4 ms·

The Internet in 1969

philwelch 16y ago
I like how they accurately predicted a lot of the technology, but got the sociology all wrong. Was it really so difficult to predict in 1969 that women wouldn't all be stay at home mothers? Or (more realistically) just too controversial at the time to casually suggest that the wondrous world of the future would have women working, rather than spending all their time at home shopping online while their husbands are at work scowling at the bill?
- barrkel 16y ago
  This is a general flaw of predicting the future: people usually try to extrapolate along a single axis to see what will happen, all other things being equal. This is the model of: the future = the present + <some innovation> - now what are the ramifications? The problem is that it's really difficult to bring all the other innovations and changes into the picture, and predict how those innovations will synergize (and antagonize) with one another.
  - tfh 16y ago
    > the future = the present + <some innovation> That reminds me of this : http://paleo-future.blogspot.com/2007/04/postcards-showing-year-2000-circa-1900.html http://paleo-future.blogspot.com/2007/04/postcards-showing-y...
- nfnaaron 16y ago
  "Was it really so difficult to predict in 1969 that women wouldn't all be stay at home mothers?" Maybe not difficult to predict, but easy to deny and ignore. I was 12 in 69, and "women's lib" (liberation) was a current term, which could either be used positively or negatively.
  - philwelch 16y ago
    I figured they were at best trying to avoid controversy. I'm reminded of how the old Star Trek was progressive and boundary-pushing for its time, even though some episodes have questionable connotations and attitudes about women (and they're all required to wear miniskirts and go-go boots to work!)
deleted 16y ago
[deleted]
msujaws 16y ago
Didn't it seem odd that they also predicted moving to LCD's and away from CRTs? I'm calling shenanigans on this video.
- ugh 16y ago
  That’s not necessarily odd. 2001 (that movie is from 1968) had all sorts of flat displays, even small TV pads. Paper already is flat and has been forever, so the concept of flat displays is not even innovative or new, it’s all just about overcoming technical hurdles. (That said I would certainly like to know more about this video, who produced it and for what purpose.)
  - kept 16y ago
    "In 1967 the Philco-Ford Corporation released a short film titled 1999 A.D. In it the inevitable advances of the future are demonstrated." From here: http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2007/4/30/1999-ad-1967.html http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2007/4/30/1999-ad-1967.html Another one on the same site: http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2009/12/6/jet-set-in-1999-ad-1967.html http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2009/12/6/jet-set-in-1999-ad...
- afiler 16y ago
  I figured the concept for the display devices was based on microfilm/microfiche readers rather than CRTs. Microfilm was "high-tech" back then, and Vannevar Bush's Memex (of a couple decades earlier) was microfilm-based.
thought_alarm 16y ago
It's just like the Microsoft Courier video, only older and more realistic.
- rbanffy 16y ago
  Not really. Microsoft's one is more like a "don't buy theirs, ours will be better".

I like how they accurately predicted a lot of the technology, but got the sociology all wrong. Was it really so difficult to predict in 1969 that women wouldn't all be stay at home mothers? Or (more realistically) just too controversial at the time to casually suggest that the wondrous world of the future would have women working, rather than spending all their time at home shopping online while their husbands are at work scowling at the bill?

barrkel 16y ago
This is a general flaw of predicting the future: people usually try to extrapolate along a single axis to see what will happen, all other things being equal. This is the model of: the future = the present + <some innovation> - now what are the ramifications? The problem is that it's really difficult to bring all the other innovations and changes into the picture, and predict how those innovations will synergize (and antagonize) with one another.
- tfh 16y ago
  > the future = the present + <some innovation> That reminds me of this : http://paleo-future.blogspot.com/2007/04/postcards-showing-year-2000-circa-1900.html http://paleo-future.blogspot.com/2007/04/postcards-showing-y...
nfnaaron 16y ago
"Was it really so difficult to predict in 1969 that women wouldn't all be stay at home mothers?" Maybe not difficult to predict, but easy to deny and ignore. I was 12 in 69, and "women's lib" (liberation) was a current term, which could either be used positively or negatively.
- philwelch 16y ago
  I figured they were at best trying to avoid controversy. I'm reminded of how the old Star Trek was progressive and boundary-pushing for its time, even though some episodes have questionable connotations and attitudes about women (and they're all required to wear miniskirts and go-go boots to work!)

deleted 16y ago

[deleted]

msujaws 16y ago

Didn't it seem odd that they also predicted moving to LCD's and away from CRTs? I'm calling shenanigans on this video.

ugh 16y ago
That’s not necessarily odd. 2001 (that movie is from 1968) had all sorts of flat displays, even small TV pads. Paper already is flat and has been forever, so the concept of flat displays is not even innovative or new, it’s all just about overcoming technical hurdles. (That said I would certainly like to know more about this video, who produced it and for what purpose.)
- kept 16y ago
  "In 1967 the Philco-Ford Corporation released a short film titled 1999 A.D. In it the inevitable advances of the future are demonstrated." From here: http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2007/4/30/1999-ad-1967.html http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2007/4/30/1999-ad-1967.html Another one on the same site: http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2009/12/6/jet-set-in-1999-ad-1967.html http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2009/12/6/jet-set-in-1999-ad...
afiler 16y ago
I figured the concept for the display devices was based on microfilm/microfiche readers rather than CRTs. Microfilm was "high-tech" back then, and Vannevar Bush's Memex (of a couple decades earlier) was microfilm-based.

thought_alarm 16y ago

It's just like the Microsoft Courier video, only older and more realistic.

rbanffy 16y ago
Not really. Microsoft's one is more like a "don't buy theirs, ours will be better".