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> Anyone with outstanding notes must either deposit them in a bank -- potentially incurring a tax -- or exchange them for replacements in strictly limited sums
by jychang 10y ago
> Anyone with outstanding notes must either deposit them in a bank -- potentially incurring a tax -- or exchange them for replacements in strictly limited sums.
Incurring a tax is the entire point of replacing the old currency. A large portion of the black untaxed money is untraceable in the form of cash, so getting them into banks and taxed is the first step.
This article is overly negative about some negative things that are part of the expected outcome, that even the people who are proponents of the change admit. Of course there are obvious drawbacks to invalidating most of a nation's currency at once, the point is how this process benefits the country.
A lot of poorer Indians barter or use smaller cash denominations anyways, and the government isn't trying to crack down on that; comparing India to Nigeria in that sense doesn't matter. And reducing the economy of the entire country temporarily is very intentional- if a big part of your country's business dealings is with illicit cash, cracking down on it will of course reduce the market.
The idea is to sacrifice some money in order to reduce corruption and increase the trust in government and business systems. If that is successful, then this move is very beneficial for India in the long run.
- sschueller 10y agoI don't see how charging tax on cash is the solution to this problem of people not paying their taxes. They are punishing the person who lost at musical chairs or am I missing something? How does this prevent it from happening again with the new notes? Tax system is still broken.
- whowalrus 10y agoExactly. There are rumors of bigger and more hard-hitting changes by the Govt. down the line, but yes, as it stands now, the system is still broken.
- nileshtrivedi 10y agoThis measure attacks the STOCK of black money that has accumulated over decades. Govt also needs to attack the FLOW of black money, and those changes are coming soon.
- whowalrus 10y agoGenuine question, any official sources about the changes that are coming soon?
- sameerds 10y agoThis government has always been pretty tight-lipped about upcoming changes. Decisions are made, directives are sent to the appropriate governing bodies, and then public statements are made. It's a refreshing change from the past.
- mangamadaiyan 10y agoThe tax isn't on cash. It's just regular tax - sales tax, or income tax, for that matter. Some businesses pretty much run on cash payments. That way, they can store the cash physically, and not pay tax on it. The "crackdown" is to basically ensure that this happens no longer. The intentions behind it seem to be good (from my limited viewpoint), but I guess the implementation could have gone better.
- jychang 10y agoLet's say you are an honest citizen. You earn $1000, of which all of it is properly taxed. You get $100 in cash and give it to a corrupt official in order to do something. Another person is a corrupt official/businessman; under this official, there are maybe 100 people, and each person gives this official $100 in order to get something done. This income is in the form of cash, and is untaxed. If you force everyone to put their money into a bank, then anyone who pays their taxes already has their $900 in assets accounted for and don't need to pay more taxes. If you have $10,000 in cash you need to deposit into a bank and no documentation for it... you'll have a bad time. There is no musical chairs, since the money flows upwards. If you are honest, you should not get hit by any additional taxes. This is the reason why currently most of India supports the move of discontinuing the old currency and replacing it. Unless you take in a large amount over your taxed salary as untaxed bribes, it doesn't affect the amount of money you have.
- mangamadaiyan 10y agoThank you, that explanation worked better than mine. You pretty much hit the nail on the head.
- wav-part 10y agoExcept Govt is making more harder to prosecute corrupt public officials. See my other comment here [1]. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13012515 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13012515
- whowalrus 10y agoBut what I don't see are measures to ensure that people will continue to deposit money in the banks / pay their taxes. While I appreciate the move to force the turnover of black money now, what stops someone from starting to accumulate black money again, lets say a few months from now? I hope there are measures being taken in that account.
- a9entroy 10y agoIndian logic, in a nutshell.
- an_account 10y agoThey aren't charging a tax on cash. But if you exchange a large amount of cash, they will look up your past income tax records and if it doesn't line up with the amount of cash you have then you get taxed. Indian has a problem with large hoards of cash being used to evade taxes. This is basically a come to Jesus moment for tax evaders with these hoards. It is a pretty crazy policy, but this article glosses over some major points.
- jacobolus 10y agoThere are plenty of folks who think that the US should phase out $100 bills and Europe should phase out €500 bills for essentially the same reason: they are used primarily by people trying to do very large transactions in an untraceable way, which has big overlap with money laundering, drug deals and other illegal purchases, tax evasion, etc. Most day-to-day cash transactions work perfectly fine using $20 bills. See e.g. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/02/16/its-time-to-kill-the-100-bill/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/02/16/its-t... > [...] illicit activities are facilitated when a million dollars weighs 2.2 pounds as with the 500 euro note rather than more than 50 pounds as would be the case if the $20 bill was the high denomination note.
