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>> one by one my dear, one by one. atleast you'll agree that this move makes most of the cash traceable, right? > Last time I checked its still legal to trade i

>> one by one my dear, one by one. atleast you'll agree that this move makes most of the cash traceable, right? > Last time I checked its still legal to trade in cash. They didn't ban cash, they just swapped notes. And bulk of the black wealth isn't even in cash. And How are they going to acquire the swapped cash? by declaring the assets and income so they's come under IT radar, right? isnt that the core reason behind doing this? to connect money with individual. Once the money is 'whited' how willing do you think after this they'll be willing again to turn it into black & go through this ever painful cycle again? What do you think happens to the 60/40 real estate transactions after this? why do you think real estate prices are falling? Its because its pricing in the writing on the wall. So if you take away real estate how many major avenues are left out there to park black money? So ya you can have your dark cash you cant just cant buy a whole lot with it. In fact I thought as a side effect this would be great time for cryptocurrencies in India. >> That's really some strange definition of getting fleeced, because salaried classes don't even contribute to the bulk of the taxes. Ah yes, the romney 47% argument. the problem with these arguments is it conveniently ignores the actual portion of overall income that goes to salaried class. and do this over decades & you've got massive wealth inequality thats baked into the system where if anything is done to reverse it quickly gets labeled as socialism/populism. >> This is also known as 'slowing the growth'. yes, I agree in short term, but look at multiplier effects in longer term. if most transactions are white there is less chances of money getting parked into rentseeking assets like realestate. realestate falling is good for economy as one mans income is another mans expenses otherwise. more productive assets & more vibrant economy. Do think about this. >> But none of this fixed any problem. Not yet, but its only been a week. these are the birth pangs of a new India. the real question is will you start seeing things turn around before the next elections or not. I think so ;-)

kamaal 10y ago
>>And How are they going to acquire the swapped cash? by declaring the assets and income so they's come under IT radar, right? isnt that the core reason behind doing this? to connect money with individual. Once the money is 'whited' how willing do you think after this they'll be willing again to turn it into black & go through this ever painful cycle again? This thing got discussed over last time too. The very assumption that every one has a bank account. Or should have a bank account is broken beyond explanation. If you are already convinced that the whole world owes it to you in some way to follow your advice. You are already at a level where you will unlikely never listen to the other side of the story at all. >>What do you think happens to the 60/40 real estate transactions after this? A more interesting what happens to all those expensive flats your dearly middle class bought? My guess is nothing much will likely change in the Real Estate domain 5-6 years from now unless there is mass fall in demand due to something like a multi year recession. But those who already bought will likely see 60% of the net value of their flat go to drain. No one will buy and old deprecating flat for an expensive price when new ones are there at a discount. >>why do you think real estate prices are falling? Its because its pricing in the writing on the wall. Those are local minimas. Those trends won't last even a few months. Unless there is a multi year recession. Its not the new properties that are at risk. Its those which are already sold. >>So if you take away real estate how many major avenues are left out there to park black money? Black cash isn't there is all to it. Houses are expensive because people look at them as investment vehicles, even with white buying this is unlikely to change. >>In fact I thought as a side effect this would be great time for cryptocurrencies in India. I thought you wanted accountability and traceability. Anonymity seems to be the cornerstone for cryptocurrencies. >>Ah yes, the romney 47% argument. the problem with these arguments is it conveniently ignores the actual portion of overall income that goes to salaried class. and do this over decades & you've got massive wealth inequality thats baked into the system where if anything is done to reverse it quickly gets labeled as socialism/populism. Let me get this straight. Salaried middle class remains in the stagnant hell hole not because of taxes. But because they are too lazy to work outside 9-5, too very self protective to take any meaningful risks. And beyond all this they think a lot of jobs(which actually pay well) are beneath them. >>Not yet, but its only been a week. these are the birth pangs of a new India. the real question is will you start seeing things turn around before the next elections or not. I think so ;-) I admire your zeal. But the problem in India is people and their dishonesty. People want to be corrupt. In fact the very same middle class salaried people you sympathize with will do the very same if given an opportunity. You can't force people to be honest, nor force them to be dishonest. They will do whatever is in their best interest.
- DesiLurker 10y ago
  Apologies for delay in response.. work firefights >>What do you think happens to the 60/40 real estate transactions after this? > A more interesting what happens to all those expensive flats your dearly middle class bought? > My guess is nothing much will likely change in the Real Estate domain 5-6 years from now unless there is mass fall > in demand due to something like a multi year recession. I have many friends in real estate construction business & one thing they agree on is over next few years RE is fked. the folks who bought RE over last few years are screwed too especially first time buyers BUT thats a by product of a step change in any system & at any point if you take black money out thats inevitable (unless they start doing the wallstreet MBS thing). But one good thing is that housing will become a lot more affordable to little guy & not just some deep pocket businessfolks or NRIs. Secondly with so much cash surplus interest rates will head downwards so that will be a relief for the white buyer. Also, there is a bit of feedback loop here (like SV housing) if there is a reasonable certainty that RE is held up by money thats not subject to usual market forces (as much) then in absence of other avenues people will park even their white money there (hence the 60/40). but if this assumption changes, RE will also not be as good an investment as previously deemed. >>In fact I thought as a side effect this would be great time for cryptocurrencies in India. > I thought you wanted accountability and traceability. Anonymity seems to be the cornerstone for cryptocurrencies. I try to keep my analysis separate from my wants. secondly things like bitcoin are not nearly as anonymous are you think, infact quite the opposite. its true that you can create a truly anon cyptocoin (like darkcoin) but far as india is concerned its too late for that. if there was one already proliferated the market with decent cap then ppl may have jumped on it but to create one from scratch and everybody buys into it .. nah > You can't force people to be honest, nor force them to be dishonest. They will do whatever is in their best interest. its a matter of degrees not black & white as you are pretending it to be. your argument is basically that if you cannot solve the problem fully then dont try. I see it as a matter of policy actions so you set right incentives for ppl so far the incentives have been pointing only in one direction What I see here is that he is clearly signalling thats going to change going fwd. In 60yrs since independence how many time somebody has seriously tried to go after black money. > This thing got discussed over last time too. The very assumption that every one has a bank account. Or should have a bank account is broken beyond explanation. If you have a few lacs of cash then stands to reason that you should have an account. even otherwise actually there are many rural programmes in india that payout small recurring sums to villagers and its very common that since these ppl dont have an account they get fleeced by middle man and lose a big chunk due to cash only nature. these folks are actually benefited quite a bit by such mandates.

