 ms·

You have to look at total passenger-miles. Currently planes are over 1000 times safer. I think it actually might approach 10,000.

by rplst8 10y ago

mikeash 10y ago
I did: http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_40.html http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/pub... For 2014, the latest year listed, airlines did 607,772 million passenger miles, highway vehicles did 4,371,706 million. The current level of safety can't be accurately measured, because airline fatalities don't happen often enough. Whatever the level is, it's far better than cars. But the hypothetical one-full-plane-crash-per-month scenario does not compare particularly favorably to cars.
- rplst8 10y ago
  Maybe the figure was 10 times safer then. A plane carries an average of 200-300 people. One flight per month is somewhere between 2400-3600. Current highway fatalities number about 35,000. So the ten times figure works. That said, I feel like either passenger-miles figure is either too low for airlines or too high for vehicles. I remember the study I had read had them much different.
  - mikeash 10y ago
    Ten times fewer fatalities and seven times fewer passenger miles means safety is nearly the same. Not ten times better.
  - rplst8 10y ago
    Check out these charts: Injured persons by transportation mode: http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_02_02.html http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/pub... Total Accidents by mode: http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_02_03.html http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/pub... Rates for Air fatalities: http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_02_09.html http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/pub... Rate for Vehicle fatalities. http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_02_17.html http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/pub... The two key numbers here I think are: Fatality Rate per 100 million vehicle-miles: 1.10 (2013) and Fatality Rate per 100 million aircraft-miles: 0.117 (2013) The 10 year averages for both of those respectively are 1.254 and 0.189.
    - mikeash 10y ago
      What's your point? These numbers agree with me. If you're still arguing that airlines would still be 100x (or 10x) safer in the face of monthly fatal crashes, these numbers do not support that at all. If you're merely arguing that airlines as they actually are today are 10x safer than driving, that is clearly true and a vast understatement, but I never said otherwise.

You have to look at total passenger-miles. Currently planes are over 1000 times safer. I think it actually might approach 10,000.

by rplst8 10y ago

You have to look at total passenger-miles. Currently planes are over 1000 times safer. I think it actually might approach 10,000.

mikeash 10y ago

I did: http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_40.html http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/pub... For 2014, the latest year listed, airlines did 607,772 million passenger miles, highway vehicles did 4,371,706 million. The current level of safety can't be accurately measured, because airline fatalities don't happen often enough. Whatever the level is, it's far better than cars. But the hypothetical one-full-plane-crash-per-month scenario does not compare particularly favorably to cars.

rplst8 10y ago
Maybe the figure was 10 times safer then. A plane carries an average of 200-300 people. One flight per month is somewhere between 2400-3600. Current highway fatalities number about 35,000. So the ten times figure works. That said, I feel like either passenger-miles figure is either too low for airlines or too high for vehicles. I remember the study I had read had them much different.
- mikeash 10y ago
  Ten times fewer fatalities and seven times fewer passenger miles means safety is nearly the same. Not ten times better.
- rplst8 10y ago
  Check out these charts: Injured persons by transportation mode: http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_02_02.html http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/pub... Total Accidents by mode: http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_02_03.html http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/pub... Rates for Air fatalities: http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_02_09.html http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/pub... Rate for Vehicle fatalities. http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_02_17.html http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/pub... The two key numbers here I think are: Fatality Rate per 100 million vehicle-miles: 1.10 (2013) and Fatality Rate per 100 million aircraft-miles: 0.117 (2013) The 10 year averages for both of those respectively are 1.254 and 0.189.
  - mikeash 10y ago
    What's your point? These numbers agree with me. If you're still arguing that airlines would still be 100x (or 10x) safer in the face of monthly fatal crashes, these numbers do not support that at all. If you're merely arguing that airlines as they actually are today are 10x safer than driving, that is clearly true and a vast understatement, but I never said otherwise.