4 ms·

The west is going to loose millions of jobs, and you're talking about replacing them with thousands. The mainstay of developed countries are the service indust

The west is going to loose millions of jobs, and you're talking about replacing them with thousands. The mainstay of developed countries are the service industries, but already we've lost bank tellers, checkout operators, petrol station concierges, etc. to automation. Next in line will be couriers, truck drivers, taxi drivers, etc. Eventually most jobs will be lost. As a developer, if I'm lucky enough to have a job in the future, it will be writing specifications for code that will be automatically generated. We aren't going to replace all of those jobs with hand crafted jewelry.

intended 10y ago
What people need to consider is that new jobs are being made and economics has not stopped working. The question is - are the new jobs as well paying as the jobs which are lost.
- disordinary 10y ago
  Or if they're FTE positions, in the future we may work 3 day weeks.
- anigbrowl 10y ago
  Some new jobs are being made, but not enough. Actually, serious economists are beginning to worry that macroeconomics is broken and that the existing models of economic development are no longer functioning as expected. I think the chief economist at the World Bank counts as a 'serious economist' and urge you to read his paper described in this news article: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/small-biz/policy-trends/world-banks-chief-economist-romer-says-macroeconomics-in-trouble/articleshow/55508187.cms http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/small-biz/policy-trends/... I really love economics, but you've got to realize that while microeconomics is extremely rigorous and everyone should know some of it, macroeconomics involves a great deal of ideological assumptions and hand-waving, and doesn't have a good theory of technological disruption any more than it has a really good theory of oligopoly.
Roritharr 10y ago
One could argue that if you are not writing straight ASM, you ARE writing specifications for Code already...
dogma1138 10y ago
No it's not 1000's of jobs, some of the big youtube channels like Machinima Inc. spawned entire companies that employ 100-300 employees, even "one man channels" employ multiple people, e.g. they usually have a small staff + outsource a lot of the technical stuff like editing and encoding to other companies. When people say small businesses matter they are looked at weirdly but that is true because a business even if it directly employs a single person indirectly employees many others. 50 years ago some one in data entry would say the same thing as you, I would be lucky if I'll be just writing specifications for what tables this data needs to go into, and you know how we call these people today? Developers.... New jobs are created all the time, 8 out of 10 people don't grow their food, we don't have a village blacksmith and people aren't walking around with long sticks knocking on windows to wake you up in the morning to go to work. Yes there will be quite a few changes in the next 20-50 years but this gloom and doom is ridiculous.
- disordinary 10y ago
  Okay, across the entire planet we're loosing hundreds of millions of jobs and creating hundreds of thousands. In any of these companies we don't have hundreds of creative jobs, there are a hand full of writing, presenting, editing jobs, etc. Most work is in marketing, admin, and support. Service jobs which can be automated with some oversight. What made you think this scenario is doom and gloom? I'm looking forwards to working a 3 day weeks as a software specification writer to supplement my universal basic income, while I sit next to a cabin by a remote lake using my SpaceX internet service.
  - dogma1138 10y ago
    Which is why I specifically made an argument that this is going to affect the developing world considerably more than the west, in fact I would argue that this will affect the developing world exclusively in the long run. The fact that I can get Nike shoes made at on the 3D printer at the local corner shop won't affect me, it will affect the people in Bangladesh and the Philippines that used to make my overpriced shoes. In fact it might even give my next door art major neighbour a new job opportunity because I might just adore their new leopard print digital camo design they came up with and they'll get 15$ when I print my new pair of shoes. And besides my neighbour I might also give 28$ to that new hot YC startup that does a 3D print scan of your body, performs a gate analysis on your walk or run, and then produces a specific sole profile unique to your body and gate. The problem with this is as I stated that this effectively cuts out the rest of the world from the west because we don't need them anymore, if they aren't our food basket or our clothing and gadget factory then they effectively have no interactions with us. And please don't confuse this as some statement of superiority or support for some isolationist costs it's just harsh reality that many people wouldn't even know Bangladesh exists if they didn't had to read the washing label on their jeans once in awhile.
tiatia 10y ago
Reminds me of this job ad: http://www.relatably.com/q/img/unemployed-quotes/Is-Your-Mouth-Unemployed-Inspirational-Life-Quotes.jpg http://www.relatably.com/q/img/unemployed-quotes/Is-Your-Mou...

