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You illustrate the point exactly. Maybe it would be clearer with a little more detail on the "potato blight" analogy. Here are two kinds of statement: "Potat
by kapitza 10y ago
You illustrate the point exactly. Maybe it would be clearer with a little more detail on the "potato blight" analogy.
Here are two kinds of statement:
"Potato blight" has no single cause -- it results from combinations of inter-related agricultural conditions, including rainy summers, witchcraft, overworked soils, and God's wrath at our tolerance for rampant homosexuality.
"Potato blight" is the common name for a plant disease, usually caused by the organism Phytophthora infestans.
The first statement, just in its form, is essentially pre-scientific, pre-rational thinking, which has been the norm for most of human history. Parts of it may be true in some sense. Pretty much none of it is in any way testable.
The second is a scientific statement at least in form -- it may or may not be accurate, but that's easy to check.
Occam's basic point was that when you propose a complex, multi-causal explanation of a discrete syndrome, against an alternative hypothesis which is parsimonious, precise and uni-causal, the Bayesian prior of the complex hypothesis should be very low.
In this case, we have a multi-causal explanation of a historical mass migration. To my mind, the causal null hypothesis for any urban decline or mass migration, past or present, is: the city fell into ruins because the people who lived there left. The people left because, due to political or military forces, they became afraid for their physical safety. In short, ethnic cleansing.
This simple uni-causal explanation is amply confirmed by anecdotal evidence from the period. Or you could accept Wikipedia's multi-causal explanation, which to my eye is basically zoning changes, the phase of the moon and maybe even God's wrath.
But, sure, there are a ton of papers. Bear in mind: in 1405, there were a ton of papers as well.
- maxerickson 10y agoWhite flight was an exercise of economic power by the people that left.
- kapitza 10y agoWow. To paraphrase Walter Sobchak: say what you want about Marxism. But at least it's an ethos. I don't know this, but let's suppose that by your use of this term "exercise of economic power", you imply some moral sense in which the action is unrighteous or unjust. Right? (Bear in mind that, of course, from the opposite perspective, it sounds a lot like "blaming the victim.") Consider a not hugely dissimilar migration that happened around the same time: the migration of French Algerians to metropolitan France. Here's a short Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oran_massacre_of_1962 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oran_massacre_of_1962 Totally serious, non-rhetorical question: would you categorize this historical event as "exercise of economic power" or as "ethnic cleansing?" Also, is there any generalization that can be drawn across the political systems in which these two events happened (decline of Detroit, independence of Algeria)? Or is it just a coincidence that they both go down in the '60s?
- maxerickson 10y agoPeople weren't forced out, many of those that had resources chose to leave. That's not a cleansing. I'm not sure what to make of you comparing several hundred thousand people moving to a new location to a mass murder. Do you somehow think that deaths from murder were a major contributor to the changing demographics of Detroit?
- kapitza 10y agoUh, no, if several hundred thousand people were murdered, that would be a massacre. If they left because they were afraid of being murdered (or otherwise violated in their physical safety), that would be ethnic cleansing. Do you not believe this applies to those who left Detroit, or Algeria? Really? Is it not the case that every country and major city outside East Asia contains areas where residing would endanger you? Including... most of Detroit? Could you seriously be this good and innocent a person? Note also that it takes a lot less physical menace to drive out Ward and June Cleaver, than Dylan "YOLO" Hipster. Of course, Ward and June were privileged...
- maxerickson 10y agoThat isn't the definition of ethnic cleansing. (usually involves force and systematic exercise of that force)
- kapitza 10y agoCrime isn't force? Withholding protection from crime isn't systematic? When Milosevic went to cleanse Kosovo, he didn't send the Yugoslav Army to put people in cattle cars. He just let Arkan's Tigers do whatever. Arkan got the message and so did the Albanians: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arkan https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arkan