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> The key to electric vehicles is a shift to buy-by-the-ride I don't agree with this, I think the immediate market for electric cars is commuter transport for

> The key to electric vehicles is a shift to buy-by-the-ride I don't agree with this, I think the immediate market for electric cars is commuter transport for households with two cars. If you have a car with 120 mile range, and you commute 80 miles a day, you will save tens of thousands of pounds/dollars/euros over the lifetime of the car, and you don't have to worry about range issues because you can just use your other car for long journeys. That is an enormous market, and the technology is already there to provision it.

derekp7 10y ago
I ran the numbers recently -- just bought a hybrid (non plugin) Ford Fusion. Getting between 45 - 50 mpg. If I use Tesla's numbers for charging kWh and range, and at 10 cents/kWh, it is equiv. to getting gas for my car at 1.90 per gallon. Which is pretty close to where gas is right now. Now other markets have higher electric cost (and tiered electric -- so you have to use the numbers for the higher tier). On the flip side, gas won't stay at 2 bucks forever. But electric rates may go up too.
- Gibbon1 10y ago
  Cost of electric cars however will fall as the batteries get cheaper. Hybrid cars will fall in price but not as much simply because the batteries are a smaller proportion of the cost.
  - npunt 10y ago
    True. However we make purchases in the present, not the future. People who need a car today and runs the numbers will probably come to similar conclusions: they might like to buy electric, but hybrids or even non-hybrids make more sense for at least the foreseeable future, due to wider availability, good track record, lack of severe depreciation, etc. Sadly, because of the rate of improvements in electric cars, they tend to depreciate at a much higher rate as well.
    - Gibbon1 10y ago
      > True. However we make purchases in the present, not the future. For some people buying a electric car makes sense now. And government subsidies work to tip the balance sheet in favor of now rather than later. > Sadly, because of the rate of improvements in electric cars, they tend to depreciate at a much higher rate as well. Means you can buy them on the used market for cheap. Price out used Nissan Leafs on craigslist.
gumby 10y ago
> the immediate market for electric cars is commuter transport for households with two cars. There is plenty of evidence that people don't want this. In fact I invested in a now failed company 15 years ago (Corbin Motors/Sparrow) whose business was predicated on this idea (Corbin had its own problems, but this caused me to dig into the market dynamics). Several companies in the US and Europe have gone bust with this model. Sure, some people can afford to have a spare car for week ends, but not the majority. When they buy a car they typically want a "do everything" vehicle because it's typically the household's largest or second largest investment. The beige is that mummy drives the big SUV kids+weekend car, daddy drives a commuter car which is slightly more powerful than needed in order that he not feel emasculated.
- Alupis 10y ago
  > Sure, some people can afford to have a spare car for week ends, but not the majority. When they buy a car they typically want a "do everything" vehicle because it's typically the household's largest or second largest investment You seem to be focused on single-car households - something that is incredibly uncommon in rural areas/suburbs. Most people living in suburbs/rural areas commute to work, but not more than maybe a dozen miles or so. There are cases where people need to commute farther, but commuting more than average range of an EV is uncommon as well. So, this is where the second car as a EV fits nicely. One household member takes one car to work, the other takes the other car... > The beige is that mummy drives the big SUV kids+weekend car, daddy drives a commuter car which is slightly more powerful than needed in order that he not feel emasculated. This seems to contradict your earlier argument. In this scenario, the EV would replace the commuter car... > In fact I invested in a now failed company 15 years ago 15 years is a long time, and markets change. Perhaps you were "too early". New car companies have difficulty getting traction (Tesla being an exception, not the norm, and even then, their traction is minuscule compared to the broader market). Most people are going to stick with the main car brands, or a specific brand (due to brand loyalty). Just because a new EV car company failed 15 years ago doesn't mean existing brands can't succeed today.
- chiph 10y ago
  I think the problem with the Sparrow is self-evident: It was amazingly unattractive. And it didn't help that it was used as the basis for a evil villain's car in Austin Powers Goldmember http://pics.imcdb.org/0is171/powers18.3218.jpg http://pics.imcdb.org/0is171/powers18.3218.jpg

derekp7 10y ago

I ran the numbers recently -- just bought a hybrid (non plugin) Ford Fusion. Getting between 45 - 50 mpg. If I use Tesla's numbers for charging kWh and range, and at 10 cents/kWh, it is equiv. to getting gas for my car at 1.90 per gallon. Which is pretty close to where gas is right now. Now other markets have higher electric cost (and tiered electric -- so you have to use the numbers for the higher tier). On the flip side, gas won't stay at 2 bucks forever. But electric rates may go up too.

Gibbon1 10y ago
Cost of electric cars however will fall as the batteries get cheaper. Hybrid cars will fall in price but not as much simply because the batteries are a smaller proportion of the cost.
- npunt 10y ago
  True. However we make purchases in the present, not the future. People who need a car today and runs the numbers will probably come to similar conclusions: they might like to buy electric, but hybrids or even non-hybrids make more sense for at least the foreseeable future, due to wider availability, good track record, lack of severe depreciation, etc. Sadly, because of the rate of improvements in electric cars, they tend to depreciate at a much higher rate as well.
  - Gibbon1 10y ago
    > True. However we make purchases in the present, not the future. For some people buying a electric car makes sense now. And government subsidies work to tip the balance sheet in favor of now rather than later. > Sadly, because of the rate of improvements in electric cars, they tend to depreciate at a much higher rate as well. Means you can buy them on the used market for cheap. Price out used Nissan Leafs on craigslist.

gumby 10y ago

> the immediate market for electric cars is commuter transport for households with two cars. There is plenty of evidence that people don't want this. In fact I invested in a now failed company 15 years ago (Corbin Motors/Sparrow) whose business was predicated on this idea (Corbin had its own problems, but this caused me to dig into the market dynamics). Several companies in the US and Europe have gone bust with this model. Sure, some people can afford to have a spare car for week ends, but not the majority. When they buy a car they typically want a "do everything" vehicle because it's typically the household's largest or second largest investment. The beige is that mummy drives the big SUV kids+weekend car, daddy drives a commuter car which is slightly more powerful than needed in order that he not feel emasculated.

Alupis 10y ago
> Sure, some people can afford to have a spare car for week ends, but not the majority. When they buy a car they typically want a "do everything" vehicle because it's typically the household's largest or second largest investment You seem to be focused on single-car households - something that is incredibly uncommon in rural areas/suburbs. Most people living in suburbs/rural areas commute to work, but not more than maybe a dozen miles or so. There are cases where people need to commute farther, but commuting more than average range of an EV is uncommon as well. So, this is where the second car as a EV fits nicely. One household member takes one car to work, the other takes the other car... > The beige is that mummy drives the big SUV kids+weekend car, daddy drives a commuter car which is slightly more powerful than needed in order that he not feel emasculated. This seems to contradict your earlier argument. In this scenario, the EV would replace the commuter car... > In fact I invested in a now failed company 15 years ago 15 years is a long time, and markets change. Perhaps you were "too early". New car companies have difficulty getting traction (Tesla being an exception, not the norm, and even then, their traction is minuscule compared to the broader market). Most people are going to stick with the main car brands, or a specific brand (due to brand loyalty). Just because a new EV car company failed 15 years ago doesn't mean existing brands can't succeed today.
chiph 10y ago
I think the problem with the Sparrow is self-evident: It was amazingly unattractive. And it didn't help that it was used as the basis for a evil villain's car in Austin Powers Goldmember http://pics.imcdb.org/0is171/powers18.3218.jpg http://pics.imcdb.org/0is171/powers18.3218.jpg