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> We're in the middle of the longest stretch of world peace in history. If you don't count the Middle East or Africa, I suppose.

by jdormit 10y ago

lisper 10y ago
Those are very minor conflicts (in terms of the percentage of the world population involved in them) compared to historical norms. Even if you killed the entire population of Syria you still would not still reach the number of people who died in WWII, not even in terms of absolute numbers, and certainly not in terms of percentage of world population (which has tripled since 1945).
- jdormit 10y ago
  Sure, but WWII was a historical anamoly, not a "historical norm". "World peace", to my mind, implies _no_ wars, not just 'less conflict than the biggest war in history'.
  - lisper 10y ago
    > WWII was a historical anamoly Not as much as you might think. WWII was unusual, but not unprecedented. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_by_death_toll https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_by_death_toll WWII was not even the deadliest war ever, even in terms of absolute numbers, and certainly not in terms of percentages. (Note that that Wikipedia page inexplicably does not list WWI, which killed 38M.) The last war to have a death toll over 1 million was Viet Nam. > "World peace", to my mind, implies _no_ wars On that definition there has never been world peace.
vidarh 10y ago
Africa too is more peaceful than it has been pretty much since the start of the colonial era. There are a few individual wars going on, but Africa is huge, and much of the massive economic boom of large parts of Africa over the last couple of decades has been down to wars ending or slowing down.
- internaut 10y ago
  You and I must be living on different planets. Did you just say Africa is more or less peaceful and has experienced an economic boom?
  - vidarh 10y ago
    No, I said that Africa is more peaceful than it has been at most points since before the colonial era. But yes, that means that the vast majority of the African continent is currently at peace. Africa is big. A substantial majority of the wars on the continent have ended over the last 10-15 years, including civil wars that have been going for decades. Most of the remaining conflicts are relatively subdued or restricted to smaller regions. And yes, Africa has experienced an economic boom. The GDP growth rates in most African countries over the last decade has vastly outperformed most of the rest of the world, including largely remaining unaffected by the financial crisis that hit developed countries. Africa as a whole is seeing a GDP growth on average around the 5% mark year over year. That includes the worst war torn regions. E.g. Nigeria: ~510 USD GDP per capita in 2003 vs ca. 3000 in 2013. Ghana 375 to 1858. Kenya: 439 to 1245. Sudan 471 to 1753 - you'll note this is a country still dealing with the aftermath of civil war. Ethiopia: 119 to 505. Rwanda: 202 to 638. Democratic Republic of Congo: 175 to 484 (worth nothing that DRC/Zaire was above 600 prior to the civil wars, that destroyed the economy, before it started rebuilding in the early part of this century. Angola: 920 to 5783. Zambia: 449 to 1844. Egypt: 1194 to 3314. Algerie: 2056 to 5360. Niger: 222 to 385 (Niger was slightly higher in 1980 but kept going the wrong way through the '80's and 90's). Chad: 293 to 1095 (despite being at war with Sudan until 2010). And so on. The exceptions are few: Somalia doesn't have reliable numbers, but it was heading for a total crash in the late 90's and it's unlikely that it's back where it was.Libya peaked in 2008 at 15853. It was at 4437 in 2003, and 11964 in 2013, heading into another crash. I'm sure there are a few others. But they are too few to drag down the continent as a whole. For most African countries, there was a drastic rise in growth rates around the turn of the century, following the end of a large number of civil wars and other conflicts, rise in trade - especially exports to Asia, as a follow on effect from the growth of China and other Asian countries. Currently, the World Bank expects most African countries to fall in the "middle income" category by 2025 if current growth continues. Current projections is for Sub-Saharan Africa alone to reach a combined GDP of $29 trillion by 2050, up from $2.39 trillion for Africa as a whole in 2013. In recent years there's been exceptional growth rates in some countries, with Mauretania approaching 20% year over year GDP growth, Angola 17.6%, Sudan 9.6%.

