That's unjustified equivocation, IMO. You're arguing that the probabilities are somehow "equal" (or at least of comparable magnitude), but I don't think that's

That's unjustified equivocation, IMO. You're arguing that the probabilities are somehow "equal" (or at least of comparable magnitude), but I don't think that's even remotely the case. Don't get me wrong! It's very worrying that we haven't heard anything from him. I think a simpler explanation is simply that he's been killed and that "they" are waiting for enough time to pass for either: 1) everyone to 'forget' his importance, or 2) to control the 'narrative' enough that "we" will hate him regardless. EDIT: If he has been permanently incapacitated, I'd hope that he has staged a series of increasingly disruptive DMSes over, say, a few decades. I'm guessing there was enough data in some of the leaks for that.