6 ms·

On perfectly marked roads, in fair weather, with no bad behaviour seen from other drivers in the video. Impressive, but the technology has a long way to go yet

by inimino 10y ago

On perfectly marked roads, in fair weather, with no bad behaviour seen from other drivers in the video. Impressive, but the technology has a long way to go yet before it can replace human drivers.

Gys 10y ago
I do not understand why the focus on self driving is so much on the whole trip. 90 - 95% of the time I am driving long stretches, I spend on highways. No problem if only that part would be done selfdriving. Those few minutes in busy town centers I do not mind to do myself. No problem of driving short stretches (10 - 15 min) either.
- em3rgent0rdr 10y ago
  maybe your driving behavior is different from other people. I live in a city and do about half time on city streets and half time on highways. Anyway, consistent performance on all parts of the trip is needed to convince buyers.
  - kalleboo 10y ago
    > needed to convince buyers Buyers were convinced by "cruise control", which just (barely) keeps a set speed.
    - TeMPOraL 10y ago
      s/convince buyers/avoid mass accidents caused by drivers becoming even less attentive than they're now/. Cruise control doesn't cause that, but a "90% there" self-driving solution will.
      - kalleboo 10y ago
        Certainly. That's a completely unrelated debate though.
- Matt3o12_ 10y ago
  It shows that the car would have been able to drive the route completely without a driver. This is handy if you want to pickup somebody, want to avoid high parking fees, need to charge your car without actually doing it. Doing those things right now in a Tesla is probably not safe just now, but it shows that level 5 autonomy is not so far fetched and 2020 is a realistic date.
  - inimino 10y ago
    On that particular day, under favorable conditions. There's a lot of work between 80% and 100%. Showing the 80% doesn't show anything about how long the last 20% will take.
  - davewritescode 10y ago
    There's virtually zero chance we'all have level 5 autonomy within 3 years. The tech is impressive but it has to be absolutely bulletproof. I like Tesla but I find it annoying that Musk doesn't deliver anything on time and it seems like Tesla delivers way more demos than real products.
- kalleboo 10y ago
  Autodriving 90% of the time would be a fantastic feature. Autodriving 100% of the time is where it gets revolutionary (mass-layoffs of truck drivers, taxi drivers, summon features that park cheaply outside of downtown). The former is great, but there's a lot of hype going around right now so it's not strange for people to be cynical.
  - nullc 10y ago
    I think anywhere between 80% and 99.999% would cause a lot of accidents... "good enough to not pay attention and be inattentive when it needs your help, not good enough to not need your help."
    - IanCal 10y ago
      It depends on where the 80% is. If it's "80% of the roads in the country" that's one thing, if it's "at random points, at any time and on average for 20% of your journey you'll be taking control" that's another. It's all about predictability. Even just full motorway / major road driving would be pretty awesome, and the car would know when it's coming up to a section you need to drive and you can have plenty of warning. Not "HELP DRIVER I SAW EITHER A LEAF OR A CHILD QUICK TAKE OVER"
    - Spivak 10y ago
      If I have to pay attention to the road while the car is on autopilot then it's basically useless -- I might as well drive the car just for the stimulation. If/When it's good enough that I can sleep during a long highway trip (and pull into the last rest stop before my exit if I don't wake up) then I'll be happy.
  - rebuilder 10y ago
    Forget parking, the cars would be driving, ferrying people and goods around, as much as possible when not charging. No need to own one, just hail one when you need a ride.
