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More electric cars on the road means that oil will be cheaper for everyone else. The fossil fuels industry has massive infrastructure that isn't going away anyt

by kneel 10y ago

More electric cars on the road means that oil will be cheaper for everyone else. The fossil fuels industry has massive infrastructure that isn't going away anytime soon, I'd guess their growth period is over though. There is going to be a very long transition from combustion engines to electric motors.

Reason077 10y ago
Not if the oil is instead refined for aviation, petrochemical, and shipping uses. The article seems to suggest that the increase in demand for those applications will more than make up for the decline in gasoline, electricity and heating demand. The real change will happen when EVs themselves become cheaper than gasoline equivalents. And that is probably going to happen sooner than a lot of people expect.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
tokipin 10y ago
Broadly maybe yes, but much of that infrastructure pays for itself because of the volume that goes through it. That includes processing plants as well as gas stations. To take gas stations as an example, if 25% die off, that increases the everyday inconvenience of filling up gas, which may push X number of people to buy an EV over an ICE even considering the fuel cost. So then there will be even less volume, and more gas stations will close, so you will have a death spiral. Ironically it may become harder to fill up gas than to charge your EV. Not saying this is what's going to happen, rather pointing out that the death of oil will be complex and it will be beautiful. :D
stale2002 10y ago
Self driving cars changes the math of this immensely. Your car sits idle 98 percent of the time. Once self driving hits, you only need a 10th of the cars that you needed before. And that 10 percent electric penetration rate becomes 100 percent.
- antisthenes 10y ago
  Electric cars can't drive more than ~10 hrs a day without recharging. And that's at the upper range (250mi+ range). All the lower range cars like Leaf and Spark EV will run out of charge in 3 hours.
  - stale2002 10y ago
    And they will drive for those ten hours, recharge for 30 minutes and then drive for another 10 hours that same day. Automated recharging is especially a good idea.

by kneel 10y ago

Reason077 10y ago

Not if the oil is instead refined for aviation, petrochemical, and shipping uses. The article seems to suggest that the increase in demand for those applications will more than make up for the decline in gasoline, electricity and heating demand. The real change will happen when EVs themselves become cheaper than gasoline equivalents. And that is probably going to happen sooner than a lot of people expect.

deleted 10y ago
[deleted]

tokipin 10y ago

Broadly maybe yes, but much of that infrastructure pays for itself because of the volume that goes through it. That includes processing plants as well as gas stations. To take gas stations as an example, if 25% die off, that increases the everyday inconvenience of filling up gas, which may push X number of people to buy an EV over an ICE even considering the fuel cost. So then there will be even less volume, and more gas stations will close, so you will have a death spiral. Ironically it may become harder to fill up gas than to charge your EV. Not saying this is what's going to happen, rather pointing out that the death of oil will be complex and it will be beautiful. :D

stale2002 10y ago

Self driving cars changes the math of this immensely. Your car sits idle 98 percent of the time. Once self driving hits, you only need a 10th of the cars that you needed before. And that 10 percent electric penetration rate becomes 100 percent.

antisthenes 10y ago
Electric cars can't drive more than ~10 hrs a day without recharging. And that's at the upper range (250mi+ range). All the lower range cars like Leaf and Spark EV will run out of charge in 3 hours.
- stale2002 10y ago
  And they will drive for those ten hours, recharge for 30 minutes and then drive for another 10 hours that same day. Automated recharging is especially a good idea.