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I'd be very surprised if shared self driving cars lead to a major reduction in excess parking, or lower the number of traffic jams. People want to do the same

by hibikir 10y ago

I'd be very surprised if shared self driving cars lead to a major reduction in excess parking, or lower the number of traffic jams. People want to do the same things at more or less the same time: Having time off while your social circle is at work is not as fun. Many jobs require customers, and others require entire groups of people to be there together. This means the minimum capacity needed to handle peaks is not going to be very far off from where we are right now. Think of your typical morning traffic: One side of the highway is in gridlock, while the other is doing well. In the evenings, the directions reverse. A lot of people want to be at the office at 8:00, so you need capacity for that. And what do the cars do now that it's 8:05 and they are downtown? Probably nothing, as there is no demand for that much capacity for most of the day. Same thing with a sporting event: People will get to the stadium to watch the 49ers, but Santa Clara doesn't have any use for 40K+ cars for 3 hours on sunday morning. The most you can do is have the cars do some otherwise useless miles to park in a cheaper area further away from the stadium. I'd love to be wrong on this, but this phenomenon would make it surprising if we got a double digit decrease in traffic with shared self driving cars.

jedberg 10y ago
The traffic reduction will come from two sources -- fewer cars and the fact that the cars can drive at optimal speed, reducing unnecessary slowdowns. That being said, while some cars would need to be stationary, there are plenty of people moving around all day long.
- greggman 10y ago
  Do we know there will be fewer cars? Self Driving cars allow all non-drivers to use a car.
  - FatalLogic 10y ago
    Yes, that's so, although I think it's fair to assume that many non-drivers don't use a car because of the cost, not because they're unwilling to drive or incapable of driving. On the other hand, the cost of car ownership could be reduced with self driving cars.
dba7dba 10y ago
>I'd be very surprised if shared self driving cars lead to a major reduction in excess parking, or lower the number of traffic jams. I agree. Years ago in a certain Asian city when chauffeurs were still common for well off families, traffic around luxury department stores was bad even during day time. A chauffeur would drop off the housewife for a shopping trip, and than he would drive around and around until her shopping was done (because parking is hard to find). I expect same thing to happen with self-driving cars.
- CydeWeys 10y ago
  You're still assuming that everyone owns their own self-driving car, though. Given that the average person only uses a car for one hour per day it's silly that you'd keep idle a car that can drive itself for those other 23 hours. It makes sense to share the entire fleet. So after you get dropped off at the mall, the car is off to pick up its next passenger, and you get whatever self-driving car happens to be closest when you're done shopping.
  - mantas 10y ago
    One of the reasons I love having a car is storage. I can go chain-shopping and store items I bought in the car. Getting a random self-driving car would make me carry all the stuff I bought with me. Kinda sucks. Same with commuting or going to mass events. I keep some drinking water (fuck stadium/concerts pricing) in my car. I keep some gloves in case weather is colder than expected and to make sure I didn't accidentally forget them at home. Ditto on umbrella. I always got some reusable shopping bags in my trunk. Fuck paying for shitty plastic bags at grocery shop. My mom's trunk is literally full of random crap that she uses maybe twice a year. But she loves having it there. Using random cars (wether self-driving or not, e.g. regular taxi) would have to be much better to payoff for loosing this advantage.
    - CydeWeys 10y ago
      You would still be able to go chain-hopping with a self-driving car, you would just be paying to keep it engaged the entire time, rather than getting a separate car for each hop and only paying while you're actually in it. As for everything else, I totally get that not being able to keep stuff in your car is inconvenient. But there are billions of people out there who don't own cars who already deal with these issues every day, and they can be overcome. For instance, I live in NYC and I don't own a car. When I'm out of the apartment for longer periods of time I bring a backpack with me, packed with water, a Kindle (for amusing myself on subway rides), additional clothing suitable for the day's weather, an Anker battery pack to recharge my phone, and other stuff. The big advantage is that you are no longer paying the substantial costs of car ownership, which should more than make up for the slight decrease in convenience. If it doesn't for you, you could always buy your own self-driving car.
