6 ms·

Once you factor in the cost of the home charging station(and the required charging infra) and the battery and other electric components ,electric cars are(and w

by petra 10y ago

Once you factor in the cost of the home charging station(and the required charging infra) and the battery and other electric components ,electric cars are(and will stay) more expensive ,meaningfully than ICE-cars. And ICE cars are much more reliable , they don't need an expensive battery swap every 5 years. And when fuel is priced low it isn't more expensive than electricity. So yes, an EV might have some extra benefits and some western consumers might be willing to pay more for that, others won't and especially not people at the 3rd world. So only 10% global penetration rate unless there's some government incentive by 2040 and maybe longer seems likely.

sqeaky 10y ago
> they don't need an expensive battery swap every 5 years. You are right, but ICE cars need all manner of other maintenance often new transmissions or outright replacement. This is a minor issue, and is exactly the kind of problem that the GP poster was talking about. These battery replacements will be talked about like they are a huge showstopper, but the reality is probably closer to wasting a an hour or two at the mechanic or dealership and some kind of fee as they take the old battery for refurb and give me a fresh one. And someone will figure out how to charge a car on a normal outlet.
- tekromancr 10y ago
  Charging a car on a normal outlet is already possible. It just takes for-fucking-ever. You can't draw enough current from an outlet to charge it in a short span, without tripping the breaker or burning out your home wiring.
  - sqeaky 10y ago
    There will be some solution to this too, we will come up with some clever hack, like pluggable capacitors, multiple breakers or something. Or better outlets and breakers will become the norm. I had 2 new breakers put in for an office of mine a few years it cost less than $200. If I could pay this then pay half as much for fueling my car for the next year, I would do it every year.
    - deathhand 10y ago
      I think the "power wall" product by Tesla solves this.
    - feadog 10y ago
      You can already buy a portable box that lets you combine the power from two different circuits that are out of phase with each other, to get twice the power. I saw a post by a Tesla owner who uses it to get effective Level-2 charging from friend's country homes.
      - jessaustin 10y ago
        The box is empty, right? Two out-of-phase 120V circuits are a 240V circuit.
  - timthorn 10y ago
    In America and other countries with 110v mains, you might have a point. In the UK, my Ampera charges to full in 4 hours.
    - greglindahl 10y ago
      In America, most houses have some 220, intended for a clothes dryer and perhaps an oven or air conditioning. For a Tesla, a standard 110v circuit charges at 3.5 mph; 220 is 2x or 4x depending on the amperage of the circuit.
    - int_19h 10y ago
      In US, many houses have 240v outlets in addition to 110v, for high-energy devices like stoves and dryers and large washing machines. http://diy.stackexchange.com/questions/30926/what-types-of-electrical-outlets-are-found-in-a-typical-home-in-the-usa http://diy.stackexchange.com/questions/30926/what-types-of-e...
  - eloff 10y ago
    The fuse box is normally located in the garage anyway. It strikes me that it should be fairly cheap to install a higher amp hookup for the car in that case.
  - billhathaway 10y ago
    We had the same issue. Our 120V circuit couldn't recharge fast enough overnight to handle ~ 50 miles daily of commute/errands. We ended up getting a 240V/40AMP circuit installed for a 32AMP charger and now it charges in ~ 3 hours. The faster charger also meant we could time it to always use the night time electricity rates.
- webreac 10y ago
  I have a nissan leaf. It is plug every night on a normal outlet. It is a 49 month leasing. Battery replacement will not be my problem.
  - int_19h 10y ago
    Well it is, in a sense that it's part of the cost of your lease. But if it's still affordable enough, then that alone would indicate that it's not really a costly problem in general.
grecy 10y ago
> Once you factor in the cost of the home charging station(and the required charging infra) and the battery and other electric components ,electric cars are(and will stay) more expensive ,meaningfully than ICE-cars. And ICE cars are much more reliable , they don't need an expensive battery swap every 5 years. Once you factor in the cost of initial purchase (and the the new cables required) and the case and other attachments, touch-screen phones are (and will stay) more expensive, meaningfully than flip-phones. And flip phones are much more reliable, they don't have a screen that breaks when you drop it, etc.
- eridius 10y ago
  Not really a valid comparison. Flip phones basically do just one thing, which is make calls or SMS. Calls and texts are just a very minor part of what smartphones do. It's actually a little surprising we still call them smartphones at all. If you downgrade from a smartphone to a flipphone, you've lost an incredible amount of functionality. Meanwhile, electric cars, while nicer in many ways than ICEs, still fundamentally perform the same task. And if you downgrade from an electric to an ICE, you haven't lost any functionality.
  - icebraining 10y ago
    That's just not true, many flip-phones ran S60, which had most of the features of a current smartphone: camera, music player, web access (full, not WAP) over 3G and WiFi, running downloadable apps, GPS, etc. I was running a podcast downloading app and writing Python scripts on my E65 before the iPhone even had the Store.
sowbug 10y ago
The home charging station is a clothes dryer outlet.
1053r 10y ago
As an owner of a pure electric car (and a home renter) for more than 5 years, I logged in specifically to respond to this. In 5 years, our Leaf has needed new tires, brake fluid, and... windshield wiper fluid and blades. We didn't need any new infrastructure. We plug it into a normal outlet at night, and it's full every morning. We've been taking the money we save on not doing transmission fluid and clutches and oil changes, and all of that stuff and put it in a savings account. In another 3 years, we'll need a new battery, but by then, it will probably be twice the capacity of the old one. (Nissan has discontinued the 24Kwhr battery, so fingers crossed, we'll get a 40KWhr battery when the time comes). From a more global perspective, even here in Northern California, electricity is very inexpensive at night, because of all the spare generator capacity. Practically everyone can plug in their car at night, and with nothing more sophisticated than a $10 outlet timer, fuel up the fleet no problem. Will every car be electric in 2040? Probably not, because cars last a long time. But I'll bet there will be very few gas cars sold by then. Battery prices are falling over 7% a year, and that's the most expensive part of an EV.
- pasbesoin 10y ago
  Exactly. Experts have been describing for some time that, especially down the curve, maintenance costs for electric cars will be substantially less and lifetimes (less untolerated obsolescence) longer. Switch to composite construction and other corrosion resistant materials, and... Another reason not to let DRM dominate this emerging market; so that we are not faced with profit-driven forced obsolescence.
  - babyrainbow 10y ago
    >especially down the curve, maintenance costs for electric cars will be substantially less and lifetimes... There was a time when the maintenance cost of cars (traditional) were little. Things changed because now things are made to fail after sometime aka planned obsolescence. Do you think electric car companies will be different?
    - jessaustin 10y ago
will_hughes 10y ago
> they don't need an expensive battery swap every 5 years. You need to stop thinking about electric vehicle batteries like those in your phone or laptop. EV batteries have a lot more (and better) management, keep things within (or closer to) optimal temperature and state of charge which all have major impacts on battery life. Tesla has a battery pack with over 500,000 miles of simulated usage that's still got more than 80% of it's capacity. Surveys of Model S owners has shown that degredation is not an issue. [1] [1] https://electrek.co/2016/06/06/tesla-model-s-battery-pack-data-degradation/ https://electrek.co/2016/06/06/tesla-model-s-battery-pack-da...
Reason077 10y ago
Once you factor in the cost of the home charging station(and the required charging infra) and the battery and other electric components ,electric cars are(and will stay) more expensive ,meaningfully than ICE-cars. EVs are fundamentally simpler and cheaper to build than combustion vehicles. Fewer parts, less complexity, more commoditisation and potential for economies of scale. The only reason EV's are more expensive today is battery prices, which are dropping rapidly and will continue to do so. ICE cars are much more reliable , they don't need an expensive battery swap every 5 years. In testing, modern EV batteries last much longer than this already. Even after 10 years and hundreds of thousands of miles, you're still likely to have over 80% of the original capacity. In something like a Tesla, that's still a very useful vehicle. And the battery technology will only get better.