kamaal 10y ago

>>And How are they going to acquire the swapped cash? by declaring the assets and income so they's come under IT radar, right? isnt that the core reason behind doing this? to connect money with individual. Once the money is 'whited' how willing do you think after this they'll be willing again to turn it into black & go through this ever painful cycle again? This thing got discussed over last time too. The very assumption that every one has a bank account. Or should have a bank account is broken beyond explanation. If you are already convinced that the whole world owes it to you in some way to follow your advice. You are already at a level where you will unlikely never listen to the other side of the story at all. >>What do you think happens to the 60/40 real estate transactions after this? A more interesting what happens to all those expensive flats your dearly middle class bought? My guess is nothing much will likely change in the Real Estate domain 5-6 years from now unless there is mass fall in demand due to something like a multi year recession. But those who already bought will likely see 60% of the net value of their flat go to drain. No one will buy and old deprecating flat for an expensive price when new ones are there at a discount. >>why do you think real estate prices are falling? Its because its pricing in the writing on the wall. Those are local minimas. Those trends won't last even a few months. Unless there is a multi year recession. Its not the new properties that are at risk. Its those which are already sold. >>So if you take away real estate how many major avenues are left out there to park black money? Black cash isn't there is all to it. Houses are expensive because people look at them as investment vehicles, even with white buying this is unlikely to change. >>In fact I thought as a side effect this would be great time for cryptocurrencies in India. I thought you wanted accountability and traceability. Anonymity seems to be the cornerstone for cryptocurrencies. >>Ah yes, the romney 47% argument. the problem with these arguments is it conveniently ignores the actual portion of overall income that goes to salaried class. and do this over decades & you've got massive wealth inequality thats baked into the system where if anything is done to reverse it quickly gets labeled as socialism/populism. Let me get this straight. Salaried middle class remains in the stagnant hell hole not because of taxes. But because they are too lazy to work outside 9-5, too very self protective to take any meaningful risks. And beyond all this they think a lot of jobs(which actually pay well) are beneath them. >>Not yet, but its only been a week. these are the birth pangs of a new India. the real question is will you start seeing things turn around before the next elections or not. I think so ;-) I admire your zeal. But the problem in India is people and their dishonesty. People want to be corrupt. In fact the very same middle class salaried people you sympathize with will do the very same if given an opportunity. You can't force people to be honest, nor force them to be dishonest. They will do whatever is in their best interest.

DesiLurker 10y ago
Apologies for delay in response.. work firefights >>What do you think happens to the 60/40 real estate transactions after this? > A more interesting what happens to all those expensive flats your dearly middle class bought? > My guess is nothing much will likely change in the Real Estate domain 5-6 years from now unless there is mass fall > in demand due to something like a multi year recession. I have many friends in real estate construction business & one thing they agree on is over next few years RE is fked. the folks who bought RE over last few years are screwed too especially first time buyers BUT thats a by product of a step change in any system & at any point if you take black money out thats inevitable (unless they start doing the wallstreet MBS thing). But one good thing is that housing will become a lot more affordable to little guy & not just some deep pocket businessfolks or NRIs. Secondly with so much cash surplus interest rates will head downwards so that will be a relief for the white buyer. Also, there is a bit of feedback loop here (like SV housing) if there is a reasonable certainty that RE is held up by money thats not subject to usual market forces (as much) then in absence of other avenues people will park even their white money there (hence the 60/40). but if this assumption changes, RE will also not be as good an investment as previously deemed. >>In fact I thought as a side effect this would be great time for cryptocurrencies in India. > I thought you wanted accountability and traceability. Anonymity seems to be the cornerstone for cryptocurrencies. I try to keep my analysis separate from my wants. secondly things like bitcoin are not nearly as anonymous are you think, infact quite the opposite. its true that you can create a truly anon cyptocoin (like darkcoin) but far as india is concerned its too late for that. if there was one already proliferated the market with decent cap then ppl may have jumped on it but to create one from scratch and everybody buys into it .. nah > You can't force people to be honest, nor force them to be dishonest. They will do whatever is in their best interest. its a matter of degrees not black & white as you are pretending it to be. your argument is basically that if you cannot solve the problem fully then dont try. I see it as a matter of policy actions so you set right incentives for ppl so far the incentives have been pointing only in one direction What I see here is that he is clearly signalling thats going to change going fwd. In 60yrs since independence how many time somebody has seriously tried to go after black money. > This thing got discussed over last time too. The very assumption that every one has a bank account. Or should have a bank account is broken beyond explanation. If you have a few lacs of cash then stands to reason that you should have an account. even otherwise actually there are many rural programmes in india that payout small recurring sums to villagers and its very common that since these ppl dont have an account they get fleeced by middle man and lose a big chunk due to cash only nature. these folks are actually benefited quite a bit by such mandates.