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Not sure about the methodology here. Say you're born in KY, but move to MA for college. And from there you move back to KY after graduation. The first move does

Not sure about the methodology here. Say you're born in KY, but move to MA for college. And from there you move back to KY after graduation. The first move doesn't count, since you're not college-educated yet. But the second move counts as moving from MA to KY? Is that why MA is losing college graduates, as per this study? Because MA is chock-full of colleges, thats for sure.

ianferrel 10y ago
Yes, there's text below one of the charts that says: "Those who grew up in one state, went to college in another, and then moved again are counted as migrating from the state where they attended college."
NoodleIncident 10y ago
"Note: Those who grew up in one state, went to college in another, and then moved again are counted as migrating from the state where they attended college."
- cableshaft 10y ago
  Florida has the warm weather, no winter allure. Lots of people that I know that used to live in Chicago either moved to California or Florida, because the winters here suck and they want to escape them. I also know a couple that moved to Atlanta, and a few that moved to Arizona. But for all of them, it's because they got sick of winter. Even for me, who's been trying to stay in Chicago as long as possible, it's the second biggest temptation for me leaving, outside of wanting better job prospects.
Throwaway23412 10y ago
Right underneath the article's chart: >Note: Those who grew up in one state, went to college in another, and then moved again are counted as migrating from the state where they attended college. Also, I'd imagine that this methodology doesn't affect things too much, considering that around 70% of high school graduates go to colleges in-state.
- CalChris 10y ago
  So in the KY->MA->KY example that would count against MA and not KY, no?
  - runevault 10y ago
    Correct. They expressly call that out as being a disadvantage for MA when pointing out certain types of locations are doing better on average with a few exceptions.
    - kylecordes 10y ago
      I wish they had fixed it, rather than merely acknowledging it...
      - runevault 10y ago
        IMO this version is useful data, but it would be more useful if they also showed other variations. How many states lose kids that go out of state FOR college, what % of people who go out of state for college then come back after? (made up example) Say Maine has a ton of people go out of state to get educated but then bring all that knowledge back home, maybe that says people from Maine are dedicated to their home but don't think the education is good enough there to let them do what they want. Each of those is an interesting data point with different ramifications.
        douche 10y ago
        Nobody comes home to Maine if they leave. At least not for ten or twenty years until they have dug themselves out of the hole. source: Native Mainer, who moved to New Hampshire to get a decent job, who would love to go back home if the whole remote IT job revolution ever actually happens.
        runevault 10y ago
        I sort of thought that might be the case but it was the first thing other than my own home state to come to mind because my Dad is planning a trip up there for next year.
ghaff 10y ago
Yeah. It's unclear to me what's being shown here. Sure you can construct selective narratives. Young people are moving to Portland and Seattle even faster than California because they can't afford to live in California any longer and the cool urban west is where it's at! But then you'd have to explain why South Carolina and Georgia have such high net immigration and why the Northeast generally is so negative. I suspect, as you say, that you need to factor in colleges explicitly. The methodology is given but it makes me question what this show in a meaningful way.
- fma 10y ago
  Georgia is easy to explain. Well, more like Atlanta is easy to explain. No one cares about the rest of Georgia (I lived in middle Georgia for 4 years, wasn't pleasant) Atlanta has cheap housing and good and growing jobs. Warm weather, few hours from the beach, few hours from the mountain. It has a little bit of everything. Tons of companies building new offices. Construction everywhere to accommodate jobs and people. Mercedes headquarter moved here from New Jersey. GM located a huge tech center, etc. Now, on the map it has Florida with a net gain. I'm from Florida, went to college in Florida...left for work. I don't know what college grads are going to Florida for...lots of my classmates left Florida, and some actually came to Atlanta.
rayiner 10y ago
The methodology makes the whole study suspect. New York, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Pennsylvania have lots of universities that attract out of state students. They get dinged for out of state students who go to college there and leave the state for work, but get no credit for out of state students who come for college and stay. It's possible that the overall effect of out of state students is small but we have no way of verifying that with the data presented.
- Steko 10y ago
  > The methodology makes the whole study suspect. No it doesn't, it's a footnote that affects a few states significantly but has little impact on the bigger conclusion about inland states losing out to coastal areas.
  - rayiner 10y ago
    The footnote doesn't provide the information that permits you to conclude it affects only a few states significantly.
    - Steko 10y ago
      Not sure why you would expect it to. The footnote clarifies how they classified people in one case that could have been counted in different ways.
      - rayiner 10y ago
        Without that information, you cannot draw conclusions about the size of the effect of how they treat out of state students. And if you can't draw conclusions about the size of the confounding effect, you can't trust anything in the chart.
        Steko 10y ago
        Yes, you have to draw on some common knowledge outside information to know that the size of the effect is not large. Footnotes aren't there to handhold us all the way from set theory axioms to sociological conclusions. There are a host of potential confounding effects that could be large but common sense tells us probably aren't for various reasons. This is one of those.
wyldfire 10y ago
shrug, you (the student) lived in Mass and then you left. Regardless of what state you went to after leaving, you are counted as having left Mass. Regardless you are a graduate and the graph still reflects "Where Young College Graduates Tend to Move".
wjossey 10y ago
My assumption is that this is all based on how the US census / American community survey conducts its research. It tracks migratory patterns, but does not map individuals effectively. There are a handful of datasets that track migration patterns, which can be used to assess movement in and out of geographic areas to other counties, states, and international territories. The ACS does provide fairly granular geographic analysis, which could be used to look at individual colleges and their migratory patterns. If one were to care about the migration patterns of SUNY schools, for example, one could look to see whether those individuals stay in state, or then leave the state, upon graduation. All in all, the ACS is a great tool for high-level research, but often opens more questions than answers.

ianferrel 10y ago

Yes, there's text below one of the charts that says: "Those who grew up in one state, went to college in another, and then moved again are counted as migrating from the state where they attended college."