- macrolide 10y agoLet's see the US government do it; it'll be the end of the dollar. People around the world presently rely on the dollar; they'll eagerly move to an anonymous cryptocurrency (not Bitcoin).
- patrickk 10y ago80% of US currency is in $100s[1] The ECB is getting rid of the €500 note[2] [1] http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2014/08/14/340356790/should-we-kill-the-100-bill http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2014/08/14/340356790/shoul... [2] http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/05/business/international/ecb-to-remove-500-bill-the-bin-laden-bank-note-criminals.html http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/05/business/international/ecb...
- tdkl 10y ago
- moh_maya 10y agoThis move is just one of many steps. Let me first establish the context and list the other pieces (as I understand them): > India recently executed / implemented a nationwide biometrics id scheme which has now allowed the govt. to create bank accounts for a very large fraction of the population that previously didnt have access to banking. The untaxed / cash based transaction system has distorted multiple facets of the Indian society and economy: from vote buying to a distorted realty market. This also blocks investment. When 20% of your net economy is sitting in closets, it is a large wasted opportunity. > Apropos the fragmented tax system, the Indian parliament finally passed a monumental tax reform pack (first proposed by the opposition parties when they were in power and then opposed by BJP, the current dispensation in power, but I digress). > This bill, among others moves the country to a digital transaction / electronic payments based tax & transaction system. > The govt has clearly established a desire (and has now demonstrated the will) to move towards an electronic payment / transaction system, the benefits of which are obvious, especially in terms of minimising pilfering of welfare money, etc. (The national ID scheme now allows for direct cash transfers without middlemen, corruption, etc.) (You can see where this is leading..) 86% of the Indian currency is high value (denominated in the ₹500 and ₹1000 notes that have now been banned). The govt has stated that the new high denomination notes that are being issued will not replace the entire 86% in physical cash. It will be a smaller fraction. This does two things: a) people who deposit old currency notes will now, perforce, have to move to electronic / card based transactions. b) it forces individuals to declare their "black" or untaxed money and also move to the electronic payments system. So, I think this move helps significantly since it is part of a larger push towards electronic transactions etc. In conjunction with the changes in the tax system (and expected / anticipated reduction in income tax rates / increase in exemptions), this move, while painful in the short term, is potentially transformative for the Indian economy and society.
- DesiLurker 10y agolike your name
- moh_maya 10y agoThanks :)
- NTDF9 10y ago>> They are punishing the person who lost at musical chairs or am I missing something? There was an amnesty window leading up to this. Until Sept 2016, all black money could have been deposited in bank accounts in India, no questions asked, taxed at usual income rates. The people suffering now are the ones who took the Indian Tax system for granted. >> How does this prevent it from happening again with the new notes? Tax system is still broken. Fear of losing more than half your net-worth again.
- pramit 10y agoI agree. Modi should have gone after making the Indian tax system efficient. And less corrupt.
- kranner 10y ago> A large portion of the black untaxed money is untraceable in the form of cash, so getting them into banks and taxed is the first step. 6% is cash (as an estimate from last year's tax data), not a large portion. Source: http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/cash-has-only-6-share-in-black-money-seizures-reveals-income-tax-data/story-JfFuTiJYtxKwJQhz2ApxlL.html http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/cash-has-only-6-sha... Even this 6% is not all going to end up in bank accounts and taxed, because the government is insisting on a 200% penalty on the computed tax. So if you do declare your sacks of cash at this point, you'll be charged 90%, on top of which there is no guarantee that the Income Tax department will not go over the rest of your life with a fine-toothed comb. They probably will. So IMO a large chunk of this 6% will be laundered (including converting to new, valid notes) for something like a 20%-30% loss.
- denzil_correa 10y ago> 6% is cash (as an estimate from last year's tax data), not a large portion. Personally, this is where all arguments for demonetization go to dust for me.
