5 ms·

Hillary only needed to switch 53,650 voters to win

14 points by fhoffa 10y ago

scrollaway 10y ago
This is one of the Dictator's Handbook's earliest lessons (a book I cannot recommend enough, extremely insightful especially in the context of this election - https://smile.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Politics/dp/1610391845 https://smile.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-...): Even though the path to victory in a democracy with a large electorate seems like it's about swaying millions of voters, the numbers are far, far smaller than they look especially in the US system.
- thrill 10y ago
  Not so sure it's that "easy". The millions of voters have to already be swayed in order for a few thousand in just-the-right-places to make the final difference. Thanks for the book link - it looks interesting!
  - scrollaway 10y ago
    True, although it's not that high. In a 2 party system, a lot of people will just vote around the party lines. In fact, we talk a lot about how Trump was crossing the party lines, getting democrats to vote for him and republicans to vote against him, etc... but at the end of the day, red states voted red, blue states voted blue, and swing states were won/lost on very few votes.
carsongross 10y ago
There is no non-tyrannical way to actively govern such a divided country except for some sort of radical federalism, which isn't happening. We will continue flipping back and forth between two warring and, to the opposition, insane governments until the demographic death of the GOP. I'm not optimistic about what happens at that point.
- ashark 10y ago
  > We will continue flipping back and forth between two warring and, to the opposition, insane governments until the demographic death of the GOP. If they can manage to avoid (being perceived as) antagonizing hispanics, I expect the GOP can survive quite a while with an otherwise unmodified platform.
- wool_gather 10y ago
  Getting more than two parties into the game would help lessen the divide, although that's certainly a challenge in its own right. More options than "Trump because the economy even though he said all that stuff" and "Hillary because seriously _that guy_ with nukes?!" might allow a majority of people to actually agree on something rather than focussing on who can more strongly disagree. I was very hopeful about Johnson making a dent this year, but what little coverage he got made him look like a fool.
- BossHogg 10y ago
  I think the "demographic death of the GOP" is much overstated. Much the same way Irish and Italians were absorbed into whiteness, Latinos and Asians will also be absorbed. In fact, it is already well under way. The white people party will continue.
  - carsongross 10y ago
    I don't see much evidence for that claim.
- relics443 10y ago
  I'd actually say neither the GOP nor the Democrats are heading towards a demographic death. GOP isn't going anywhere because of the birth rate of religious groups, and the fact that religious immigrants tend to skew right the longer they've been in the country. The Democrats aren't going anywhere because of the rate of attrition from religious groups. They have lower birth rates than the Republicans, which balances things out. Balance of power is going to depend on: 1. The ratio of birth rates 2. The level of religious attrition in future generations Look at that. It's all about the children :-) I left fringe groups out of both sides.
gremlinsinc 10y ago
Wow that's about as many as signed up for Revolt Against Plutocracy by May.. (a group promoting #BernieOrBust).. Interesting coincidence? -- there've been a number of polls and articles online stating that 40% of Bernie supporters would not vote for her. If he had 10 million voters, that's 4 million people. That's a lot of votes that you're leaving on the table. It really wouldn't have taken Bernie much more votes to win had he been the candidate. All of his supporters, and Jill Stein's would've voted for him, and a large swath of the Independents (which make up 40% of the electorate).. Here's a good article that explains how two ideologies are on the rise (Egalitarianism/Nationalism) and that neoliberalism is on it's way out - which isn't to say corporations aren't going to fight tooth and nail to keep it in place which is exactly what we saw this election. https://benjaminstudebaker.com/2016/02/10/why-bernie-sanders-is-more-electable-than-people-think/ https://benjaminstudebaker.com/2016/02/10/why-bernie-sanders...

14 points by fhoffa 10y ago

This is one of the Dictator's Handbook's earliest lessons (a book I cannot recommend enough, extremely insightful especially in the context of this election - https://smile.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Politics/dp/1610391845 https://smile.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-...): Even though the path to victory in a democracy with a large electorate seems like it's about swaying millions of voters, the numbers are far, far smaller than they look especially in the US system.

thrill 10y ago
Not so sure it's that "easy". The millions of voters have to already be swayed in order for a few thousand in just-the-right-places to make the final difference. Thanks for the book link - it looks interesting!
- scrollaway 10y ago
  True, although it's not that high. In a 2 party system, a lot of people will just vote around the party lines. In fact, we talk a lot about how Trump was crossing the party lines, getting democrats to vote for him and republicans to vote against him, etc... but at the end of the day, red states voted red, blue states voted blue, and swing states were won/lost on very few votes.

carsongross 10y ago

There is no non-tyrannical way to actively govern such a divided country except for some sort of radical federalism, which isn't happening. We will continue flipping back and forth between two warring and, to the opposition, insane governments until the demographic death of the GOP. I'm not optimistic about what happens at that point.

ashark 10y ago
> We will continue flipping back and forth between two warring and, to the opposition, insane governments until the demographic death of the GOP. If they can manage to avoid (being perceived as) antagonizing hispanics, I expect the GOP can survive quite a while with an otherwise unmodified platform.
wool_gather 10y ago
Getting more than two parties into the game would help lessen the divide, although that's certainly a challenge in its own right. More options than "Trump because the economy even though he said all that stuff" and "Hillary because seriously _that guy_ with nukes?!" might allow a majority of people to actually agree on something rather than focussing on who can more strongly disagree. I was very hopeful about Johnson making a dent this year, but what little coverage he got made him look like a fool.
BossHogg 10y ago
I think the "demographic death of the GOP" is much overstated. Much the same way Irish and Italians were absorbed into whiteness, Latinos and Asians will also be absorbed. In fact, it is already well under way. The white people party will continue.
- carsongross 10y ago
  I don't see much evidence for that claim.
relics443 10y ago
I'd actually say neither the GOP nor the Democrats are heading towards a demographic death. GOP isn't going anywhere because of the birth rate of religious groups, and the fact that religious immigrants tend to skew right the longer they've been in the country. The Democrats aren't going anywhere because of the rate of attrition from religious groups. They have lower birth rates than the Republicans, which balances things out. Balance of power is going to depend on: 1. The ratio of birth rates 2. The level of religious attrition in future generations Look at that. It's all about the children :-) I left fringe groups out of both sides.

gremlinsinc 10y ago

Wow that's about as many as signed up for Revolt Against Plutocracy by May.. (a group promoting #BernieOrBust).. Interesting coincidence? -- there've been a number of polls and articles online stating that 40% of Bernie supporters would not vote for her. If he had 10 million voters, that's 4 million people. That's a lot of votes that you're leaving on the table. It really wouldn't have taken Bernie much more votes to win had he been the candidate. All of his supporters, and Jill Stein's would've voted for him, and a large swath of the Independents (which make up 40% of the electorate).. Here's a good article that explains how two ideologies are on the rise (Egalitarianism/Nationalism) and that neoliberalism is on it's way out - which isn't to say corporations aren't going to fight tooth and nail to keep it in place which is exactly what we saw this election. https://benjaminstudebaker.com/2016/02/10/why-bernie-sanders-is-more-electable-than-people-think/ https://benjaminstudebaker.com/2016/02/10/why-bernie-sanders...