What would you say the probability of something going wrong and leading to Kessler syndrome is, if we have 4k more (or even 10-20k more) satellites? I'm sure S

What would you say the probability of something going wrong and leading to Kessler syndrome is, if we have 4k more (or even 10-20k more) satellites? I'm sure SpaceX isn't the only player thinking of adding a lot of cheap satellites in orbit