cameldrv 10y ago
You're underestimating all of the ways self-driving cars will increase efficiency relative to parking, which are multiplicative. 1. Much higher occupancy per car. Based on my personal observations, at rush hour the average occupancy of a car is something like 1.3. I don't see any reason that can't increase to 2.6 or more without significantly slowing anyone down -- 2x 2. Yes, a lot of people need to get to work at 8, but normal working hours start at different times for different people, anywhere from 6:30-9:30 is fairly typical in a U.S. city. If the average person has a 30-40 minute commute, and there is a reasonable amount of reverse commute demand, a car should be able to make 2-3 round trips per day at least -- 2.5x 3. Cars driving more efficiently with quicker reaction time and less mistakes will speed up commutes a lot. Hard to say how much but I'd say at least 30%. This directly increases capacity, since shorter commutes mean each car moves more people in the 6:30-9:30 window -- 1.3x 4. If self driving cars can communicate with each other to park, they can pack themselves very closely, and make room for a car to get in and out, removing the need for oversized parking spots, space between cars for doors to open, and aisles between cars. This should improve parking density by at least 3x. 5. Cars that are on-demand and self-driving can be smaller than typical cars we drive today. Since you can order any sized vehicle based on what's needed for an individual trip, there will be many fewer empty seats. Without the need for a steering wheel and controls, interiors can make much greater use of available interior space. This should reduce the exterior size of the average car at least 1.5x. 6. Cars can find parking in more remote areas. If parking is not available within a block of the office, the car can drop you off and park a few blocks away. This increases utilitzation, say 1.2x. So, multiply it all together, and you get 35x better parking efficiency. It's going to be a huge win for dense cities.
- desas 10y ago
  Do you think people will prefer to use a self driving car that gets them to the office ten minutes faster or one that meanders around picking up other people and dropping them off?
  - usrusr 10y ago
    For many people, that meander will save them more money than they will earn in any other 10 minute slot of the day. And sitting in a robocab is smartphone media consumption time (or time for a printed newspaper, if you're a Vicky), it's not terribly hard to tolerate minutes that way. A well designed (and sufficiently dense in usage) shared autonomous car system could also support usage patterns a lot more dynamic than rigid door-to-door pickup: instead of sitting around idle, waiting for a car to divert into the cul de sac maze of their suburb, users might prefer a little walk towards the next through road, with the app auto-negotiating a rendezvous point. Not only because taking a little walk through your neighborhood is less annoying than sitting idle on call for pickup, but also because it would actually be faster. With that usage pattern, pickup overhead for the occupants would be much lower I say "could" instead of "will" because all this is more a question of cultural development than a technological/economic one. If individual car usage does not go out of fashion, robotic driving will only continue the trend towards ever bigger commuter castles.

by hibikir 10y ago

jedberg 10y ago

The traffic reduction will come from two sources -- fewer cars and the fact that the cars can drive at optimal speed, reducing unnecessary slowdowns. That being said, while some cars would need to be stationary, there are plenty of people moving around all day long.

greggman 10y ago
Do we know there will be fewer cars? Self Driving cars allow all non-drivers to use a car.
- FatalLogic 10y ago
  Yes, that's so, although I think it's fair to assume that many non-drivers don't use a car because of the cost, not because they're unwilling to drive or incapable of driving. On the other hand, the cost of car ownership could be reduced with self driving cars.

dba7dba 10y ago

>I'd be very surprised if shared self driving cars lead to a major reduction in excess parking, or lower the number of traffic jams. I agree. Years ago in a certain Asian city when chauffeurs were still common for well off families, traffic around luxury department stores was bad even during day time. A chauffeur would drop off the housewife for a shopping trip, and than he would drive around and around until her shopping was done (because parking is hard to find). I expect same thing to happen with self-driving cars.