- DesiLurker 10y agoYa this article is total BS. the estimates I have heard are much larger than that. Just a case in point, when you do any land/real-estate transaction in india its common understanding that about 30-40% of the sale will be cash outside of the stamp duty. its so routine that the bribes are calculated based on this number. Now as far as non-metro areas are concerned almost all transactions are cash. every time I goto india I have hard time paying by credit cards. My rule of thumb is if a shop has glass door then likely you can use CC otherwise most mom-pop shops its all cash. Also those fo us who grew up there its a common knowledge that the only people who pay taxes are the ones that get fleeced at source, rest just pay a marginal amount & then have an 'understanding' with local IRS official. In fact its so bad that small businesses cant just opt to pay taxes and not bribe the official so its creates a competitive disadvantage. This is the reason the Income Tax dept postings are one of the most sought after. I could go on but you get the gist. now back to the articlw in question. you have to understand the mechanics of it all. for 60 years India has had the rule of cash & a very powerful people have amassed a LOT of it. it stands to reason that these people will have fair bit of influence over media (think Murdoch). if they are going to lose a majority of their fortune how do you suppose they are going to fight back? Hence all the talk about pain of a common man & oh-my-god some old people collapsed standing in line. In my view this short term pain is very empowering for India in long run. Because it frees up the locked up resources from mattresses. also as a second order effect it reduces the venues 'black money' can find home. Also it makes almost all of terrorism funding traceable, Hell you can design machine learning algorithms to identify this kind of money movement from raw transaction data. lastly IMO it will be great for Indian stock market in long run as really there are no other places left to park large sums of money ('cause real estate is going to suffer for a bit now).
- pksadiq 10y ago> A large portion of the black untaxed money is untraceable in the form of cash, so getting them into banks and taxed is the first step. A large portion of the black untaxed money is in the form of gold, land, properties, swiss accounts, and other means. The current action may help catch many, but most of them not.
- eklavya 10y agoThe prime minister has very openly said that real estate is next. And just wait till January next year the jewellers who sold a shit ton of gold in this period will also come under scrutiny. The only thing that is not clear is what steps if any the government will take to make sure black money hoarding doesn't start again. I am hopeful we will see something by the budget session.
- gnipgnip 10y agoThere was also some grumbling about cracking down on household gold savings (now that the "Gold bond" has fallen flat on its face).
- kamaal 10y agoThere is no feasible way of doing it. Unless you pass laws to hold people at gun point and ask them to surrender all gold they have. Beyond that the government did try some gold investment schemes, which were extreme flops. With the current move I see gold buying at a never ending high in India.
- gnipgnip 10y agoIt's really strange, considering that gold-smuggling has historically been the source of funding for assorted terrorist orgs. Demonetization may turn out in hindsight to be a master stroke, but there are too many variables that are hidden. There remains anonymous routes such as p-notes that are still open for "black-money" routing. Hawala is likely to be hit very hard by this. See Swamy's latest lecture, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMx1WtpAQ8Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMx1WtpAQ8Y
- kamaal 10y ago>>A large portion of the black untaxed money is untraceable in the form of cash No. The very rich repatriate their money through Foreign banks and investments. Middle class and Upper middle class has long in India parked their money in lands and houses. Lower middle class typically goes with gold. Poor barely have money and whatever little is in cash savings. People who think rich Indians sleep on mattresses filled with cash have no clue what they are talking about. That whatever cash the rich you seen throwing in lakes and streets is more like pennies left in a long forgotten pant in some old wardrobe. There are thousands of such pants those people own.
- dragonsh 10y agoAnother Modi cult follower, its hard for such people to swallow real facts. Sense and sensibility is lost for such people who just ignore the facts. On the ground nothing changed except problems for common people and slowing economy. I have to admit Modi is very successful in projecting himself as poor and the whole world working against him, in spite of unprecedented majority. Nothing is achieved in past 2-1/2 years, and blame it on others and play poor. Hide the promise of bringing black money from outside India under the rug and target the small 20% common people. Lucky author of article is not in India, otherwise there will retribution as it happened all across with critics in India.
- dman 10y agoYour points would be more persuasive if you took the effort to mask the contempt you hold for those that disagree with you.
- dragonsh 10y agoThe points are already highlighted by the author with facts and data. I don't think there is a room for discourse when every issue has been reduced to me poor and those rich adversaries as always portrayed by Mr. Modi in every occasion instead of any real data or facts. Asking 50 days suffering without providing any solid research for its effectiveness. Based on how previous RBI governor was forced out of office, there is little room for discussion. Its just if you are not with me, you are an enemy of country that is what game played by current govt and its leaders in India.
- vikrantrathore 10y agoAgree with you coming back to the point when 5% Indian owns 80% of wealth why they aren't the target. Only targeting 20% wealth owned by over 80% common Indian won't bring any benefits.