It isn't clear to me what a confidence interval is for a prediction from a complex climate model. What are the sources of error for a software model? How can

It isn't clear to me what a confidence interval is for a prediction from a complex climate model. What are the sources of error for a software model? How can they be quantified? In any case, my understanding is that global warming increases that are at the low end of predictions is not catastrophic and that is actually where measured changes fall. Here is a report from the NOAA that says: > The “pause” in global warming observed since 2000 followed a period of rapid acceleration in the late 20th century. Starting in the mid-1970s, global temperatures rose 0.5 °C over a period of 25 years. Since the turn of the century, however, the change in Earth’s global mean surface temperature has been close to zero. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/why-did-earth’s-surface-temperature-stop-rising-past-decade https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/why-did-ear... That report is interesting because it argues against the pause indicating a true slowdown in global warming because the period of time is too short, that climate change works on much longer intervals. Perhaps that is true, and the 15 year pause is temporary. Time will tell.