    - deleted 10y ago
      [deleted]
- Qworg 10y ago
  It is so important to do the whole trip because switching costs for the driver from "totally inattentive" to "grasping the wheel and driving" are measured in seconds. Anything less than 4 is asking for trouble.
  - mac01021 10y ago
    Do you assume that the car, after recognizing that human intervention is required, continues to move forward into the path of danger while it waits for the human to take over?
    - Qworg 10y ago
      I assume that there are a huge number of situations where "quietly pull over and let the human drive" is impossible. I'm not talking about "oh hey, here's a situation I can't handle" and more "take over now".
      - Animats 10y ago
        Volvo takes the position for their 2017 that they cannot demand that the driver take over. The car can ask, but must be prepared to pull over and stop if the driver doesn't push the "Manual Drive" button. Here's the first of 100 self-driving cars Volvo will put in customer hands in 2017.[1] This shows close-ups of all the sensors - high radar and camera behind the windscreen, low LIDAR and camera in the nose, and side and down-looking cameras on the door mirrors. No high-mounted LIDAR, though. These vehicles are intended for self-driving in all weather conditions in Gothenburg, Sweden. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwcSeRE-XEY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwcSeRE-XEY
        Qworg 10y ago
        Sure. But didn't the Volvo CEO push "Level 4 only"? They certainly are saying they'll only release a Level 4 vehicle - the Tesla is still expecting a human to take over.
- heisenbit 10y ago
  You don't mind. However statistics say that most of the accidents happen at the beginning or towards the end of the trip. There are environmental reasons (city vs. sub-urbs vs. cross-country) and there are human reasons.
em3rgent0rdr 10y ago
A real convincing promo video would be in stormy weather with angry, unpredictable drivers and random jaywalking kids.
- DanielBMarkham 10y ago
  Agreed. Throw in some fog, high-speed stop-and-go interstate fun, and moving from the interstate into a crowded city full of people jaywalking and running stoplights trying to get to where they're going.
  - jasonlingx 10y ago
    And inevitably the AI will still be/become faster and safer than humans.
    - DanielBMarkham 10y ago
      Absolutely yes. I can't wait for that day. We'll end up saving more lives per year than if we somehow banished war, at least in industrialized countries. What's weird is the period we're entering, where the technology is becoming more and more capable, but we're still a very long ways away from full auto. Yet the hype machine says it's just around the corner. I'm betting we're still 10-15 years out. So how do we handle situations where the driver has to pay a little attention, but not that much? In airplanes, this has been a very dangerous area -- and things in airplanes usually happen much, much slower than they do in traffic.
      - TeMPOraL 10y ago
        > What's weird is the period we're entering, where the technology is becoming more and more capable, but we're still a very long ways away from full auto. Yet the hype machine says it's just around the corner. I think it would be worthwhile to figure out how to shut down the hype machine, or at least tune it down a few notches. Dreams and visions are fine, but every time I switch the current tab from HN to Facebook, I get to see overhyped bullshit predictions about AI, nanotech, self-driving cars, etc. being just about the corner, as evidenced by whatever misinterpreted paper or video news sites could find that day. And the non-tech crowd is totally buying that. Not just regular folks, but also investors and politicians and all the other people who then end up causing resources to be wasted because they buy into the bullshit.

