"1. Trump will spend, reduce taxes, increase debt, and therefore US interest rates will have to go up. (This happens whenever a government promises to spend a l

"1. Trump will spend, reduce taxes, increase debt, and therefore US interest rates will have to go up. (This happens whenever a government promises to spend a lot on infrastructure improvements.)" Yes - all else being equal ... However, consider that if Europe goes over the brink and China has a serious property (or other) bust the flight to safety could push US interest rates even lower than they have been.