6 ms·

I think China is going to be greatest civilization... or that's their aim. And with their population and level of growth they may very well get there.

by devoply 10y ago

tonyedgecombe 10y ago
They will have to become more democratic and accountable to their population first. Up to now they have been able to buy off their middle classes with rising incomes, once that stops as it inevitably will those people will start calling for more representation.
- tarpherder 10y ago
  A bit like how our own middle classes are not doing so great anymore compared to years prior and how our own population is calling for more representation. Which is why, as speculated by many, Trump got elected and Britain voted in favor of Brexit. We better make sure we are still relevant by the time the Chinese have some internal chaos.
- DasIch 10y ago
  The CP clearly believes that as long as growth is maintained and people's lives improve, there won't be any political resistance. I'm inclined to agree. We have a lot of examples of people protesting and calling for more representation when they're not doing well economically but do we have any examples, any evidence, any indication at all of people doing that when things go well economically? The potential loss of quality of life associated with such resistance failing is massive and the probability of a failure is high. The people have too much to lose by calling for more representation and honestly not that much to gain.
  - tonyedgecombe 10y ago
    This is the point I'm trying to make, they have had a long period of economic growth, people will put up with a lot if they see their situation is getting better. The question is what happens when the growth flounders.
    - devoply 10y ago
      People put up with a lot in America. That's mostly because of money. Take away the money and you will have problems.
    - DasIch 10y ago
      The growth will of course slow down eventually as it has in Europe and the US. Slow growth might still be considered acceptable enough by most as to not be too much of a problem. I don't see this happening in the immediate future, except maybe temporarily due to global economic issues. I'd expect it to take at least a decade until this becomes a problem and as the article shows, China is certainly planning that far ahead and is able to execute these plans. Making and executing long term plans is definitely something China has a significant advantage in compared to the democracies in the west.
    - simonh 10y ago
      You borrow massively to prop up employment and reflate asset markets. The Chinese government has plenty of scope to do this as they are well into the black, holding vast reserves of American treasuries. That gives them a massive war chest, and plenty of scope to assume equally large debts if needs be. They will buy economic stability in return for saddling future generations of Chinese with crippling debt. And it will work.
  - devoply 10y ago
    A good leader keeps his people's bellies full and their ambitions low... or so the tao goes.
  - daemin 10y ago
    When people are well fed and happy they don't see the need to up end the status quo. When there's no bread for people to eat then heads will roll. Therefore it will be interesting to see how long China can keep the growth up, and if there is ever a bust, what kind of change will happen. For all we know they could just go down the path of having a dictator of some form again.
    - ryuker16 10y ago
      The North parts of China did go bust (factories moved south) from being the wealthiest. Did not lead to a massive resistance.
- simonh 10y ago
  Possibly, but again Japan provides a case study of an alternate possible future for China. Japan also had a massive property bubble which burst spectacularly. It also had a single party with an effective monopoly on political power. Yet they avoided social upheaval and stayed in power, even in a democracy, by drowning the government in debt for decades. AT first the 90's were referred to as the 'lost decade', but even now they're still not out of the woods 26 years in. I think a similar scenario may play out in China. Today's excesses will be paid for by a generation of stagnation. Interestingly, Trump's economic plan will likely have the same effect in the end. High spending and low taxes will inevitable inflate government debt. In the short term that will create economic stimulus, the current generation of Americans might benefit, but America may well be looking at persistent stagnation for a generation or more after.
  - adrianN 10y ago
    Japan was hit by a recession around 2012 (or the aging workforce starts to play a bigger role), but before that the GDP per capita development wasn't actually that bad. http://www.economist.com/node/10852462 http://www.economist.com/node/10852462
- baq 10y ago
  > They will have to become more democratic and accountable to their population first. I respectfully disagree. There is no need to do it as long as near total control over information is possible - and it is . Western, money-and-profit-oriented business don't see or don't care that any help they deliver in exchange for money will kill them later when internal-external asymmetry of Chinese economical and political system becomes too cumbersome to deal with. China is positioning itself as a global monopoly externally but cutthroat capitalism internally. External players are allowed in only if they bring more than they take out - again, they might not notice or not think it's a problem.
- bjshepard 10y ago
  This is a plenty democratic place, I recommend coming and observing it with your eyes, asking people here questions, and assessing the history of the revolution yourself.
  - curun1r 10y ago
    With all due respect... I have been there. I went on a business trip to visit our offshore development office in Beijing. A few of the devs went sightseeing with me one weekend and we ended up going to see the forbidden city. The cab dropped us off at Tienamen Square and I asked if we could spend some time there before going across the street. There was general consternation as to why I was interested in such a boring place. I said I wanted to see where the iconic photo of the man standing in front of the tank was taken, just to pay my respects to such an act of bravery. Not one of the six Chinese devs had ever seen that photo or had any knowledge of what happened there. That history has been censored so completely that very few Chinese are aware of it. You can't be democratic with that level of censorship. A functioning democracy requires and informed electorate. For proof of this, look no further than the recent US presidential election.
    - chenlianmt 10y ago
      I doubt if they really understood which event you were referring to or if they ever told the truth. My dad was an undergraduate in 1989 in China, and he constantly tells me what he had suffered during those days. So I'm pretty clear about what happened back then. I used to discuss this event with my friends and most of them had heard about it. Even if it's not in the history textbook and it's not allowed to be discussed in the public, most of the Chinese citizens who were alive in 1989 have heard of this event. I can't say children in next generations would remember it, but at least in 2016, Chinese people do remember it.
    - paradite 10y ago
      I don't understand why every single discussion about China has to touch this issue and this is the first thing people do when they visit China. Do you talk to Germans by starting off discussing how Hitler killed millions of people? Do you talk to Japanese people about WW2 and how was the experience being bombed by nukes after saying hello? Do you expect non-US citizens to start talking to you about the massacres of indigenous peoples of the Americas during the first meeting? You don't go to a country just to re-visit their dark history. Regardless of how bad the censorship is, that is just rude behavior. Show some respect first, if you are really interested, make friends with them, then talk about it, they'd be happy to discuss it with a friend but not a stranger.
- fsloth 10y ago
  Has anything really changed in China in the past 3 millenia, from the point of view of political dynamics? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_China China has had a central government for a long time. Before Roman civilization was more than a bunch of farmers. "people will start calling for more representation" No, people seldom have started calling for more representation. Rather, a portion of the intelligentsia has yearned for a system with more representation, based either on ideals originating in philosophy (europe) or out of spite of colonial masters (americas). Now, the question is - based on what philosophical framework would the intelligentsia base their request? I'm not saying you are wrong. I'm just pointing out that a european or american view of history will skew the political intuition around a framework that can lack a basis once one leaves these spheres of influence.
- k__ 10y ago
  China is a big player now, but not even half of the people there have good lifes. Maybe Russia or USA will plant some seeds of doubt in the popuplation and China will be split up in the next 50 years.
  - ryuker16 10y ago
    Not gonna happen....I mean, the Chinese who don't like it move or leave.
- gaius 10y ago
  You should read the story of Cheng Ho.
Chris2048 10y ago
What exactly does "greatest civilization" mean? You mean the next super-power?

