5 ms·

Market corrections in overpriced cities. Seattle still growing, turns out sustainable growth is sustainable.

debatem1 10y ago
Why do you think Seattle's growth in housing costs is sustainable? Certainly the cost increases in single family detached units have been large and rapid. My naive interpretation of that would be that such increases are a) unlikely to continue indefinitely and b) are pushing demand for 2+br apartments to unusually high levels. That's weakly supported by this data, which show a 6.4% increase in 1br prices and 8.2% for larger units. Of course, many other markets have completely taken single family detached off the table, so maybe I'm not making an apples to apples comparison.
- NotSammyHagar 10y ago
  seattle has more growth counted in the number of construction cranes than any city in the us. prices of standlone houses seem to be increasing, apartment pricing is less clear, but this article seems to know.
  - jorblumesea 10y ago
    A lot of the expensiveness of Seattle is the home prices, not just rent. Those will continue to be expensive for quite awhile. Apartment building will not completely offset the price of the city.
  - debatem1 10y ago
    Not trying to be dense, but possibly succeeding: why does this indicate that Seattle's price growth is sustainable? If Seattle builds too many apartments with those cranes surely the growth in prices will collapse (homes seem to be supply constricted and to some degree a lack of supply has dampened demand, but this might change if condos became very affordable). Alternatively, if Seattle builds out too little then prices will grow unsustainably until they collapse to sustainable levels due to supply restricted demand dampening. So there seem to be two goldilocks zones: one where demand and supply are in harmony, and the other where they're totally out of whack and the combination of effectively liquid real estate and fluctuating value overdampen to produce stable averages with unstable individual outcomes. Which is the claim here?
    - NotSammyHagar 10y ago
      You are right, current growth doesn't mean sustainable. I'd look at the example of the bay area and the endless growth there. Seattle is cheaper, less dense, has all the same pieces, allowing for lots of growth to catch up to that level.

Why do you think Seattle's growth in housing costs is sustainable? Certainly the cost increases in single family detached units have been large and rapid. My naive interpretation of that would be that such increases are a) unlikely to continue indefinitely and b) are pushing demand for 2+br apartments to unusually high levels. That's weakly supported by this data, which show a 6.4% increase in 1br prices and 8.2% for larger units. Of course, many other markets have completely taken single family detached off the table, so maybe I'm not making an apples to apples comparison.

NotSammyHagar 10y ago
seattle has more growth counted in the number of construction cranes than any city in the us. prices of standlone houses seem to be increasing, apartment pricing is less clear, but this article seems to know.
- jorblumesea 10y ago
  A lot of the expensiveness of Seattle is the home prices, not just rent. Those will continue to be expensive for quite awhile. Apartment building will not completely offset the price of the city.
- debatem1 10y ago
  Not trying to be dense, but possibly succeeding: why does this indicate that Seattle's price growth is sustainable? If Seattle builds too many apartments with those cranes surely the growth in prices will collapse (homes seem to be supply constricted and to some degree a lack of supply has dampened demand, but this might change if condos became very affordable). Alternatively, if Seattle builds out too little then prices will grow unsustainably until they collapse to sustainable levels due to supply restricted demand dampening. So there seem to be two goldilocks zones: one where demand and supply are in harmony, and the other where they're totally out of whack and the combination of effectively liquid real estate and fluctuating value overdampen to produce stable averages with unstable individual outcomes. Which is the claim here?
  - NotSammyHagar 10y ago
    You are right, current growth doesn't mean sustainable. I'd look at the example of the bay area and the endless growth there. Seattle is cheaper, less dense, has all the same pieces, allowing for lots of growth to catch up to that level.