by inimino 10y ago

On perfectly marked roads, in fair weather, with no bad behaviour seen from other drivers in the video. Impressive, but the technology has a long way to go yet before it can replace human drivers.

Gys 10y ago

I do not understand why the focus on self driving is so much on the whole trip. 90 - 95% of the time I am driving long stretches, I spend on highways. No problem if only that part would be done selfdriving. Those few minutes in busy town centers I do not mind to do myself. No problem of driving short stretches (10 - 15 min) either.

em3rgent0rdr 10y ago
maybe your driving behavior is different from other people. I live in a city and do about half time on city streets and half time on highways. Anyway, consistent performance on all parts of the trip is needed to convince buyers.
- kalleboo 10y ago
  > needed to convince buyers Buyers were convinced by "cruise control", which just (barely) keeps a set speed.
  - TeMPOraL 10y ago
    s/convince buyers/avoid mass accidents caused by drivers becoming even less attentive than they're now/. Cruise control doesn't cause that, but a "90% there" self-driving solution will.
    - kalleboo 10y ago
      Certainly. That's a completely unrelated debate though.
Matt3o12_ 10y ago
It shows that the car would have been able to drive the route completely without a driver. This is handy if you want to pickup somebody, want to avoid high parking fees, need to charge your car without actually doing it. Doing those things right now in a Tesla is probably not safe just now, but it shows that level 5 autonomy is not so far fetched and 2020 is a realistic date.
- inimino 10y ago
  On that particular day, under favorable conditions. There's a lot of work between 80% and 100%. Showing the 80% doesn't show anything about how long the last 20% will take.
- davewritescode 10y ago
  There's virtually zero chance we'all have level 5 autonomy within 3 years. The tech is impressive but it has to be absolutely bulletproof. I like Tesla but I find it annoying that Musk doesn't deliver anything on time and it seems like Tesla delivers way more demos than real products.
kalleboo 10y ago
Autodriving 90% of the time would be a fantastic feature. Autodriving 100% of the time is where it gets revolutionary (mass-layoffs of truck drivers, taxi drivers, summon features that park cheaply outside of downtown). The former is great, but there's a lot of hype going around right now so it's not strange for people to be cynical.
- nullc 10y ago
  I think anywhere between 80% and 99.999% would cause a lot of accidents... "good enough to not pay attention and be inattentive when it needs your help, not good enough to not need your help."
  - IanCal 10y ago
    It depends on where the 80% is. If it's "80% of the roads in the country" that's one thing, if it's "at random points, at any time and on average for 20% of your journey you'll be taking control" that's another. It's all about predictability. Even just full motorway / major road driving would be pretty awesome, and the car would know when it's coming up to a section you need to drive and you can have plenty of warning. Not "HELP DRIVER I SAW EITHER A LEAF OR A CHILD QUICK TAKE OVER"
  - Spivak 10y ago
    If I have to pay attention to the road while the car is on autopilot then it's basically useless -- I might as well drive the car just for the stimulation. If/When it's good enough that I can sleep during a long highway trip (and pull into the last rest stop before my exit if I don't wake up) then I'll be happy.
- rebuilder 10y ago
  Forget parking, the cars would be driving, ferrying people and goods around, as much as possible when not charging. No need to own one, just hail one when you need a ride.
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
Qworg 10y ago
It is so important to do the whole trip because switching costs for the driver from "totally inattentive" to "grasping the wheel and driving" are measured in seconds. Anything less than 4 is asking for trouble.
- mac01021 10y ago
  Do you assume that the car, after recognizing that human intervention is required, continues to move forward into the path of danger while it waits for the human to take over?
  - Qworg 10y ago
    I assume that there are a huge number of situations where "quietly pull over and let the human drive" is impossible. I'm not talking about "oh hey, here's a situation I can't handle" and more "take over now".
    - Animats 10y ago
      Volvo takes the position for their 2017 that they cannot demand that the driver take over. The car can ask, but must be prepared to pull over and stop if the driver doesn't push the "Manual Drive" button. Here's the first of 100 self-driving cars Volvo will put in customer hands in 2017.[1] This shows close-ups of all the sensors - high radar and camera behind the windscreen, low LIDAR and camera in the nose, and side and down-looking cameras on the door mirrors. No high-mounted LIDAR, though. These vehicles are intended for self-driving in all weather conditions in Gothenburg, Sweden. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwcSeRE-XEY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwcSeRE-XEY
      - Qworg 10y ago
        Sure. But didn't the Volvo CEO push "Level 4 only"? They certainly are saying they'll only release a Level 4 vehicle - the Tesla is still expecting a human to take over.
heisenbit 10y ago
You don't mind. However statistics say that most of the accidents happen at the beginning or towards the end of the trip. There are environmental reasons (city vs. sub-urbs vs. cross-country) and there are human reasons.

em3rgent0rdr 10y ago

A real convincing promo video would be in stormy weather with angry, unpredictable drivers and random jaywalking kids.

DanielBMarkham 10y ago
Agreed. Throw in some fog, high-speed stop-and-go interstate fun, and moving from the interstate into a crowded city full of people jaywalking and running stoplights trying to get to where they're going.
- jasonlingx 10y ago
  And inevitably the AI will still be/become faster and safer than humans.
  - DanielBMarkham 10y ago
    Absolutely yes. I can't wait for that day. We'll end up saving more lives per year than if we somehow banished war, at least in industrialized countries. What's weird is the period we're entering, where the technology is becoming more and more capable, but we're still a very long ways away from full auto. Yet the hype machine says it's just around the corner. I'm betting we're still 10-15 years out. So how do we handle situations where the driver has to pay a little attention, but not that much? In airplanes, this has been a very dangerous area -- and things in airplanes usually happen much, much slower than they do in traffic.
    - TeMPOraL 10y ago
      > What's weird is the period we're entering, where the technology is becoming more and more capable, but we're still a very long ways away from full auto. Yet the hype machine says it's just around the corner. I think it would be worthwhile to figure out how to shut down the hype machine, or at least tune it down a few notches. Dreams and visions are fine, but every time I switch the current tab from HN to Facebook, I get to see overhyped bullshit predictions about AI, nanotech, self-driving cars, etc. being just about the corner, as evidenced by whatever misinterpreted paper or video news sites could find that day. And the non-tech crowd is totally buying that. Not just regular folks, but also investors and politicians and all the other people who then end up causing resources to be wasted because they buy into the bullshit.