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> > When will AI systems become more intelligent than people? > [...] > Achieving [general-purpose AI with greater ability than humans] would > re
by nickysielicki 10y ago
> > When will AI systems become more intelligent than people?
> [...]
> Achieving [general-purpose AI with greater ability than humans] would
> require significant breakthroughs in AI research and those are
> very hard to predict.
> Most AI researchers think it might happen in this century.
Is the author projecting here, or is that actually true?
- bonoboTP 10y agoIt's very true that it's hard to predict. Whether most researchers think it "might happen in this century" can only be answered with a comprehensive survey. Some attempts and analyses of such surveys: http://aiimpacts.org/ai-timeline-surveys/ http://aiimpacts.org/ai-timeline-surveys/ and http://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/survey.pdf http://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/survey.pdf It's speculation, really. The point is, breakthroughs or showstopping difficulties are hard to predict.
- dvt 10y agoIt's not true, and it's basically sensationalist nonsense. The scope of human intelligence hasn't even been mapped yet and we can't even accurately formalize things like natural language. Saying AI has a long way to go is like saying an electron is "pretty small".
- justinpombrio 10y agoWhat part of that quote, exactly, is "sensationalist nonsense"? The first part that says that more breakthroughs are needed, or the second part that states the testable fact that most AI researchers give a high probability that we will achieve human level AI this century?