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Uhh considering how divorce rates are near 50%, your assumption of divorces occurring amicably as a second-most common case would heavily depend on what portion

Uhh considering how divorce rates are near 50%, your assumption of divorces occurring amicably as a second-most common case would heavily depend on what portion of that 40-50% _does_ actually end in a friendly manner. Let's be extremely optimistic and say 80% of divorces occur amicably.. that would give us ~10% odds of a nasty divorce--which I would not chalk up to "outliers"

ryuker16 10y ago
divorce rates among upper income, educated folks is low. . . closer to 10-20% range. . . and to be fair some matches are just plain bad or green card marriages.
- alexssung 10y ago
  That wasn't the point of my post. My point was that, no matter how you fudge the numbers, it's impossible to chalk up bad divorces as outliers. Outliers are defined as 3 standard deviations from the mean in a normal distribution, so the parent was implying that bad divorces occur at a rate of 0.1% or less--which is off by at least one order of magnitude.
  - kevinnk 10y ago
    > Outliers are defined as 3 standard deviations from the mean in a normal distribution I kind of agree with your overall point, but that definition is wildly incorrect.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- dboreham 10y ago
  Hey there, my green card marriage is coming up on 18 years strong..
camiller 10y ago
that 50% thing is not really true any more. http://bestdivorcelawyer.co/family-law/divorce-rates-higherincome-lowerincome-families/6886/ http://bestdivorcelawyer.co/family-law/divorce-rates-higheri...
extra88 10y ago
~50% divorce rate is dated information, it's much lower and decreasing [0]. There's also the fact that the divorce rate amongst the college-educated (which I assume includes the software developer in question) has always been much lower. Something else that throws off divorce statistics is serial divorcers, a significant cadre who have divorced two or more times. [0] http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/02/upshot/the-divorce-surge-is-over-but-the-myth-lives-on.html http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/02/upshot/the-divorce-surge-i...

ryuker16 10y ago

divorce rates among upper income, educated folks is low. . . closer to 10-20% range. . . and to be fair some matches are just plain bad or green card marriages.

alexssung 10y ago
That wasn't the point of my post. My point was that, no matter how you fudge the numbers, it's impossible to chalk up bad divorces as outliers. Outliers are defined as 3 standard deviations from the mean in a normal distribution, so the parent was implying that bad divorces occur at a rate of 0.1% or less--which is off by at least one order of magnitude.
- kevinnk 10y ago
  > Outliers are defined as 3 standard deviations from the mean in a normal distribution I kind of agree with your overall point, but that definition is wildly incorrect.
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
dboreham 10y ago
Hey there, my green card marriage is coming up on 18 years strong..

camiller 10y ago

that 50% thing is not really true any more. http://bestdivorcelawyer.co/family-law/divorce-rates-higherincome-lowerincome-families/6886/ http://bestdivorcelawyer.co/family-law/divorce-rates-higheri...

extra88 10y ago

~50% divorce rate is dated information, it's much lower and decreasing [0]. There's also the fact that the divorce rate amongst the college-educated (which I assume includes the software developer in question) has always been much lower. Something else that throws off divorce statistics is serial divorcers, a significant cadre who have divorced two or more times. [0] http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/02/upshot/the-divorce-surge-is-over-but-the-myth-lives-on.html http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/02/upshot/the-divorce-surge-i...