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> But in the big picture, oil is getting more expensive to extract, more dangerous to ship, and contributes to global warming then used. These assertions don'
by handedness 10y ago
> But in the big picture, oil is getting more expensive to extract, more dangerous to ship, and contributes to global warming then used.
These assertions don't match the reality of what's happening.
The cost to extract oil has plummeted, and that's reshaping the world order. It's destroyed Russia's entire financial plan.
In the US it's become far safer to ship. US domestic production has increased to the point of effective independence, and the US no longer depends on the Strait of Hormuz for its energy supply. Oil's vastly easier to move than natural gas. Current natural gas production exists as a byproduct of shale oil production.
It's also becoming far cleaner to extract. The progress shale has made in just a few years is astounding. The extraction methods used today are orders of magnitude cleaner than the ones used just a few years ago.
Known domestic supplies are also increasing exponentially, which means the industry is highly unlikely to be "reduced to almost nothing" any time soon. The cheapest form of energy always wins, and even incentives and penalties can only somewhat mitigate that.
Sure, we'll have self-driving electric cards on the roads soon enough, but most of that energy isn't going to come from nuclear power, solar, or wind sources.
This landscape is changing quickly, and a lot of assumptions people hold–assumptions that are based on many decades of reality–aren't true.
Here's a lecture that's relatively current (though 9 months is nearly stale given how quickly shale tech is progressing), and does a decent job of outlining the situation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pyfVTBI4dgA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pyfVTBI4dgA
- ArkyBeagle 10y agoI just finished a (realtime systems programming) job at an oil services company. I wouldn't expect a lot of progress in shale tech, especially at present natural gas and oil prices. The oil industry in general has a very skewed vision of what "technology" means. It tends to mean PLC programming, and PLCs are a really weird, small market. It tends to mean systems integration of a rather crude order.