intended 10y ago

What people need to consider is that new jobs are being made and economics has not stopped working. The question is - are the new jobs as well paying as the jobs which are lost.

disordinary 10y ago
Or if they're FTE positions, in the future we may work 3 day weeks.
anigbrowl 10y ago
Some new jobs are being made, but not enough. Actually, serious economists are beginning to worry that macroeconomics is broken and that the existing models of economic development are no longer functioning as expected. I think the chief economist at the World Bank counts as a 'serious economist' and urge you to read his paper described in this news article: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/small-biz/policy-trends/world-banks-chief-economist-romer-says-macroeconomics-in-trouble/articleshow/55508187.cms http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/small-biz/policy-trends/... I really love economics, but you've got to realize that while microeconomics is extremely rigorous and everyone should know some of it, macroeconomics involves a great deal of ideological assumptions and hand-waving, and doesn't have a good theory of technological disruption any more than it has a really good theory of oligopoly.

Roritharr 10y ago

One could argue that if you are not writing straight ASM, you ARE writing specifications for Code already...

dogma1138 10y ago

No it's not 1000's of jobs, some of the big youtube channels like Machinima Inc. spawned entire companies that employ 100-300 employees, even "one man channels" employ multiple people, e.g. they usually have a small staff + outsource a lot of the technical stuff like editing and encoding to other companies. When people say small businesses matter they are looked at weirdly but that is true because a business even if it directly employs a single person indirectly employees many others. 50 years ago some one in data entry would say the same thing as you, I would be lucky if I'll be just writing specifications for what tables this data needs to go into, and you know how we call these people today? Developers.... New jobs are created all the time, 8 out of 10 people don't grow their food, we don't have a village blacksmith and people aren't walking around with long sticks knocking on windows to wake you up in the morning to go to work. Yes there will be quite a few changes in the next 20-50 years but this gloom and doom is ridiculous.

disordinary 10y ago
Okay, across the entire planet we're loosing hundreds of millions of jobs and creating hundreds of thousands. In any of these companies we don't have hundreds of creative jobs, there are a hand full of writing, presenting, editing jobs, etc. Most work is in marketing, admin, and support. Service jobs which can be automated with some oversight. What made you think this scenario is doom and gloom? I'm looking forwards to working a 3 day weeks as a software specification writer to supplement my universal basic income, while I sit next to a cabin by a remote lake using my SpaceX internet service.
- dogma1138 10y ago
  Which is why I specifically made an argument that this is going to affect the developing world considerably more than the west, in fact I would argue that this will affect the developing world exclusively in the long run. The fact that I can get Nike shoes made at on the 3D printer at the local corner shop won't affect me, it will affect the people in Bangladesh and the Philippines that used to make my overpriced shoes. In fact it might even give my next door art major neighbour a new job opportunity because I might just adore their new leopard print digital camo design they came up with and they'll get 15$ when I print my new pair of shoes. And besides my neighbour I might also give 28$ to that new hot YC startup that does a 3D print scan of your body, performs a gate analysis on your walk or run, and then produces a specific sole profile unique to your body and gate. The problem with this is as I stated that this effectively cuts out the rest of the world from the west because we don't need them anymore, if they aren't our food basket or our clothing and gadget factory then they effectively have no interactions with us. And please don't confuse this as some statement of superiority or support for some isolationist costs it's just harsh reality that many people wouldn't even know Bangladesh exists if they didn't had to read the washing label on their jeans once in awhile.

tiatia 10y ago

Reminds me of this job ad: http://www.relatably.com/q/img/unemployed-quotes/Is-Your-Mouth-Unemployed-Inspirational-Life-Quotes.jpg http://www.relatably.com/q/img/unemployed-quotes/Is-Your-Mou...