I agree. When I was re-analyzing one of CJ's experiments using Bayesian decision theory ( http://www.gwern.net/Candy%20Japan http://www.gwern.net/Candy%20Japan

I agree. When I was re-analyzing one of CJ's experiments using Bayesian decision theory ( http://www.gwern.net/Candy%20Japan http://www.gwern.net/Candy%20Japan - speaking of wanting to solve hard but not important problems...) what I was struck most by was the incredibly high cancellation rates he was reporting. Clearly something is going wrong there.