"I'm not sure how to fix this." I'd say it's an unsolvable problem, and that's good! What breakthrough projects are good at is pushing the envelope and invent

"I'm not sure how to fix this." I'd say it's an unsolvable problem, and that's good! What breakthrough projects are good at is pushing the envelope and inventing whole new technologies. These technologies are then experimented with by smaller firms a few years later, and the winners of this scramble bring the technology to market. This is a spaghetti against the wall kind of market research; I think it's impossible to solve the problem of how to identify a new market and win it over. You can definitely have an informed approach that reduces risk, but it's not a technical problem that can be systematically solved. There will always be risk where there is reward. If it was possible to systematically identify new business opportunities, there would be many more players in the entrepreneurship business, and commensurately lower profits. In fact, an "informed approach" can sometimes lead you to discount real opportunities as too pie-in-the-sky. We need different risk propositions to make an economy with more niches for different kinds of people. I don't think the difficulty of identifying new breakthrough businesses (presumably with breakthrough profits) is a problem at all.