NoodleIncident 10y ago

"Note: Those who grew up in one state, went to college in another, and then moved again are counted as migrating from the state where they attended college."

cableshaft 10y ago
Florida has the warm weather, no winter allure. Lots of people that I know that used to live in Chicago either moved to California or Florida, because the winters here suck and they want to escape them. I also know a couple that moved to Atlanta, and a few that moved to Arizona. But for all of them, it's because they got sick of winter. Even for me, who's been trying to stay in Chicago as long as possible, it's the second biggest temptation for me leaving, outside of wanting better job prospects.

Throwaway23412 10y ago

Right underneath the article's chart: >Note: Those who grew up in one state, went to college in another, and then moved again are counted as migrating from the state where they attended college. Also, I'd imagine that this methodology doesn't affect things too much, considering that around 70% of high school graduates go to colleges in-state.

CalChris 10y ago
So in the KY->MA->KY example that would count against MA and not KY, no?
- runevault 10y ago
  Correct. They expressly call that out as being a disadvantage for MA when pointing out certain types of locations are doing better on average with a few exceptions.
  - kylecordes 10y ago
    I wish they had fixed it, rather than merely acknowledging it...
    - runevault 10y ago
      IMO this version is useful data, but it would be more useful if they also showed other variations. How many states lose kids that go out of state FOR college, what % of people who go out of state for college then come back after? (made up example) Say Maine has a ton of people go out of state to get educated but then bring all that knowledge back home, maybe that says people from Maine are dedicated to their home but don't think the education is good enough there to let them do what they want. Each of those is an interesting data point with different ramifications.
      - douche 10y ago
        Nobody comes home to Maine if they leave. At least not for ten or twenty years until they have dug themselves out of the hole. source: Native Mainer, who moved to New Hampshire to get a decent job, who would love to go back home if the whole remote IT job revolution ever actually happens.
        runevault 10y ago
        I sort of thought that might be the case but it was the first thing other than my own home state to come to mind because my Dad is planning a trip up there for next year.

ghaff 10y ago

Yeah. It's unclear to me what's being shown here. Sure you can construct selective narratives. Young people are moving to Portland and Seattle even faster than California because they can't afford to live in California any longer and the cool urban west is where it's at! But then you'd have to explain why South Carolina and Georgia have such high net immigration and why the Northeast generally is so negative. I suspect, as you say, that you need to factor in colleges explicitly. The methodology is given but it makes me question what this show in a meaningful way.

fma 10y ago
Georgia is easy to explain. Well, more like Atlanta is easy to explain. No one cares about the rest of Georgia (I lived in middle Georgia for 4 years, wasn't pleasant) Atlanta has cheap housing and good and growing jobs. Warm weather, few hours from the beach, few hours from the mountain. It has a little bit of everything. Tons of companies building new offices. Construction everywhere to accommodate jobs and people. Mercedes headquarter moved here from New Jersey. GM located a huge tech center, etc. Now, on the map it has Florida with a net gain. I'm from Florida, went to college in Florida...left for work. I don't know what college grads are going to Florida for...lots of my classmates left Florida, and some actually came to Atlanta.

rayiner 10y ago

The methodology makes the whole study suspect. New York, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Pennsylvania have lots of universities that attract out of state students. They get dinged for out of state students who go to college there and leave the state for work, but get no credit for out of state students who come for college and stay. It's possible that the overall effect of out of state students is small but we have no way of verifying that with the data presented.

Steko 10y ago
> The methodology makes the whole study suspect. No it doesn't, it's a footnote that affects a few states significantly but has little impact on the bigger conclusion about inland states losing out to coastal areas.
- rayiner 10y ago
  The footnote doesn't provide the information that permits you to conclude it affects only a few states significantly.
  - Steko 10y ago
    Not sure why you would expect it to. The footnote clarifies how they classified people in one case that could have been counted in different ways.
    - rayiner 10y ago
      Without that information, you cannot draw conclusions about the size of the effect of how they treat out of state students. And if you can't draw conclusions about the size of the confounding effect, you can't trust anything in the chart.
      - Steko 10y ago
        Yes, you have to draw on some common knowledge outside information to know that the size of the effect is not large. Footnotes aren't there to handhold us all the way from set theory axioms to sociological conclusions. There are a host of potential confounding effects that could be large but common sense tells us probably aren't for various reasons. This is one of those.

wyldfire 10y ago

shrug, you (the student) lived in Mass and then you left. Regardless of what state you went to after leaving, you are counted as having left Mass. Regardless you are a graduate and the graph still reflects "Where Young College Graduates Tend to Move".

wjossey 10y ago

My assumption is that this is all based on how the US census / American community survey conducts its research. It tracks migratory patterns, but does not map individuals effectively. There are a handful of datasets that track migration patterns, which can be used to assess movement in and out of geographic areas to other counties, states, and international territories. The ACS does provide fairly granular geographic analysis, which could be used to look at individual colleges and their migratory patterns. If one were to care about the migration patterns of SUNY schools, for example, one could look to see whether those individuals stay in state, or then leave the state, upon graduation. All in all, the ACS is a great tool for high-level research, but often opens more questions than answers.