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I'd expect two secessions: California from the US, red-state California from blue-state California. Perhaps an independent Outer California, and an Inner Califo

I'd expect two secessions: California from the US, red-state California from blue-state California. Perhaps an independent Outer California, and an Inner California remaining in the US -- I hope they go with those names! I think something similar happened in Kosovo: secession of Kosovo from Serbia, secession of the four majority-Serbian counties of Kosovo from the rest of the province. (Or at least, I hope that second secession has gone through by now; I certainly remember there was a push towards it.)

vonnik 10y ago
Yeah, and we all know what a model of functional statehood the Balkans offer the rest of the world.
- clock_tower 10y ago
  So you'd say the four majority-Serbian counties shouldn't be allowed to secede from Kosovo?
  - vonnik 10y ago
    I'm saying that in some ideal counter-historical world, Yugoslavia shouldn't have broken apart. The separations that occurred relied on a lot of ethnic cleansing to draw clear geographic lines between peoples. Without that ethnic cleansing, which is wanton and cruel, you could advocate for self-determination on a house-by-house and apartment-by-apartment basis, which is idiotic and unworkable. Most nation-states are made of several peoples, and the idea of nationhood upon which self-determinationists and secessionists make their argument always leads to a bloodletting.
    - clock_tower 10y ago
      A nation-state, by definition, is a state comprised of a single nation. But a nation-state isn't the only kind of Westphalian state -- and frankly the nation-state idea has mostly been a destructive one, although holding a nation (or other community) in a country by force of arms is no better. It sounds like you'd say that permitting secession is wrong because it leads to ethnic cleansing. How much ethnic cleansing do you anticipate in the event of California seceding from the United States?
      - vonnik 10y ago
        When groups secede, it is usually for nationalistic reasons. I'm saying secession leads to a lot of geopolitical instability and usually violence and loss, for very little gain. I think multiple conflicts would arise if California tried to secede from the US. The first would be between the secessionists and federal forces. If the secessionists did not have the support of a foreign power, US federal forces would win, and even then... The second conflict would be between the "leavers" and "remainers" within California, where the remainers would initiate their sub-secessions from the breakaway state of California. Here you can imagine the awful process of Partition in India, for example; or the Serbian minority in Bosnia. And while everyone in CA is thinking they should be self-determining, we would see other political fractures. North v south. The coastal cities v the interior.

vonnik 10y ago

Yeah, and we all know what a model of functional statehood the Balkans offer the rest of the world.

clock_tower 10y ago
So you'd say the four majority-Serbian counties shouldn't be allowed to secede from Kosovo?
- vonnik 10y ago
  I'm saying that in some ideal counter-historical world, Yugoslavia shouldn't have broken apart. The separations that occurred relied on a lot of ethnic cleansing to draw clear geographic lines between peoples. Without that ethnic cleansing, which is wanton and cruel, you could advocate for self-determination on a house-by-house and apartment-by-apartment basis, which is idiotic and unworkable. Most nation-states are made of several peoples, and the idea of nationhood upon which self-determinationists and secessionists make their argument always leads to a bloodletting.
  - clock_tower 10y ago
    A nation-state, by definition, is a state comprised of a single nation. But a nation-state isn't the only kind of Westphalian state -- and frankly the nation-state idea has mostly been a destructive one, although holding a nation (or other community) in a country by force of arms is no better. It sounds like you'd say that permitting secession is wrong because it leads to ethnic cleansing. How much ethnic cleansing do you anticipate in the event of California seceding from the United States?
    - vonnik 10y ago
      When groups secede, it is usually for nationalistic reasons. I'm saying secession leads to a lot of geopolitical instability and usually violence and loss, for very little gain. I think multiple conflicts would arise if California tried to secede from the US. The first would be between the secessionists and federal forces. If the secessionists did not have the support of a foreign power, US federal forces would win, and even then... The second conflict would be between the "leavers" and "remainers" within California, where the remainers would initiate their sub-secessions from the breakaway state of California. Here you can imagine the awful process of Partition in India, for example; or the Serbian minority in Bosnia. And while everyone in CA is thinking they should be self-determining, we would see other political fractures. North v south. The coastal cities v the interior.