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I think the bet is that over time China will become more-less a Western society, as the old guards slowly die off, and it's better for FB to have their foot in

by bitL 10y ago

I think the bet is that over time China will become more-less a Western society, as the old guards slowly die off, and it's better for FB to have their foot in the door. I believe that is based on the progress theory, that all societies progress in time towards similar structure, and assumption the Western one is more progressive than the Chinese one. We will see if this works out; we can see there was a recent divergence in quite a few countries like Russia, Turkey etc. as well as internal strain in Western societies themselves. We can easily end up in an unstable chaos theory mode too.

a3n 10y ago
> as the old guards slowly die off, and it's better for FB to have their foot in the door. I believe that is based on the progress theory, that all societies progress in time towards similar structure, Yes, but in which direction? Is Facebook, and especially its self-aware pile of billion$, pulling China west, or is it pulling the west to authoritarianism? Somewhere there's a line whose crossing will be fatal, and it's an open question which side of that line we're on right now. Trump, Putin, Brexit, LePen make me doubt a lot of my assumptions about progress.
- bitL 10y ago
  That's exactly the question. I guess we will see... Anyway, it looks like interesting times in the Chinese sense of the word are coming.
brilliantcode 10y ago
I think your comment reflects the naivety of Western thinkers when it comes to China. Chinese gov has zero interest in pursuing a US like democratic system as do other surrounding big economies. Singapore is a good example, as well as Japan with it's single party that always wins, Korea's choi-gate scandal that exposed near dictatorial decision making at the very top (and PGH's father was a dictator) shows that at the structural level, the one party system which was further encouraged by the US during cold war against communism, shows a clear rift between the mentality of West vs East. Another big reason they are so set on keeping the status quo is the sheer amount of embarassing crimes against humanity which would almost guarantee former president Jiang Zemin an international spot light in Hague trials. Saving face is a huge component but also national pride plays a large role in China. However, the biggest reason for China's commitment to it's current one party leadership structure is to avoid destabilization with it's multi-ethnic demographic. Even my friend from the mainland alleges that there are inter-provincial beefs and people won't even do business with certain ethnic groups or province due to existing stereotypes. Given it's massive population, US styled approach would be catastrophic. Of course, I believe China must eventually become free and open but I also understand the impossible task of imposing Western ideologies onto China from the top down. Change in China must come from the bottom up, the people, as we briefly saw a glimpse of that during the late 80s. People are too afraid, chasing materialism and money, a form of escapism, and the rich almost do certainly leave the PRC to live the American dream. When China opens it's doors, which seems improbable this century (USSR only collapsed due to economic collapse otherwise it would still go on today and it's only a superficial democracy where control of the economy is centralized and divided through crony capitalism at the expense of average Russian citizen who's wealth is poorer than the average Indian), only then the giant that Napoleon was talking about will awaken. I'd welcome that kind of China. If it doesn't happen it doesn't. I really don't get the "dont-miss-out-on-china" attitude. I don't give a shit about making more money through China by throwing away my own values like Zuckerberg did. Quoting Chow Yun Fat who got blacklisted from mainland cinema "Guess I will make less money then, I don't give a fuck". Until it's mature enough, I don't think it's wise to sacrifice and compromise in the vague improbable scenario that is miles down this century. In the meanwhile, read http://chinalawblog.com http://chinalawblog.com which offers a very good insight into doing business in China. Every individual I've talked to so far that went to chase the Chinese Dream, have returned penniless, fed up, and repulsed by the mention of it. How many Laowai do you know that made it in China that was able to take their hard earned capital out of the country successfully and live the life of the communist party princeling's offspring lifestyle in America? edit: Hong Kong doesn't count as it's status and reputation it earned under British colonial rule that was favorable to Western businesses are no longer guaranteed as it integrates into the Chinese political system. As will Taiwan eventually and perhaps North Korea becoming another "province".

by bitL 10y ago

a3n 10y ago

> as the old guards slowly die off, and it's better for FB to have their foot in the door. I believe that is based on the progress theory, that all societies progress in time towards similar structure, Yes, but in which direction? Is Facebook, and especially its self-aware pile of billion$, pulling China west, or is it pulling the west to authoritarianism? Somewhere there's a line whose crossing will be fatal, and it's an open question which side of that line we're on right now. Trump, Putin, Brexit, LePen make me doubt a lot of my assumptions about progress.

bitL 10y ago
That's exactly the question. I guess we will see... Anyway, it looks like interesting times in the Chinese sense of the word are coming.

brilliantcode 10y ago

I think your comment reflects the naivety of Western thinkers when it comes to China. Chinese gov has zero interest in pursuing a US like democratic system as do other surrounding big economies. Singapore is a good example, as well as Japan with it's single party that always wins, Korea's choi-gate scandal that exposed near dictatorial decision making at the very top (and PGH's father was a dictator) shows that at the structural level, the one party system which was further encouraged by the US during cold war against communism, shows a clear rift between the mentality of West vs East. Another big reason they are so set on keeping the status quo is the sheer amount of embarassing crimes against humanity which would almost guarantee former president Jiang Zemin an international spot light in Hague trials. Saving face is a huge component but also national pride plays a large role in China. However, the biggest reason for China's commitment to it's current one party leadership structure is to avoid destabilization with it's multi-ethnic demographic. Even my friend from the mainland alleges that there are inter-provincial beefs and people won't even do business with certain ethnic groups or province due to existing stereotypes. Given it's massive population, US styled approach would be catastrophic. Of course, I believe China must eventually become free and open but I also understand the impossible task of imposing Western ideologies onto China from the top down. Change in China must come from the bottom up, the people, as we briefly saw a glimpse of that during the late 80s. People are too afraid, chasing materialism and money, a form of escapism, and the rich almost do certainly leave the PRC to live the American dream. When China opens it's doors, which seems improbable this century (USSR only collapsed due to economic collapse otherwise it would still go on today and it's only a superficial democracy where control of the economy is centralized and divided through crony capitalism at the expense of average Russian citizen who's wealth is poorer than the average Indian), only then the giant that Napoleon was talking about will awaken. I'd welcome that kind of China. If it doesn't happen it doesn't. I really don't get the "dont-miss-out-on-china" attitude. I don't give a shit about making more money through China by throwing away my own values like Zuckerberg did. Quoting Chow Yun Fat who got blacklisted from mainland cinema "Guess I will make less money then, I don't give a fuck". Until it's mature enough, I don't think it's wise to sacrifice and compromise in the vague improbable scenario that is miles down this century. In the meanwhile, read http://chinalawblog.com http://chinalawblog.com which offers a very good insight into doing business in China. Every individual I've talked to so far that went to chase the Chinese Dream, have returned penniless, fed up, and repulsed by the mention of it. How many Laowai do you know that made it in China that was able to take their hard earned capital out of the country successfully and live the life of the communist party princeling's offspring lifestyle in America? edit: Hong Kong doesn't count as it's status and reputation it earned under British colonial rule that was favorable to Western businesses are no longer guaranteed as it integrates into the Chinese political system. As will Taiwan eventually and perhaps North Korea becoming another "province".