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There is absolutely no way Uber will have fully self-driving cars in a few years (a car that picks you up without a driver). If anything is going to save Uber,

There is absolutely no way Uber will have fully self-driving cars in a few years (a car that picks you up without a driver). If anything is going to save Uber, it's going to be Otto. Self-driving trucks are a much easier technical problem and the market is the better part of a trillion dollars just in the US.

Hydraulix989 10y ago
Right, "driverless cars" are still at least 10 years away, probably 20.
- BipolarElsa 10y ago
  I don't think we'll have anything close to a pure "driverless car" until at least middle of the 21st century, if not later. People have been making wild predictions for hundreds of years. Most of them aren't true. The "autonomous vehicle" hype circlejerk on HN is friggin' strong as a 1000 Suns. I'm sorry to say this, but it's just not going to happen on the timeline that you want it to. Give it a century, then we'll see. You're basically asking for the computer to be a human and anticipate dangers on the road and have instincts like a human. That's H U G E. I'm sorry but you guys need a major dose of salt with your claims. Major. EDIT: What do I mean by "pure driverless car"? I mean a couple things: completely unaided driving...that means if I go into a large parking structure with a toll booth at the beginning, the car should be doing all the work. "Driverless car" only on freeways and some minor roads just doesn't cut it. When I think driverless, I think "no more steering wheel" ...if we can get there, then we'll talk.
serge2k 10y ago
> Self-driving trucks are a much easier technical problem People keep saying this. Wouldn't you still have to solve the hard problems? A truck that spends 99% of it's time on interstates still have to deal with that 1%.
- ghaff 10y ago
  And I'm not even sure about the 99% number. I've been told that trains tend to be used for most longer distance shipping so a lot of trucking is relatively short distances. There are also a lot of reasons I can imagine for keeping a human in trucks even if the trucks could mostly drive themselves between depots.
- ksk 10y ago
  What if you bunched up multiple rides? Like a leader truck which has a human operator and multiple driver-less follower trucks that simply follow the leader.
  - toomuchtodo 10y ago
    Going to need drivers for each of those trucks after you exit the interstate.
- tyingq 10y ago
  You buy a bunch of truck stops, and use human drivers for the local portion. The truck stops become analogous to ship ports. The vast majority of the miles are then automated.

Hydraulix989 10y ago

Right, "driverless cars" are still at least 10 years away, probably 20.

BipolarElsa 10y ago
I don't think we'll have anything close to a pure "driverless car" until at least middle of the 21st century, if not later. People have been making wild predictions for hundreds of years. Most of them aren't true. The "autonomous vehicle" hype circlejerk on HN is friggin' strong as a 1000 Suns. I'm sorry to say this, but it's just not going to happen on the timeline that you want it to. Give it a century, then we'll see. You're basically asking for the computer to be a human and anticipate dangers on the road and have instincts like a human. That's H U G E. I'm sorry but you guys need a major dose of salt with your claims. Major. EDIT: What do I mean by "pure driverless car"? I mean a couple things: completely unaided driving...that means if I go into a large parking structure with a toll booth at the beginning, the car should be doing all the work. "Driverless car" only on freeways and some minor roads just doesn't cut it. When I think driverless, I think "no more steering wheel" ...if we can get there, then we'll talk.

serge2k 10y ago

> Self-driving trucks are a much easier technical problem People keep saying this. Wouldn't you still have to solve the hard problems? A truck that spends 99% of it's time on interstates still have to deal with that 1%.

ghaff 10y ago
And I'm not even sure about the 99% number. I've been told that trains tend to be used for most longer distance shipping so a lot of trucking is relatively short distances. There are also a lot of reasons I can imagine for keeping a human in trucks even if the trucks could mostly drive themselves between depots.
ksk 10y ago
What if you bunched up multiple rides? Like a leader truck which has a human operator and multiple driver-less follower trucks that simply follow the leader.
- toomuchtodo 10y ago
  Going to need drivers for each of those trucks after you exit the interstate.
tyingq 10y ago
You buy a bunch of truck stops, and use human drivers for the local portion. The truck stops become analogous to ship ports. The vast majority of the miles are then automated.