I think China is going to be greatest civilization... or that's their aim. And with their population and level of growth they may very well get there.

by devoply 10y ago

I think China is going to be greatest civilization... or that's their aim. And with their population and level of growth they may very well get there.

tonyedgecombe 10y ago

They will have to become more democratic and accountable to their population first. Up to now they have been able to buy off their middle classes with rising incomes, once that stops as it inevitably will those people will start calling for more representation.

tarpherder 10y ago
A bit like how our own middle classes are not doing so great anymore compared to years prior and how our own population is calling for more representation. Which is why, as speculated by many, Trump got elected and Britain voted in favor of Brexit. We better make sure we are still relevant by the time the Chinese have some internal chaos.
DasIch 10y ago
The CP clearly believes that as long as growth is maintained and people's lives improve, there won't be any political resistance. I'm inclined to agree. We have a lot of examples of people protesting and calling for more representation when they're not doing well economically but do we have any examples, any evidence, any indication at all of people doing that when things go well economically? The potential loss of quality of life associated with such resistance failing is massive and the probability of a failure is high. The people have too much to lose by calling for more representation and honestly not that much to gain.
- tonyedgecombe 10y ago
  This is the point I'm trying to make, they have had a long period of economic growth, people will put up with a lot if they see their situation is getting better. The question is what happens when the growth flounders.
  - devoply 10y ago
    People put up with a lot in America. That's mostly because of money. Take away the money and you will have problems.
  - DasIch 10y ago
    The growth will of course slow down eventually as it has in Europe and the US. Slow growth might still be considered acceptable enough by most as to not be too much of a problem. I don't see this happening in the immediate future, except maybe temporarily due to global economic issues. I'd expect it to take at least a decade until this becomes a problem and as the article shows, China is certainly planning that far ahead and is able to execute these plans. Making and executing long term plans is definitely something China has a significant advantage in compared to the democracies in the west.
  - simonh 10y ago
    You borrow massively to prop up employment and reflate asset markets. The Chinese government has plenty of scope to do this as they are well into the black, holding vast reserves of American treasuries. That gives them a massive war chest, and plenty of scope to assume equally large debts if needs be. They will buy economic stability in return for saddling future generations of Chinese with crippling debt. And it will work.
- devoply 10y ago
  A good leader keeps his people's bellies full and their ambitions low... or so the tao goes.
- daemin 10y ago
  When people are well fed and happy they don't see the need to up end the status quo. When there's no bread for people to eat then heads will roll. Therefore it will be interesting to see how long China can keep the growth up, and if there is ever a bust, what kind of change will happen. For all we know they could just go down the path of having a dictator of some form again.
  - ryuker16 10y ago
    The North parts of China did go bust (factories moved south) from being the wealthiest. Did not lead to a massive resistance.
simonh 10y ago
Possibly, but again Japan provides a case study of an alternate possible future for China. Japan also had a massive property bubble which burst spectacularly. It also had a single party with an effective monopoly on political power. Yet they avoided social upheaval and stayed in power, even in a democracy, by drowning the government in debt for decades. AT first the 90's were referred to as the 'lost decade', but even now they're still not out of the woods 26 years in. I think a similar scenario may play out in China. Today's excesses will be paid for by a generation of stagnation. Interestingly, Trump's economic plan will likely have the same effect in the end. High spending and low taxes will inevitable inflate government debt. In the short term that will create economic stimulus, the current generation of Americans might benefit, but America may well be looking at persistent stagnation for a generation or more after.
- adrianN 10y ago
  Japan was hit by a recession around 2012 (or the aging workforce starts to play a bigger role), but before that the GDP per capita development wasn't actually that bad. http://www.economist.com/node/10852462 http://www.economist.com/node/10852462
