5 ms·

The floods are worse this year because we have a combination of El Nino weakening the gulf stream which in a normal year has some effect on pushing tides longit

by kls 10y ago

The floods are worse this year because we have a combination of El Nino weakening the gulf stream which in a normal year has some effect on pushing tides longitudinal as well as flattening them and King tides which are caused by a lunar event, not anything terrestrial. It is an unusually event for sure but has historically happened before. This is a combination of two natural phenomena, nothing more nothing less. It should not be attributed to climate change which has it's own real concerns. Climate change is not contributing to the current situation of Miami being flooded. Attributing it to it, does more to discredit climate change and give voice to fear mongering than it does to further it's cause.

dv_dt 10y ago
If the occurrence of the conditions required for flooding are happening at increased probability driven by climate change, then one could reasonably attribute increased flooding to climate change. If only way to be sure is to wait for the data to show up 50-100 year baseline data for flooding, then by the time you act - all the costly infrastructure commitments have been made... it's another form of socializing the costs while privatizing the profits.
- pixl97 10y ago
  Climate change isn't the only thing that increases the probability. Over the long term they may eventually be the largest cause, but currently I would cite many, many other issues. Sea walls, land use changes, water pumping, loss of wetlands all affect the severity of tides. All these things could be changed to avoid issues while completely ignoring climate change for now.... Yet they do nothing. Ocean bathymetry is extremely complex, messing with one thing on a shoreline effects everything around it. Just yelling "It's all climate change" is both stupid and dangerous. Trying to stop the shoreline from moving is stupid, expensive, and in the long term, dangerous.
  - dv_dt 10y ago
    Sure thing, all the other states you mention speak to the capacity of the shoreline to absorb some amount of water increase (from any source). Independently, if the frequency and intensity of flooding events is predicted to increase in the future, one would think that long term zoning regulations to preserve or increase the capacity of the shore to absorb flooding would be cheaper than, fix-it-quick with big infrastructure projects after catastrophic damage has already occured. That's why it's cheaper to address it now, rather than wait until the building policy completely breaks down.
    - mistermann 10y ago
      ...assuming something WILL have to be done. If we can continue to muddle through for 100-200 years, it isn't cheaper to fix it now.
      - hackuser 10y ago
        > If we can continue to muddle through for 100-200 years That is wishful thinking. The clear consensus is that we can't, and that it's not a close call.
        ak4g 10y ago
        Sources please. The clear consensus is that AGW is real. That is a far cry from saying that there is a clear consensus that it must be dealt with ever, let alone that it must be dealt with in the near-term.
        hackuser 10y ago
        As a start: The U.S. military and the U.S. intelligence community; and I'm almost certain: The IPCC and the insurance industry. I encourage you to read the IPCC summary report; it will clear up a lot of mysteries.
        ak4g 10y ago
        Links?
xapata 10y ago
You missed the part where the report was discussing the last 10 years, not just the current year.
- will_brown 10y ago
  The above linked article does the same thing the OP does, that is makes a statement about Miami then points to flooding on Miami Beach. Miami is mainland and Miami Beach is a barrier island, yet the increased flooding is only ever claimed on Miami Beach the barrier island, ignoring the fact that the mainland is sea level but sees no increased flooding nor as kls points out there is no increased flooding in the Florida Keyes. Personally, I didn't know about the Gulf El Nino issue kls pointed out, but there is no ignoring the lunar events (2016 Supermoon) and so it will be interesting to see if flooding begins to decline as the moon begins to move away from the Earth for a couple decades. Again the linked article is very clear the increased flooding is attributable to tide (lunar) events for the most part. Like all articles it also fails to acknowledge that Miami was swamp turned into land that could be through engineering a massive canal/waterway system and Miami Beach wasn't originally a beach it is artificial, complete with manufactured sand. One thing to also keep in mind is the continued development of Miami Beach over this 10 year time period, which has also meant more recently the island lost land that used to soak up rain water like a sponge in lieu of asphalt that floods (compare this to Florida Keyes where much of the land is protected from development and continues soaking rain water). Again if this were a natural phenomenon caused by climate change as opposed to over development and tide events, Miami and the Keyes would see increase flooding as well but these studies appear to be limited to Miami Beach.
  - hackuser 10y ago
    With respect, I see no basis for most of this comment. It reads like an attempt to find any reason but climate change, for which there is overwhelming evidence, and for which rising sea levels have been and are strongly likely to remain a consequence. > the linked article is very clear the increased flooding is attributable to tide (lunar) events for the most part. ... it will be interesting to see if flooding begins to decline as the moon begins to move away from the Earth That is not what the article says. The article does not at all attribute the increased tide height to lunar activity; the words "moon" and "lunar" do not appear in the text. Everyone says this is a long-term problem and they do not mention any possibility of improvement due to the moon. > the island lost land that used to soak up rain water like a sponge The water causing the floods is coming up through the ground from the sea, not coming down from the sky. Rain isn't an issue. > if this were a natural phenomenon caused by climate change as opposed to over development and tide events, Miami and the Keyes would see increase flooding as well but these studies appear to be limited to Miami Beach. What is that based on? The article explains the reason that Miami Beach is affected.
hackuser 10y ago
> Climate change is not contributing to the current situation of Miami being flooded What is that based on? > The floods are worse this year ... Everyone in the article is talking about long-term increases in sea level rise and flooding. * a University of Miami study reporting that Miami Beach has seen a 200 percent increase in flooding in the last decade * current (conservative) estimates predict a three-foot rise over the next 100 years * The city is already elevating its roads * the city’s new hydraulic pumps, installed as a result of initiatives by Miami Beach’s mayor Philip Levine * Steps are being taken, buildings are being raised * what they’re [developers are] doing now is elevating the building at a minimum of 3 feet * The water will start coming up from the floor,” he [Alan Faena] said. “There’s not much we can do. That’s the reality.” * the Rockefeller Foundation recently funded Miami's “resilience officer,” the first of many in what the foundation expects to be a global array to help organize various cities' responses

by kls 10y ago

dv_dt 10y ago

If the occurrence of the conditions required for flooding are happening at increased probability driven by climate change, then one could reasonably attribute increased flooding to climate change. If only way to be sure is to wait for the data to show up 50-100 year baseline data for flooding, then by the time you act - all the costly infrastructure commitments have been made... it's another form of socializing the costs while privatizing the profits.

