3 ms·
Main theme: The VCs again are not looking carefully at the plans of the company and, instead, are focused just on current traction and maybe the growth rate
by graycat 10y ago
Main theme: The VCs
again are not looking
carefully at the plans of the
company and, instead,
are focused just on
current traction and
maybe the growth rate
of that traction.
So, the VCs are looking at
essentially just accounting
measures. That's like
betting on race cars without
looking at the car engineering.
Problem: Using just traction and its rate of growth is
a poor way to evaluate the real
future of the company.
Here's some of how: That
approach ignores (A) the
size of the market and its
growth rate, (B) the
core technology and is it
defensible or, instead,
easy to duplicate or
equal, (C) the status of
would be competition, (D) the
scalability of the
technology, (E) the
margins once have reached
some significant scale, etc.
The VCs look like they would
really like a drag race
car that from a standing
start just went 0-100 MPH in
2.5 seconds but 500 feet
ahead is headed off a cliff, in another 1/2 second will
have the rear tires explode,
the supercharger belt
fail, or already has the engine
at 8000 RPM and in 1/2
second at 10,000 RPM the
engine will explode.
Why Do VCs Do This: As the OP
explains, the VCs have to
report back to their LPs
quite frequently, and the
LPs are looking only for
simplistic measures, e.g., from
something close to
traditional accounting, e.g.,
would ignore anything about
the engineering of a race car.
Apparently the VCs and LPs would
prefer a lemonade stand that
opened just before July 4th and
on July 5th can show good traction
and fantastic rate of growth
in traction.
For a safe, effective, cheap
one pill that taken once can
cure any cancer now in Phase III
trials, the information
technology VCs would say "No
traction" and f'get about it.
So, the VCs want an early pop easy to see and measure
in simplistic terms. Okay, that can become
a game. So, delay all reports
of progress. When have accumulated
some nice progress in traction,
in January say that will have rapid growth starting in March
and will have a report on
April 1st. Do that, and have
the April 1st report look
really good on traction and
its rate of growth. Then
let the VCs report this
fantastic exploding success
back to the LPs.
Information technology VCs
just flatly refuse to
evaluate projects based
on the real internals
and, instead, pay attention only to
simplistic, visible, external
measures. That's foolish.
Entrepreneurs beware: Reporting
to a BoD of fools is no fun.
- CalChris 10y agoI agree with a lot of what you said but would biotech VCs evaluate IT any better? Biotech has really long expensive cycle times from discovery through trials. It's like correspondence chess vs bullet. Not the same, not similar. On biotech, I had a sailing buddy, Cambridge PhD, and I could not understand the motivation of principle engineer level researchers in that field. Maybe it's a job job; I couldn't see any parallel.
- graycat 10y agoWhat I noticed about the bio-tech VCs is that they commonly have some actual expertise in bio-tech, e.g., in their educations, frequently MDs, bio-medical Ph.D.'s, or both, and good, relevant technical experience before becoming VCs. So, a guess is that with such backgrounds, the bio-tech VCs can look at a bio-tech startup and look at its technology and actually understand and evaluate it, understand the competitive situation, look at market potential, evaluate the technical qualifications of the founders, etc. E.g., for bio-tech projects, the NIH problem sponsors can do such evaluations. For STEM projects, the NSF, DARPA, ONR, etc. problem sponsors can do such evaluations. The corresponding situation for information technology VCs is wildly different -- history majors who got MBA degrees and have some experience in business development. With high irony, it was leading edge STEM field technical work for US national security and the space race that initially got Silicon Valley going -- transistors, microwave, radar, etc.
- shostack 10y agoIs that a viable path to becoming a biotech VC?