baq 10y ago
> They will have to become more democratic and accountable to their population first. I respectfully disagree. There is no need to do it as long as near total control over information is possible - and it is . Western, money-and-profit-oriented business don't see or don't care that any help they deliver in exchange for money will kill them later when internal-external asymmetry of Chinese economical and political system becomes too cumbersome to deal with. China is positioning itself as a global monopoly externally but cutthroat capitalism internally. External players are allowed in only if they bring more than they take out - again, they might not notice or not think it's a problem.
bjshepard 10y ago
This is a plenty democratic place, I recommend coming and observing it with your eyes, asking people here questions, and assessing the history of the revolution yourself.
- curun1r 10y ago
  With all due respect... I have been there. I went on a business trip to visit our offshore development office in Beijing. A few of the devs went sightseeing with me one weekend and we ended up going to see the forbidden city. The cab dropped us off at Tienamen Square and I asked if we could spend some time there before going across the street. There was general consternation as to why I was interested in such a boring place. I said I wanted to see where the iconic photo of the man standing in front of the tank was taken, just to pay my respects to such an act of bravery. Not one of the six Chinese devs had ever seen that photo or had any knowledge of what happened there. That history has been censored so completely that very few Chinese are aware of it. You can't be democratic with that level of censorship. A functioning democracy requires and informed electorate. For proof of this, look no further than the recent US presidential election.
  - chenlianmt 10y ago
    I doubt if they really understood which event you were referring to or if they ever told the truth. My dad was an undergraduate in 1989 in China, and he constantly tells me what he had suffered during those days. So I'm pretty clear about what happened back then. I used to discuss this event with my friends and most of them had heard about it. Even if it's not in the history textbook and it's not allowed to be discussed in the public, most of the Chinese citizens who were alive in 1989 have heard of this event. I can't say children in next generations would remember it, but at least in 2016, Chinese people do remember it.
  - paradite 10y ago
    I don't understand why every single discussion about China has to touch this issue and this is the first thing people do when they visit China. Do you talk to Germans by starting off discussing how Hitler killed millions of people? Do you talk to Japanese people about WW2 and how was the experience being bombed by nukes after saying hello? Do you expect non-US citizens to start talking to you about the massacres of indigenous peoples of the Americas during the first meeting? You don't go to a country just to re-visit their dark history. Regardless of how bad the censorship is, that is just rude behavior. Show some respect first, if you are really interested, make friends with them, then talk about it, they'd be happy to discuss it with a friend but not a stranger.
fsloth 10y ago
Has anything really changed in China in the past 3 millenia, from the point of view of political dynamics? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_China China has had a central government for a long time. Before Roman civilization was more than a bunch of farmers. "people will start calling for more representation" No, people seldom have started calling for more representation. Rather, a portion of the intelligentsia has yearned for a system with more representation, based either on ideals originating in philosophy (europe) or out of spite of colonial masters (americas). Now, the question is - based on what philosophical framework would the intelligentsia base their request? I'm not saying you are wrong. I'm just pointing out that a european or american view of history will skew the political intuition around a framework that can lack a basis once one leaves these spheres of influence.
k__ 10y ago
China is a big player now, but not even half of the people there have good lifes. Maybe Russia or USA will plant some seeds of doubt in the popuplation and China will be split up in the next 50 years.
- ryuker16 10y ago
  Not gonna happen....I mean, the Chinese who don't like it move or leave.
gaius 10y ago
You should read the story of Cheng Ho.

Chris2048 10y ago

What exactly does "greatest civilization" mean? You mean the next super-power?