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They're speaking of Chaos Theory, which was invented/discovered for weather prediction. 'Complexity', in this sense, doesn't mean 'it's rocket science' bus is

They're speaking of Chaos Theory, which was invented/discovered for weather prediction. 'Complexity', in this sense, doesn't mean 'it's rocket science' bus is a definable quantity.

igravious 10y ago
No, they are using complex in the it's got may interlocking parts and all those parts are fiendishly difficult to understand individually and put together sense :) They're referring to the total technological package, supercomputer forecasting, in addition to satellite building, lofting, and monitoring. It's not a reference to the complexity of chaos theory. At least that's what I get from the context of the quote, which continues, “And we do it together as one species. It’s one of our greatest successes.” Made me get the warm fuzzies, sometimes we're not so shabby. :)
sandworm101 10y ago
That definition of complexity, counting all the interlocking parts, leads to laughable conclusions. Example: The decision whether to walk my dog at the park or at the beach is now more complex than launching satellites. Since the park/beach decision relies upon both weather forecasts and dog psychology it is therefore more complex than either. Since weather forecasting involves launching satellites, there are more parts in the park/beach decision. To be relevant, complexity should measure not the entire system but the number of variables at a specific point in the system. Rocket science isn't very complex as it is very compartmentalized. Different stages in the process involve discrete decisions divorced from others scheduled to occur at different times. So, weather forecasting wins because the number of variables at every decision is far greater. The flow-chart for a rocketry decision is more vertical whereas the chart for a weather forecast is more horizontal.
- kilotaras 10y ago
  Where should I go with my dog in 7 days can be argued that more complex. Where should I go now - not so much.

They're speaking of Chaos Theory, which was invented/discovered for weather prediction. 'Complexity', in this sense, doesn't mean 'it's rocket science' bus is a definable quantity.

igravious 10y ago

No, they are using complex in the it's got may interlocking parts and all those parts are fiendishly difficult to understand individually and put together sense :) They're referring to the total technological package, supercomputer forecasting, in addition to satellite building, lofting, and monitoring. It's not a reference to the complexity of chaos theory. At least that's what I get from the context of the quote, which continues, “And we do it together as one species. It’s one of our greatest successes.” Made me get the warm fuzzies, sometimes we're not so shabby. :)

sandworm101 10y ago

That definition of complexity, counting all the interlocking parts, leads to laughable conclusions. Example: The decision whether to walk my dog at the park or at the beach is now more complex than launching satellites. Since the park/beach decision relies upon both weather forecasts and dog psychology it is therefore more complex than either. Since weather forecasting involves launching satellites, there are more parts in the park/beach decision. To be relevant, complexity should measure not the entire system but the number of variables at a specific point in the system. Rocket science isn't very complex as it is very compartmentalized. Different stages in the process involve discrete decisions divorced from others scheduled to occur at different times. So, weather forecasting wins because the number of variables at every decision is far greater. The flow-chart for a rocketry decision is more vertical whereas the chart for a weather forecast is more horizontal.

kilotaras 10y ago
Where should I go with my dog in 7 days can be argued that more complex. Where should I go now - not so much.