just dive in. the water's fine. :) whether you're 24 or 94. and besides, you shouldn't make life decisions based on the likelihood of whether or not you will w

just dive in. the water's fine. :) whether you're 24 or 94. and besides, you shouldn't make life decisions based on the likelihood of whether or not you will win a nobel prize... edit, one more thing: being a programmer and being a scientist are not necessarily the same thing. are you considering a research career in academia? then you should consider it -- you are 24, you can pretty much go any direction you want career-wise at the moment. but read up on the tradeoffs of doing a phd and going into academia -- there are definitely tradeoffs; comments here on HN as well as articles on chronicle.com and elsewhere.