pixl97 10y ago
Climate change isn't the only thing that increases the probability. Over the long term they may eventually be the largest cause, but currently I would cite many, many other issues. Sea walls, land use changes, water pumping, loss of wetlands all affect the severity of tides. All these things could be changed to avoid issues while completely ignoring climate change for now.... Yet they do nothing. Ocean bathymetry is extremely complex, messing with one thing on a shoreline effects everything around it. Just yelling "It's all climate change" is both stupid and dangerous. Trying to stop the shoreline from moving is stupid, expensive, and in the long term, dangerous.
- dv_dt 10y ago
  Sure thing, all the other states you mention speak to the capacity of the shoreline to absorb some amount of water increase (from any source). Independently, if the frequency and intensity of flooding events is predicted to increase in the future, one would think that long term zoning regulations to preserve or increase the capacity of the shore to absorb flooding would be cheaper than, fix-it-quick with big infrastructure projects after catastrophic damage has already occured. That's why it's cheaper to address it now, rather than wait until the building policy completely breaks down.
  - mistermann 10y ago
    ...assuming something WILL have to be done. If we can continue to muddle through for 100-200 years, it isn't cheaper to fix it now.
    - hackuser 10y ago
      > If we can continue to muddle through for 100-200 years That is wishful thinking. The clear consensus is that we can't, and that it's not a close call.
      - ak4g 10y ago
        Sources please. The clear consensus is that AGW is real. That is a far cry from saying that there is a clear consensus that it must be dealt with ever, let alone that it must be dealt with in the near-term.
        hackuser 10y ago
        As a start: The U.S. military and the U.S. intelligence community; and I'm almost certain: The IPCC and the insurance industry. I encourage you to read the IPCC summary report; it will clear up a lot of mysteries.
        ak4g 10y ago
        Links?

xapata 10y ago

You missed the part where the report was discussing the last 10 years, not just the current year.

will_brown 10y ago
The above linked article does the same thing the OP does, that is makes a statement about Miami then points to flooding on Miami Beach. Miami is mainland and Miami Beach is a barrier island, yet the increased flooding is only ever claimed on Miami Beach the barrier island, ignoring the fact that the mainland is sea level but sees no increased flooding nor as kls points out there is no increased flooding in the Florida Keyes. Personally, I didn't know about the Gulf El Nino issue kls pointed out, but there is no ignoring the lunar events (2016 Supermoon) and so it will be interesting to see if flooding begins to decline as the moon begins to move away from the Earth for a couple decades. Again the linked article is very clear the increased flooding is attributable to tide (lunar) events for the most part. Like all articles it also fails to acknowledge that Miami was swamp turned into land that could be through engineering a massive canal/waterway system and Miami Beach wasn't originally a beach it is artificial, complete with manufactured sand. One thing to also keep in mind is the continued development of Miami Beach over this 10 year time period, which has also meant more recently the island lost land that used to soak up rain water like a sponge in lieu of asphalt that floods (compare this to Florida Keyes where much of the land is protected from development and continues soaking rain water). Again if this were a natural phenomenon caused by climate change as opposed to over development and tide events, Miami and the Keyes would see increase flooding as well but these studies appear to be limited to Miami Beach.
- hackuser 10y ago
  With respect, I see no basis for most of this comment. It reads like an attempt to find any reason but climate change, for which there is overwhelming evidence, and for which rising sea levels have been and are strongly likely to remain a consequence. > the linked article is very clear the increased flooding is attributable to tide (lunar) events for the most part. ... it will be interesting to see if flooding begins to decline as the moon begins to move away from the Earth That is not what the article says. The article does not at all attribute the increased tide height to lunar activity; the words "moon" and "lunar" do not appear in the text. Everyone says this is a long-term problem and they do not mention any possibility of improvement due to the moon. > the island lost land that used to soak up rain water like a sponge The water causing the floods is coming up through the ground from the sea, not coming down from the sky. Rain isn't an issue. > if this were a natural phenomenon caused by climate change as opposed to over development and tide events, Miami and the Keyes would see increase flooding as well but these studies appear to be limited to Miami Beach. What is that based on? The article explains the reason that Miami Beach is affected.

hackuser 10y ago

> Climate change is not contributing to the current situation of Miami being flooded What is that based on? > The floods are worse this year ... Everyone in the article is talking about long-term increases in sea level rise and flooding. * a University of Miami study reporting that Miami Beach has seen a 200 percent increase in flooding in the last decade * current (conservative) estimates predict a three-foot rise over the next 100 years * The city is already elevating its roads * the city’s new hydraulic pumps, installed as a result of initiatives by Miami Beach’s mayor Philip Levine * Steps are being taken, buildings are being raised * what they’re [developers are] doing now is elevating the building at a minimum of 3 feet * The water will start coming up from the floor,” he [Alan Faena] said. “There’s not much we can do. That’s the reality.” * the Rockefeller Foundation recently funded Miami's “resilience officer,” the first of many in what the foundation expects to be a global array to help organize various cities' responses