8 ms·

It kind of feels like a five-year-old trying to make a song. Which seems good - now they only need to improve the mechanisms and who know, maybe we'll get to th

by d33 10y ago

It kind of feels like a five-year-old trying to make a song. Which seems good - now they only need to improve the mechanisms and who know, maybe we'll get to the point when it's a ten-year-old?

logicallee 10y ago
Instead of five, don't you mean "two to three"? And under that comparison, isn't it scary how much it does sound that way? Like a kid who hears words together but don't know what they mean yet? (and doesn't really get the cultural things around it.) To me it sounds like a quite musical 2-3 year old stringing words together. Doesn't it strike anyone else that way? These things are going to grow up very, very soon! We know that. It's scary. You're watching a two-year old. It's interesting to think about what it will be like when it's ten, sure. But what will really blow your mind is what it'll be like when it's 23. This is happening right now, before our eyes. I cannot overemphasize that any large server farm at Google or Amazon is doing more, and much faster, processing than a human brain's neural net. Human brain is 86 billion neurons with an average of 7,000 synaptic connections each. That is a huge number. But they are firing at 15-300 herz (because they're at biological speed, instead of lightspeed like our CPU's) - which is 7 orders of magnitude slower than our silocon. Our brain is about 3 pounds (1,300-1,400 g) and uses some 20 watts. It's not a question of "if" a server farm will have as powerful neural nets. It's a question of "when". (Also although we won't be using it, the entire source code for the human brain has to be strictly less than 700 MB, because the fully sequenced human genome which obviously encodes the full human mind is less than 700 MB uncompressed.) Guys, we are at an incredible pivot point in human history. We are coming up with computerized brains with in some ways comparable architecture to humans, and they are doing human activities. Today, in 2016, there are thousands, perhaps tens of thousands, of server rooms all over the world that have more than enough computational power to do in real-time what a human adult brain does in real time - but we lack the software. when we see advances like this in artificial intelligence, this is scary. We're all but looking at the intellectual output of a two year-old in the field of music. every single day AI results are astounding. this is it.
- ythn 10y ago
  > These things are going to grow up very, very soon! We know that. It's scary. I'll believe it when I see it. Your post has just a bit too much futurologist science fantasy wishful thinking in it.
  - monk_e_boy 10y ago
    You sound like some of the kids I teach. All 17 - 18 year old kids have phones and check them at least every 5 minutes. I mentioned that it'll be weird when they are wearing some sort of augmented reality glasses and teachers won't be able to tell if students are concentrating or reading reddit. The kids all said "That'll never happen." as if technology is stuck where we are today. They were astounded when I told them that ten years ago, I never saw a phone in a classroom. So from my perspective we went from no phones, to big phones, to little dumb phones, to little connected computers... it's no stretch to think that soon they will be glasses mounted or project some sort of holograph into the eyeball. Version 2 of Microsoft HoloLens will be cool, v3 will be tiny, v4 will be mounted inside glasses for sure. The same with AI. A few years ago I couldn't talk to my computer. Today I do it all the time. Last week I had to remember passwords, today my computer recognises me and logs me in. AI is here and it's getting better and from my point of view it is getting better much faster.
    - ythn 10y ago
      It's one thing to say "VR will be commonplace in 10 years" or "Self driving cars will be commonplace in 10 years". That, I can believe because we already have prototypes and I've messed with them and could imagine advancing them. It is quite another thing to claim that human adult level strong AI is coming "very very soon" and could happen overnight. The latter is just science fiction wishful thinking. I have no reason to believe we will ever have truly thinking, sentient computers, let alone "very very soon." Sure, our Siris and Alexas and whatnot will get better and better at responding to our queries how we want, but that's way different from an adult level human intelligence AI. Machine Learning has limits and will not yield conscious machines anytime soon, if ever.

by d33 10y ago

It kind of feels like a five-year-old trying to make a song. Which seems good - now they only need to improve the mechanisms and who know, maybe we'll get to the point when it's a ten-year-old?

logicallee 10y ago

Instead of five, don't you mean "two to three"? And under that comparison, isn't it scary how much it does sound that way? Like a kid who hears words together but don't know what they mean yet? (and doesn't really get the cultural things around it.) To me it sounds like a quite musical 2-3 year old stringing words together. Doesn't it strike anyone else that way? These things are going to grow up very, very soon! We know that. It's scary. You're watching a two-year old. It's interesting to think about what it will be like when it's ten, sure. But what will really blow your mind is what it'll be like when it's 23. This is happening right now, before our eyes. I cannot overemphasize that any large server farm at Google or Amazon is doing more, and much faster, processing than a human brain's neural net. Human brain is 86 billion neurons with an average of 7,000 synaptic connections each. That is a huge number. But they are firing at 15-300 herz (because they're at biological speed, instead of lightspeed like our CPU's) - which is 7 orders of magnitude slower than our silocon. Our brain is about 3 pounds (1,300-1,400 g) and uses some 20 watts. It's not a question of "if" a server farm will have as powerful neural nets. It's a question of "when". (Also although we won't be using it, the entire source code for the human brain has to be strictly less than 700 MB, because the fully sequenced human genome which obviously encodes the full human mind is less than 700 MB uncompressed.) Guys, we are at an incredible pivot point in human history. We are coming up with computerized brains with in some ways comparable architecture to humans, and they are doing human activities. Today, in 2016, there are thousands, perhaps tens of thousands, of server rooms all over the world that have more than enough computational power to do in real-time what a human adult brain does in real time - but we lack the software. when we see advances like this in artificial intelligence, this is scary. We're all but looking at the intellectual output of a two year-old in the field of music. every single day AI results are astounding. this is it.

ythn 10y ago
> These things are going to grow up very, very soon! We know that. It's scary. I'll believe it when I see it. Your post has just a bit too much futurologist science fantasy wishful thinking in it.
- monk_e_boy 10y ago
  You sound like some of the kids I teach. All 17 - 18 year old kids have phones and check them at least every 5 minutes. I mentioned that it'll be weird when they are wearing some sort of augmented reality glasses and teachers won't be able to tell if students are concentrating or reading reddit. The kids all said "That'll never happen." as if technology is stuck where we are today. They were astounded when I told them that ten years ago, I never saw a phone in a classroom. So from my perspective we went from no phones, to big phones, to little dumb phones, to little connected computers... it's no stretch to think that soon they will be glasses mounted or project some sort of holograph into the eyeball. Version 2 of Microsoft HoloLens will be cool, v3 will be tiny, v4 will be mounted inside glasses for sure. The same with AI. A few years ago I couldn't talk to my computer. Today I do it all the time. Last week I had to remember passwords, today my computer recognises me and logs me in. AI is here and it's getting better and from my point of view it is getting better much faster.
  - ythn 10y ago
    It's one thing to say "VR will be commonplace in 10 years" or "Self driving cars will be commonplace in 10 years". That, I can believe because we already have prototypes and I've messed with them and could imagine advancing them. It is quite another thing to claim that human adult level strong AI is coming "very very soon" and could happen overnight. The latter is just science fiction wishful thinking. I have no reason to believe we will ever have truly thinking, sentient computers, let alone "very very soon." Sure, our Siris and Alexas and whatnot will get better and better at responding to our queries how we want, but that's way different from an adult level human intelligence AI. Machine Learning has limits and will not yield conscious machines anytime soon, if ever.