Here are a few things to be considered, and have all be well discussed on hn. Some things we know for sure such as: - Ride sharing means much fewer vehicles ne

Here are a few things to be considered, and have all be well discussed on hn. Some things we know for sure such as: - Ride sharing means much fewer vehicles needed to do the same thing. Current numbers would indicate by quite a lot, this was before pooled ride sharing was widely used. Other things we don't know, but we will learn in years ago: - How do overall global demographic shifts change the demand for vehicles? - Will employment trend changes reduce the amount of commuting time? - Will self-driving tech be coupled with all-electric cars? - Electric seems like it will be a commodity function, but will self driving? Or will there be some other platform effect that makes the vehicle business overall look and behave much more like software? - How quickly does improved safety from self-driving lead to much lighter vehicles due to regulatory changes? (lower gasoline usage, with or without electric) - Will regulators decide to impose outright bans on gasoline vehicles for environmental reasons? - Will there be a carbon tax and if so will it be high enough to make gasoline unfavorable to electric? - Will regulators decide to ban non-self driving vehicles for safety reasons? Presumably, this would remove old cars from the road quickly. - Will continued improvements in electric vehicle manufacturing lead to dramatically more favorable economics over gasoline vehicles? (This seems very possible to me, given the simplification of electric motors.) - Will major ride sharing companies get exclusive transportation rights to municipalities or even nation-states? Will those ride sharing companies be manufacturing their own vehicles? Whatever parts do or don't happen, it seems like a giant mistake to draw a linear line and predict how things will look in 2044.