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I'm guilty as charged. I predicted in 2014 that within 3 years majority of upper middle class households will have 3D printer just like they have paper printer.

by sytelus 10y ago

I'm guilty as charged. I predicted in 2014 that within 3 years majority of upper middle class households will have 3D printer just like they have paper printer. Boy, I was wrong and it feels quite laughable claim now. After initial hype of continuous reduction of prices, things have just came to halt. Most people don't want to spend few hundred dollars just to build lifeless models of dragons and there has been no killer application that can justify the price.

Animats 10y ago
I've heard the CEO of Autodesk, Carl Bass, saying the same thing. That's why Autodesk came out with all those low-end 3D tools.
abritinthebay 10y ago
I made a similar claim but said 10-15 years, which I still think is about right.
kylec 10y ago
I predicted in 2014 that within 3 years majority of upper middle class households will have 3D printer just like they have paper printer. I don't have a paper printer anymore, and I wonder how many households still do. I'd wager that more households got rid of their paper printers in the past 3 years than bought 3D printers.
- sytelus 10y ago
  I also don't use paper printer more than may be 5 times a year. But those 5 times are important times and these things are cheap enough for the convenience of not have to travel to some shop with USB.
stevewilhelm 10y ago
Comments from four years ago... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5640988#5641367 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5640988#5641367 I own a 2D printer and have found my use of it declined dramatically over the last five years. Given I just became a Google Shopping Express member and I am already addicted to Amazon Prime, I anticipate my desire to make my own 3D items at home to also decline over time. I do agree with @JDDunn9. There will be businesses that will provide 3D printing services using state of the art printers, high quality materials, and their expertise. Bay Photo is a 2D example of this kind of service. They will deliver the results quickly, cheaply, and reliably using distribution services like Prime and Express. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4594997#4595489 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4594997#4595489 I'll buy a 3D printer when I can print all the pieces to build a Nerf N-Strike Elite Hail Fire for under forty dollars worth of materials and it can be printed and assembled in under three hours. I picked this item because it was featured in the Wired magazine article right after their "3D printers are the next PC" article. ~
bshimmin 10y ago
Having been buying quite a lot of toys for our young children recently, it did sort of strike me that a moderately affordable 3D printer that really did Just Work, where I could go to, say, lego.com, click what I wanted a model printing of, and then it all just happened, as if by magic... would be something I'd buy. I think the combination of convenience and "Wow, that's cool" would be quite compelling, even if it didn't really work out all that much cheaper. On the whole, though, I'm really struggling to see how these things will ever take off. (Like others, I have a paper printer which I use a handful of times a year, and it's never an experience I relish. At least printers are very cheap now, even if ink isn't.)
- Drdrdrq 10y ago
  Well, toner is, and most laser printers have sensible prices nowadays. At least with laser the ink in head won't dry out, causing cleaning procedure or ink replacement. On the topic of 3D, I don't see a market for home use, but in enterprise - well, I could use one right now if they were cheap enough, easy to use and produced quality products (or maybe I just don't know that they are? Last researched a year ago...)

by sytelus 10y ago

Animats 10y ago

I've heard the CEO of Autodesk, Carl Bass, saying the same thing. That's why Autodesk came out with all those low-end 3D tools.

abritinthebay 10y ago

I made a similar claim but said 10-15 years, which I still think is about right.

kylec 10y ago

I predicted in 2014 that within 3 years majority of upper middle class households will have 3D printer just like they have paper printer. I don't have a paper printer anymore, and I wonder how many households still do. I'd wager that more households got rid of their paper printers in the past 3 years than bought 3D printers.

sytelus 10y ago
I also don't use paper printer more than may be 5 times a year. But those 5 times are important times and these things are cheap enough for the convenience of not have to travel to some shop with USB.

stevewilhelm 10y ago

Comments from four years ago... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5640988#5641367 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5640988#5641367 I own a 2D printer and have found my use of it declined dramatically over the last five years. Given I just became a Google Shopping Express member and I am already addicted to Amazon Prime, I anticipate my desire to make my own 3D items at home to also decline over time. I do agree with @JDDunn9. There will be businesses that will provide 3D printing services using state of the art printers, high quality materials, and their expertise. Bay Photo is a 2D example of this kind of service. They will deliver the results quickly, cheaply, and reliably using distribution services like Prime and Express. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4594997#4595489 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4594997#4595489 I'll buy a 3D printer when I can print all the pieces to build a Nerf N-Strike Elite Hail Fire for under forty dollars worth of materials and it can be printed and assembled in under three hours. I picked this item because it was featured in the Wired magazine article right after their "3D printers are the next PC" article. ~

bshimmin 10y ago

Having been buying quite a lot of toys for our young children recently, it did sort of strike me that a moderately affordable 3D printer that really did Just Work, where I could go to, say, lego.com, click what I wanted a model printing of, and then it all just happened, as if by magic... would be something I'd buy. I think the combination of convenience and "Wow, that's cool" would be quite compelling, even if it didn't really work out all that much cheaper. On the whole, though, I'm really struggling to see how these things will ever take off. (Like others, I have a paper printer which I use a handful of times a year, and it's never an experience I relish. At least printers are very cheap now, even if ink isn't.)

Drdrdrq 10y ago
Well, toner is, and most laser printers have sensible prices nowadays. At least with laser the ink in head won't dry out, causing cleaning procedure or ink replacement. On the topic of 3D, I don't see a market for home use, but in enterprise - well, I could use one right now if they were cheap enough, easy to use and produced quality products (or maybe I just don't know that they are? Last researched a year ago...)