Yeah I mean this stuff is all priced by the market. So it isn't any chance or odds based on facts, rather based on what the market priced the chance of the deal

Yeah I mean this stuff is all priced by the market. So it isn't any chance or odds based on facts, rather based on what the market priced the chance of the deal falling through. I felt pretty confident the deal would go through, Elon mentioned that he spoke with many institutional shareholders and they were on board with the deal. Just makes sense that he picks up his own company rather than a competitor. Edit: That's why it's called a "risk arbitrage" play. Arbitrage is when you simultaneously buy and sell the same security at different prices. Risk arbitrage means there's some risk that the securities won't be the same (generally because the merger falls through).