> We're in the middle of the longest stretch of world peace in history. If you don't count the Middle East or Africa, I suppose.

by jdormit 10y ago

> We're in the middle of the longest stretch of world peace in history. If you don't count the Middle East or Africa, I suppose.

lisper 10y ago

Those are very minor conflicts (in terms of the percentage of the world population involved in them) compared to historical norms. Even if you killed the entire population of Syria you still would not still reach the number of people who died in WWII, not even in terms of absolute numbers, and certainly not in terms of percentage of world population (which has tripled since 1945).

jdormit 10y ago
Sure, but WWII was a historical anamoly, not a "historical norm". "World peace", to my mind, implies _no_ wars, not just 'less conflict than the biggest war in history'.
- lisper 10y ago
  > WWII was a historical anamoly Not as much as you might think. WWII was unusual, but not unprecedented. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_by_death_toll https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_by_death_toll WWII was not even the deadliest war ever, even in terms of absolute numbers, and certainly not in terms of percentages. (Note that that Wikipedia page inexplicably does not list WWI, which killed 38M.) The last war to have a death toll over 1 million was Viet Nam. > "World peace", to my mind, implies _no_ wars On that definition there has never been world peace.

vidarh 10y ago

Africa too is more peaceful than it has been pretty much since the start of the colonial era. There are a few individual wars going on, but Africa is huge, and much of the massive economic boom of large parts of Africa over the last couple of decades has been down to wars ending or slowing down.

internaut 10y ago
You and I must be living on different planets. Did you just say Africa is more or less peaceful and has experienced an economic boom?
- vidarh 10y ago
  No, I said that Africa is more peaceful than it has been at most points since before the colonial era. But yes, that means that the vast majority of the African continent is currently at peace. Africa is big. A substantial majority of the wars on the continent have ended over the last 10-15 years, including civil wars that have been going for decades. Most of the remaining conflicts are relatively subdued or restricted to smaller regions. And yes, Africa has experienced an economic boom. The GDP growth rates in most African countries over the last decade has vastly outperformed most of the rest of the world, including largely remaining unaffected by the financial crisis that hit developed countries. Africa as a whole is seeing a GDP growth on average around the 5% mark year over year. That includes the worst war torn regions. E.g. Nigeria: ~510 USD GDP per capita in 2003 vs ca. 3000 in 2013. Ghana 375 to 1858. Kenya: 439 to 1245. Sudan 471 to 1753 - you'll note this is a country still dealing with the aftermath of civil war. Ethiopia: 119 to 505. Rwanda: 202 to 638. Democratic Republic of Congo: 175 to 484 (worth nothing that DRC/Zaire was above 600 prior to the civil wars, that destroyed the economy, before it started rebuilding in the early part of this century. Angola: 920 to 5783. Zambia: 449 to 1844. Egypt: 1194 to 3314. Algerie: 2056 to 5360. Niger: 222 to 385 (Niger was slightly higher in 1980 but kept going the wrong way through the '80's and 90's). Chad: 293 to 1095 (despite being at war with Sudan until 2010). And so on. The exceptions are few: Somalia doesn't have reliable numbers, but it was heading for a total crash in the late 90's and it's unlikely that it's back where it was.Libya peaked in 2008 at 15853. It was at 4437 in 2003, and 11964 in 2013, heading into another crash. I'm sure there are a few others. But they are too few to drag down the continent as a whole. For most African countries, there was a drastic rise in growth rates around the turn of the century, following the end of a large number of civil wars and other conflicts, rise in trade - especially exports to Asia, as a follow on effect from the growth of China and other Asian countries. Currently, the World Bank expects most African countries to fall in the "middle income" category by 2025 if current growth continues. Current projections is for Sub-Saharan Africa alone to reach a combined GDP of $29 trillion by 2050, up from $2.39 trillion for Africa as a whole in 2013. In recent years there's been exceptional growth rates in some countries, with Mauretania approaching 20% year over year GDP growth, Angola 17.6%, Sudan 9.6%.