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Sorry, but where is wildfire in "hurricanes, floods, tornadoes or drought"? This kind of dismissal of a no-doubt nuanced opinion on a scientific issue based o

by inimino 10y ago

Sorry, but where is wildfire in "hurricanes, floods, tornadoes or drought"? This kind of dismissal of a no-doubt nuanced opinion on a scientific issue based on "what you found in five minutes on the internet" brings literally nothing to the conversation.

lisper 10y ago
The increase in wildfires can be largely attributed to the increase in droughts in some areas. The reason that droughts don't appear to be getting worse overall is that the rain is moving from one place to another. So some places that used to get more water are now getting less, and places that used to get less water are now getting more. But this is still a problem because it's very hard to move agricultural infrastructure to chase the rain.
- inimino 10y ago
  > can be largely attributed to the increase in droughts in some areas Among many other possible explanations. Look, you wanted to show the author wrong, for whatever reasons, and you went looking for something and went with the first thing you found. Now, rather than admitting there was nothing there, you really want to argue about the causes of wildfires? Your point was not a good one. Just admit it.
  - lisper 10y ago
    > Among many other possible explanations. Like what? > you wanted to show the author wrong No, absolutely not. I would like nothing better than for the author to be right, and for climate change to not be causing any serious problems. But I'm pretty sure that there is actually a lot of evidence that climate change is causing serious problems. The only reason I'm harping on this one dataset is, as I said, I'm on a slow internet connection and so I can't do any comprehensive research at the moment. I'm going the best I can with what I've got.
    - gizmo686 10y ago
      >> Among many other possible explanations. > Like what? Now you are just being deliberately obtuse. You already responed to my comment where I provide an alternative explanation of changes in fire policy, and you agknowledge that "the situation with respect to fire is very complicated". > I would like nothing better than for the author to be right, and for climate change to not be causing any serious problems. The author never made such a claim, going so far as to state: "I believe climate change is real and that human emissions of greenhouse gases risk justifying action, including a carbon tax."
      - lisper 10y ago
        > Now you are just being deliberately obtuse. Sorry, I'm juggling a lot of threads here. > The author never made such a claim The author claimed that there is "scant evidence" that climate change is causing extreme weather events, including drought. Being a resident of California, which is in the middle of its worst drought in history, that claim seems improbable to me. (Note carefully: the claim that I find highly improbable is not that climate change is not causing extreme weather events, but that there is "scant evidence" that climate change is causing extreme weather events.) I first tried looking up actual drought data, but it's all hiding behind high-bandwidth visualizations which I cannot currently access. So I went with what I could find. [UPDATE:] Found this: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/adai/papers/Dai-drought_WIRES2010.pdf http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/adai/papers/Dai-drought_WIRES201... So I think it is fair to say that the evidence that climate change is causing increased severity of drought may be debatable, but it is not scant.
    - inimino 10y ago
      > and for climate change to not be causing any serious problems. ... which is not even remotely what the author said. We are in "Did you read the article?" territory here. > I'm going the best I can with what I've got. What that means is that you've picked your conclusion, you scrounged some premises, and constructed an argument to fit. It seems you're approaching this in a high school debate-team, rhetorical, "but what about" style and not actually honestly looking for facts.

by inimino 10y ago

lisper 10y ago

The increase in wildfires can be largely attributed to the increase in droughts in some areas. The reason that droughts don't appear to be getting worse overall is that the rain is moving from one place to another. So some places that used to get more water are now getting less, and places that used to get less water are now getting more. But this is still a problem because it's very hard to move agricultural infrastructure to chase the rain.

inimino 10y ago
> can be largely attributed to the increase in droughts in some areas Among many other possible explanations. Look, you wanted to show the author wrong, for whatever reasons, and you went looking for something and went with the first thing you found. Now, rather than admitting there was nothing there, you really want to argue about the causes of wildfires? Your point was not a good one. Just admit it.
- lisper 10y ago
  > Among many other possible explanations. Like what? > you wanted to show the author wrong No, absolutely not. I would like nothing better than for the author to be right, and for climate change to not be causing any serious problems. But I'm pretty sure that there is actually a lot of evidence that climate change is causing serious problems. The only reason I'm harping on this one dataset is, as I said, I'm on a slow internet connection and so I can't do any comprehensive research at the moment. I'm going the best I can with what I've got.
  - gizmo686 10y ago
    >> Among many other possible explanations. > Like what? Now you are just being deliberately obtuse. You already responed to my comment where I provide an alternative explanation of changes in fire policy, and you agknowledge that "the situation with respect to fire is very complicated". > I would like nothing better than for the author to be right, and for climate change to not be causing any serious problems. The author never made such a claim, going so far as to state: "I believe climate change is real and that human emissions of greenhouse gases risk justifying action, including a carbon tax."
    - lisper 10y ago
      > Now you are just being deliberately obtuse. Sorry, I'm juggling a lot of threads here. > The author never made such a claim The author claimed that there is "scant evidence" that climate change is causing extreme weather events, including drought. Being a resident of California, which is in the middle of its worst drought in history, that claim seems improbable to me. (Note carefully: the claim that I find highly improbable is not that climate change is not causing extreme weather events, but that there is "scant evidence" that climate change is causing extreme weather events.) I first tried looking up actual drought data, but it's all hiding behind high-bandwidth visualizations which I cannot currently access. So I went with what I could find. [UPDATE:] Found this: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/adai/papers/Dai-drought_WIRES2010.pdf http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/adai/papers/Dai-drought_WIRES201... So I think it is fair to say that the evidence that climate change is causing increased severity of drought may be debatable, but it is not scant.
  - inimino 10y ago
    > and for climate change to not be causing any serious problems. ... which is not even remotely what the author said. We are in "Did you read the article?" territory here. > I'm going the best I can with what I've got. What that means is that you've picked your conclusion, you scrounged some premises, and constructed an argument to fit. It seems you're approaching this in a high school debate-team, rhetorical, "but what about" style and not actually honestly looking for facts.