by petra 10y ago

sqeaky 10y ago

> they don't need an expensive battery swap every 5 years. You are right, but ICE cars need all manner of other maintenance often new transmissions or outright replacement. This is a minor issue, and is exactly the kind of problem that the GP poster was talking about. These battery replacements will be talked about like they are a huge showstopper, but the reality is probably closer to wasting a an hour or two at the mechanic or dealership and some kind of fee as they take the old battery for refurb and give me a fresh one. And someone will figure out how to charge a car on a normal outlet.

tekromancr 10y ago
Charging a car on a normal outlet is already possible. It just takes for-fucking-ever. You can't draw enough current from an outlet to charge it in a short span, without tripping the breaker or burning out your home wiring.
- sqeaky 10y ago
  There will be some solution to this too, we will come up with some clever hack, like pluggable capacitors, multiple breakers or something. Or better outlets and breakers will become the norm. I had 2 new breakers put in for an office of mine a few years it cost less than $200. If I could pay this then pay half as much for fueling my car for the next year, I would do it every year.
  - deathhand 10y ago
    I think the "power wall" product by Tesla solves this.
  - feadog 10y ago
    You can already buy a portable box that lets you combine the power from two different circuits that are out of phase with each other, to get twice the power. I saw a post by a Tesla owner who uses it to get effective Level-2 charging from friend's country homes.
    - jessaustin 10y ago
      The box is empty, right? Two out-of-phase 120V circuits are a 240V circuit.
- timthorn 10y ago
  In America and other countries with 110v mains, you might have a point. In the UK, my Ampera charges to full in 4 hours.
  - greglindahl 10y ago
    In America, most houses have some 220, intended for a clothes dryer and perhaps an oven or air conditioning. For a Tesla, a standard 110v circuit charges at 3.5 mph; 220 is 2x or 4x depending on the amperage of the circuit.
  - int_19h 10y ago
    In US, many houses have 240v outlets in addition to 110v, for high-energy devices like stoves and dryers and large washing machines. http://diy.stackexchange.com/questions/30926/what-types-of-electrical-outlets-are-found-in-a-typical-home-in-the-usa http://diy.stackexchange.com/questions/30926/what-types-of-e...
- eloff 10y ago
  The fuse box is normally located in the garage anyway. It strikes me that it should be fairly cheap to install a higher amp hookup for the car in that case.
- billhathaway 10y ago
  We had the same issue. Our 120V circuit couldn't recharge fast enough overnight to handle ~ 50 miles daily of commute/errands. We ended up getting a 240V/40AMP circuit installed for a 32AMP charger and now it charges in ~ 3 hours. The faster charger also meant we could time it to always use the night time electricity rates.
webreac 10y ago
I have a nissan leaf. It is plug every night on a normal outlet. It is a 49 month leasing. Battery replacement will not be my problem.
- int_19h 10y ago
  Well it is, in a sense that it's part of the cost of your lease. But if it's still affordable enough, then that alone would indicate that it's not really a costly problem in general.

