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Reading The Big Short by Michael Lewis was illuminating. Essentially, the ratings agencies have done pretty well over the years on corporate and government bon
by jedc 16y ago
Reading The Big Short by Michael Lewis was illuminating.
Essentially, the ratings agencies have done pretty well over the years on corporate and government bonds. There is a lot of quality historical data, and a relatively small number of institutions involved.
Their models broke down when it came to mortgages and how thousands (millions?) of loans hang together. But that doesn't mean their models of corporate/government debt don't still hold up.
- rubinelli 16y agoI wouldn't be surprised to discover their models of corporate and government debt contain the same systemic blindness to domino effects. They haven't been fully tested yet, because there's always public money to save companies that are Too Big To Fail.