Well, the wikipedia source appears broken so I can't be sure but I bet that is a p-value. In that case it is wrong. The chance (probability) of an observation

Well, the wikipedia source appears broken so I can't be sure but I bet that is a p-value. In that case it is wrong. The chance (probability) of an observation arising from random events is not the same as the chance (probability) random events explain the observation. In the first case (which is usual) you are assuming the random event model is true. http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Confusion_of_the_inverse http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Confusion_of_the_inverse