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I think your story does more to reinforce the parent post's point. The chain of events you outline spans an entire millennium. Over that time, yes, a lot of tec

I think your story does more to reinforce the parent post's point. The chain of events you outline spans an entire millennium. Over that time, yes, a lot of technology developed, and eventually we got to computers, and there was even the movement that gives us the term Luddite. But it was still one long chain of gradual, evolutionary developments over the course of a very long expanse of time. At no point was there anything like the kind of sudden turmoil that futurists like to claim that deep learning will produce.

murukesh_s 10y ago
We never know, that is what the original parent comment was about. Regarding gradual progression, remember - we are now in a highly connected world, where things move at tremendous pace. And a lot more population have access to the latest information. Just like the invention of the wheel, or the invention of steam engines, or the computers, transistors etc, there could be a tipping point, which could happen today as I write or tomorrow or even after a decade. We can only guess. But looking at the speed of things, I would say the probability of it happening very near is very high and is worth the hype.
Aeolos 10y ago
If the world evolved in linear terms, you would be right. However, the rate of scientific advancement has multiplied exponentially over the history of mankind: our scientific understanding has advanced more in the last 100 years than it has in the previous 10000 combined (nuclear physics, quantum physics, molecular biology, information technology, astronomy/cosmology - you name it.) Remember, 10 years ago smartphones were in the realm of science fiction. Now, everyone has one in their pockets. Today we can train a computer for a week to generate a cute little christmas jingle. How many years do we need to train a human child to do the same? AGI won't happen overnight, sure, but its effects of that research will be felt continuously along the way.

murukesh_s 10y ago

We never know, that is what the original parent comment was about. Regarding gradual progression, remember - we are now in a highly connected world, where things move at tremendous pace. And a lot more population have access to the latest information. Just like the invention of the wheel, or the invention of steam engines, or the computers, transistors etc, there could be a tipping point, which could happen today as I write or tomorrow or even after a decade. We can only guess. But looking at the speed of things, I would say the probability of it happening very near is very high and is worth the hype.

Aeolos 10y ago

If the world evolved in linear terms, you would be right. However, the rate of scientific advancement has multiplied exponentially over the history of mankind: our scientific understanding has advanced more in the last 100 years than it has in the previous 10000 combined (nuclear physics, quantum physics, molecular biology, information technology, astronomy/cosmology - you name it.) Remember, 10 years ago smartphones were in the realm of science fiction. Now, everyone has one in their pockets. Today we can train a computer for a week to generate a cute little christmas jingle. How many years do we need to train a human child to do the same? AGI won't happen overnight, sure, but its effects of that research will be felt continuously along the way.