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It's amazing how well the historical bitcoin pricing curve[1] matches the Gartner hype cycle conceptual curve[2]. One of the criticisms of the Gartner curve is

by pedrocr 10y ago

It's amazing how well the historical bitcoin pricing curve[1] matches the Gartner hype cycle conceptual curve[2]. One of the criticisms of the Gartner curve is how unscientific it is but at least in this case the behavior matches pretty well. [1] http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zv http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25z... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hype-Cycle-General.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hype-Cycle-General.png

dlevi 10y ago
a) You should use log scale[1] b) The same "hype cycle" has been repeated in 2011 (bottom $0,001, top $32, crash to $2) 2013 (bottom $10ish, top $266, crash to $55) and 2014 (bottom $70ish, peak $1200ish, crash to $350ish) - always reaching higher highs and bottoming out to higher lows. Therefore, zoom out and you will see that Bitcoins has "interim bubbles", but the long time trend has nothing to do with Gartner's hype cycle. [1] https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25... [2] https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvz...
- pedrocr 10y ago
  There will always be smaller price fluctuations than the long-term trend. I'm not sure why you think a log scale is a better comparison either. Note I wasn't just comparing the shape of the curves, the actual descriptions of the hype cycle match the bitcoin story fairly well. Anyway it was just a curiosity, eyeballing price charts and thinking you see meaning is a time-tested method for being wrong...
  - itsnotlupus 10y ago
    Anecdotally, that exact graph has been posted on the bitcoin subreddits frequently since 2011, each time fitting the price chart rather well. On that basis, it's not crazy to imagine that today's long term trend will become tomorrow's fluctuation once more.
  - pault 10y ago
    If you use the log chart you can see the fractal nature of the price curve, which has multiple instances of the hype cycle. Edit: I don't think fractal is the right word. But if you are using the log scale you can see the fluctuations of relative value and the hype cycles become much more clear. There have been several. Also, GP is saying that if you average out the spikes and dips you lose the "rise and fall of bitcoin" angle.
panarky 10y ago
The big difference is the slope of the Gartner hype cycle curve flattens in the "plateau" phase at a much lower level than the peak of the hype. Bitcoin's price is within 35% of the all-time high, and the slope is steepening instead of flattening.

by pedrocr 10y ago

dlevi 10y ago

a) You should use log scale[1] b) The same "hype cycle" has been repeated in 2011 (bottom $0,001, top $32, crash to $2) 2013 (bottom $10ish, top $266, crash to $55) and 2014 (bottom $70ish, peak $1200ish, crash to $350ish) - always reaching higher highs and bottoming out to higher lows. Therefore, zoom out and you will see that Bitcoins has "interim bubbles", but the long time trend has nothing to do with Gartner's hype cycle. [1] https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25... [2] https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvz...

pedrocr 10y ago
There will always be smaller price fluctuations than the long-term trend. I'm not sure why you think a log scale is a better comparison either. Note I wasn't just comparing the shape of the curves, the actual descriptions of the hype cycle match the bitcoin story fairly well. Anyway it was just a curiosity, eyeballing price charts and thinking you see meaning is a time-tested method for being wrong...
- itsnotlupus 10y ago
  Anecdotally, that exact graph has been posted on the bitcoin subreddits frequently since 2011, each time fitting the price chart rather well. On that basis, it's not crazy to imagine that today's long term trend will become tomorrow's fluctuation once more.
- pault 10y ago
  If you use the log chart you can see the fractal nature of the price curve, which has multiple instances of the hype cycle. Edit: I don't think fractal is the right word. But if you are using the log scale you can see the fluctuations of relative value and the hype cycles become much more clear. There have been several. Also, GP is saying that if you average out the spikes and dips you lose the "rise and fall of bitcoin" angle.

panarky 10y ago

The big difference is the slope of the Gartner hype cycle curve flattens in the "plateau" phase at a much lower level than the peak of the hype. Bitcoin's price is within 35% of the all-time high, and the slope is steepening instead of flattening.