Those are very old numbers trying to estimate the total size of the bailout, and the total potential downside. They aren't trying to estimate the actual net co

Those are very old numbers trying to estimate the total size of the bailout, and the total potential downside. They aren't trying to estimate the actual net cost, nor are they trying to compare it to the total potential downside of the alternatives. So it's technically right, in a sense (or it was when it was written last decade), but it isn't trying to answer the question you're asking, it's horribly outdated, and it's larded with weasel words. "[T]hese guarantees could have potentially cost the federal government more than $3 trillion..." but actually didn't. "[T]he government's potential exposure from the PPIF is between $500 million and $1 trillion..." but they ended up turning a profit on it. "As of December 21, 2009, $117.5 billion of that has been repaid..." and subsequently the rest of it was too. "The Treasury has bought $200 million in preferred stock from Fannie Mae" and then ended up quasi-nationalizing it and has since been making a hefty profit on it. And so on, and so forth. What the report shows is that the financial crisis had enormous potential price tags attached to it, but the bills never ended up coming due. Whether that was luck or skill remains to be shown. :) > the real cost of the bailout was much, much higher No. You can argue about the true underlying risks, and the proper risk adjusted interest rate to nominally charge when lending government funds to a quasi-government entity with an effective government guarantee, and the option value of the bailout, and you can argue that it, on balance, cost a few billion, or quite a few billion, or maybe even turned a profit. I think the CBO scored it at $60 billion a while back; I'd lean towards the "cost a couple hundred billion" answer, but it's ultimately too complicated a question to ever really have an answer. Especially if you try and estimate the cost compared to some other policy. :)