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Interesting that the Economist is looking at a future where oil demand is lower, but that realization hasn't hit the public yet, at least not in the US. I have

by 205guy 10y ago

Interesting that the Economist is looking at a future where oil demand is lower, but that realization hasn't hit the public yet, at least not in the US. I have been thinking about the Standing Rock protests in North Dakota, and they are objecting to the environmental risk of pipelines. But in the big picture, oil is getting more expensive to extract, more dangerous to ship, and contributes to global warming then used. Given electric cars, some fueled from solar power, there could really be a time soon in the US when the whole gasoline industry is reduced to almost nothing. I think the concept is in the back of many poeple's mind, but the status quo is dominant and electric-everything on the road seems futuristic still. But as more and more people try electric cars and install solar panels, more people will see it and accept it as the new normal, and then things could change quickly, within 5 years perhaps. And yes, this comment is intended to speed up that change.

tanderson92 10y ago
So? It's still an environmental risk to their community at the present time. Oil's days being numbered must be cold comfort to them.
- 205guy 10y ago
  "Cold comfort" indeed in a North Dakota blizzard. But I'm in no way criticizing the standing rock protests, what I'm saying is that it's representative of things to come. When more people realize we can live exactly the same without gasoline pollution in all its forms (fracking water injection, leaking pipelines, leaking tanks at gas stations, air pollution and greenhouse gasses), it will seem like a no brainer.
handedness 10y ago
> But in the big picture, oil is getting more expensive to extract, more dangerous to ship, and contributes to global warming then used. These assertions don't match the reality of what's happening. The cost to extract oil has plummeted, and that's reshaping the world order. It's destroyed Russia's entire financial plan. In the US it's become far safer to ship. US domestic production has increased to the point of effective independence, and the US no longer depends on the Strait of Hormuz for its energy supply. Oil's vastly easier to move than natural gas. Current natural gas production exists as a byproduct of shale oil production. It's also becoming far cleaner to extract. The progress shale has made in just a few years is astounding. The extraction methods used today are orders of magnitude cleaner than the ones used just a few years ago. Known domestic supplies are also increasing exponentially, which means the industry is highly unlikely to be "reduced to almost nothing" any time soon. The cheapest form of energy always wins, and even incentives and penalties can only somewhat mitigate that. Sure, we'll have self-driving electric cards on the roads soon enough, but most of that energy isn't going to come from nuclear power, solar, or wind sources. This landscape is changing quickly, and a lot of assumptions people hold–assumptions that are based on many decades of reality–aren't true. Here's a lecture that's relatively current (though 9 months is nearly stale given how quickly shale tech is progressing), and does a decent job of outlining the situation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pyfVTBI4dgA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pyfVTBI4dgA
- ArkyBeagle 10y ago
  I just finished a (realtime systems programming) job at an oil services company. I wouldn't expect a lot of progress in shale tech, especially at present natural gas and oil prices. The oil industry in general has a very skewed vision of what "technology" means. It tends to mean PLC programming, and PLCs are a really weird, small market. It tends to mean systems integration of a rather crude order.

by 205guy 10y ago

tanderson92 10y ago

So? It's still an environmental risk to their community at the present time. Oil's days being numbered must be cold comfort to them.

205guy 10y ago
"Cold comfort" indeed in a North Dakota blizzard. But I'm in no way criticizing the standing rock protests, what I'm saying is that it's representative of things to come. When more people realize we can live exactly the same without gasoline pollution in all its forms (fracking water injection, leaking pipelines, leaking tanks at gas stations, air pollution and greenhouse gasses), it will seem like a no brainer.

handedness 10y ago

> But in the big picture, oil is getting more expensive to extract, more dangerous to ship, and contributes to global warming then used. These assertions don't match the reality of what's happening. The cost to extract oil has plummeted, and that's reshaping the world order. It's destroyed Russia's entire financial plan. In the US it's become far safer to ship. US domestic production has increased to the point of effective independence, and the US no longer depends on the Strait of Hormuz for its energy supply. Oil's vastly easier to move than natural gas. Current natural gas production exists as a byproduct of shale oil production. It's also becoming far cleaner to extract. The progress shale has made in just a few years is astounding. The extraction methods used today are orders of magnitude cleaner than the ones used just a few years ago. Known domestic supplies are also increasing exponentially, which means the industry is highly unlikely to be "reduced to almost nothing" any time soon. The cheapest form of energy always wins, and even incentives and penalties can only somewhat mitigate that. Sure, we'll have self-driving electric cards on the roads soon enough, but most of that energy isn't going to come from nuclear power, solar, or wind sources. This landscape is changing quickly, and a lot of assumptions people hold–assumptions that are based on many decades of reality–aren't true. Here's a lecture that's relatively current (though 9 months is nearly stale given how quickly shale tech is progressing), and does a decent job of outlining the situation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pyfVTBI4dgA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pyfVTBI4dgA

ArkyBeagle 10y ago
I just finished a (realtime systems programming) job at an oil services company. I wouldn't expect a lot of progress in shale tech, especially at present natural gas and oil prices. The oil industry in general has a very skewed vision of what "technology" means. It tends to mean PLC programming, and PLCs are a really weird, small market. It tends to mean systems integration of a rather crude order.