grecy 10y ago

> Once you factor in the cost of the home charging station(and the required charging infra) and the battery and other electric components ,electric cars are(and will stay) more expensive ,meaningfully than ICE-cars. And ICE cars are much more reliable , they don't need an expensive battery swap every 5 years. Once you factor in the cost of initial purchase (and the the new cables required) and the case and other attachments, touch-screen phones are (and will stay) more expensive, meaningfully than flip-phones. And flip phones are much more reliable, they don't have a screen that breaks when you drop it, etc.

eridius 10y ago
Not really a valid comparison. Flip phones basically do just one thing, which is make calls or SMS. Calls and texts are just a very minor part of what smartphones do. It's actually a little surprising we still call them smartphones at all. If you downgrade from a smartphone to a flipphone, you've lost an incredible amount of functionality. Meanwhile, electric cars, while nicer in many ways than ICEs, still fundamentally perform the same task. And if you downgrade from an electric to an ICE, you haven't lost any functionality.
- icebraining 10y ago
  That's just not true, many flip-phones ran S60, which had most of the features of a current smartphone: camera, music player, web access (full, not WAP) over 3G and WiFi, running downloadable apps, GPS, etc. I was running a podcast downloading app and writing Python scripts on my E65 before the iPhone even had the Store.

sowbug 10y ago

The home charging station is a clothes dryer outlet.

1053r 10y ago

As an owner of a pure electric car (and a home renter) for more than 5 years, I logged in specifically to respond to this. In 5 years, our Leaf has needed new tires, brake fluid, and... windshield wiper fluid and blades. We didn't need any new infrastructure. We plug it into a normal outlet at night, and it's full every morning. We've been taking the money we save on not doing transmission fluid and clutches and oil changes, and all of that stuff and put it in a savings account. In another 3 years, we'll need a new battery, but by then, it will probably be twice the capacity of the old one. (Nissan has discontinued the 24Kwhr battery, so fingers crossed, we'll get a 40KWhr battery when the time comes). From a more global perspective, even here in Northern California, electricity is very inexpensive at night, because of all the spare generator capacity. Practically everyone can plug in their car at night, and with nothing more sophisticated than a $10 outlet timer, fuel up the fleet no problem. Will every car be electric in 2040? Probably not, because cars last a long time. But I'll bet there will be very few gas cars sold by then. Battery prices are falling over 7% a year, and that's the most expensive part of an EV.

pasbesoin 10y ago
Exactly. Experts have been describing for some time that, especially down the curve, maintenance costs for electric cars will be substantially less and lifetimes (less untolerated obsolescence) longer. Switch to composite construction and other corrosion resistant materials, and... Another reason not to let DRM dominate this emerging market; so that we are not faced with profit-driven forced obsolescence.
- babyrainbow 10y ago
  >especially down the curve, maintenance costs for electric cars will be substantially less and lifetimes... There was a time when the maintenance cost of cars (traditional) were little. Things changed because now things are made to fail after sometime aka planned obsolescence. Do you think electric car companies will be different?
  - jessaustin 10y ago

will_hughes 10y ago

> they don't need an expensive battery swap every 5 years. You need to stop thinking about electric vehicle batteries like those in your phone or laptop. EV batteries have a lot more (and better) management, keep things within (or closer to) optimal temperature and state of charge which all have major impacts on battery life. Tesla has a battery pack with over 500,000 miles of simulated usage that's still got more than 80% of it's capacity. Surveys of Model S owners has shown that degredation is not an issue. [1] [1] https://electrek.co/2016/06/06/tesla-model-s-battery-pack-data-degradation/ https://electrek.co/2016/06/06/tesla-model-s-battery-pack-da...

Reason077 10y ago

Once you factor in the cost of the home charging station(and the required charging infra) and the battery and other electric components ,electric cars are(and will stay) more expensive ,meaningfully than ICE-cars. EVs are fundamentally simpler and cheaper to build than combustion vehicles. Fewer parts, less complexity, more commoditisation and potential for economies of scale. The only reason EV's are more expensive today is battery prices, which are dropping rapidly and will continue to do so. ICE cars are much more reliable , they don't need an expensive battery swap every 5 years. In testing, modern EV batteries last much longer than this already. Even after 10 years and hundreds of thousands of miles, you're still likely to have over 80% of the original capacity. In something like a Tesla, that's still a very useful vehicle. And the battery technology will only get better.