CydeWeys 10y ago
You're still assuming that everyone owns their own self-driving car, though. Given that the average person only uses a car for one hour per day it's silly that you'd keep idle a car that can drive itself for those other 23 hours. It makes sense to share the entire fleet. So after you get dropped off at the mall, the car is off to pick up its next passenger, and you get whatever self-driving car happens to be closest when you're done shopping.
- mantas 10y ago
  One of the reasons I love having a car is storage. I can go chain-shopping and store items I bought in the car. Getting a random self-driving car would make me carry all the stuff I bought with me. Kinda sucks. Same with commuting or going to mass events. I keep some drinking water (fuck stadium/concerts pricing) in my car. I keep some gloves in case weather is colder than expected and to make sure I didn't accidentally forget them at home. Ditto on umbrella. I always got some reusable shopping bags in my trunk. Fuck paying for shitty plastic bags at grocery shop. My mom's trunk is literally full of random crap that she uses maybe twice a year. But she loves having it there. Using random cars (wether self-driving or not, e.g. regular taxi) would have to be much better to payoff for loosing this advantage.
  - CydeWeys 10y ago
    You would still be able to go chain-hopping with a self-driving car, you would just be paying to keep it engaged the entire time, rather than getting a separate car for each hop and only paying while you're actually in it. As for everything else, I totally get that not being able to keep stuff in your car is inconvenient. But there are billions of people out there who don't own cars who already deal with these issues every day, and they can be overcome. For instance, I live in NYC and I don't own a car. When I'm out of the apartment for longer periods of time I bring a backpack with me, packed with water, a Kindle (for amusing myself on subway rides), additional clothing suitable for the day's weather, an Anker battery pack to recharge my phone, and other stuff. The big advantage is that you are no longer paying the substantial costs of car ownership, which should more than make up for the slight decrease in convenience. If it doesn't for you, you could always buy your own self-driving car.

cameldrv 10y ago

You're underestimating all of the ways self-driving cars will increase efficiency relative to parking, which are multiplicative. 1. Much higher occupancy per car. Based on my personal observations, at rush hour the average occupancy of a car is something like 1.3. I don't see any reason that can't increase to 2.6 or more without significantly slowing anyone down -- 2x 2. Yes, a lot of people need to get to work at 8, but normal working hours start at different times for different people, anywhere from 6:30-9:30 is fairly typical in a U.S. city. If the average person has a 30-40 minute commute, and there is a reasonable amount of reverse commute demand, a car should be able to make 2-3 round trips per day at least -- 2.5x 3. Cars driving more efficiently with quicker reaction time and less mistakes will speed up commutes a lot. Hard to say how much but I'd say at least 30%. This directly increases capacity, since shorter commutes mean each car moves more people in the 6:30-9:30 window -- 1.3x 4. If self driving cars can communicate with each other to park, they can pack themselves very closely, and make room for a car to get in and out, removing the need for oversized parking spots, space between cars for doors to open, and aisles between cars. This should improve parking density by at least 3x. 5. Cars that are on-demand and self-driving can be smaller than typical cars we drive today. Since you can order any sized vehicle based on what's needed for an individual trip, there will be many fewer empty seats. Without the need for a steering wheel and controls, interiors can make much greater use of available interior space. This should reduce the exterior size of the average car at least 1.5x. 6. Cars can find parking in more remote areas. If parking is not available within a block of the office, the car can drop you off and park a few blocks away. This increases utilitzation, say 1.2x. So, multiply it all together, and you get 35x better parking efficiency. It's going to be a huge win for dense cities.

desas 10y ago
Do you think people will prefer to use a self driving car that gets them to the office ten minutes faster or one that meanders around picking up other people and dropping them off?
- usrusr 10y ago
  For many people, that meander will save them more money than they will earn in any other 10 minute slot of the day. And sitting in a robocab is smartphone media consumption time (or time for a printed newspaper, if you're a Vicky), it's not terribly hard to tolerate minutes that way. A well designed (and sufficiently dense in usage) shared autonomous car system could also support usage patterns a lot more dynamic than rigid door-to-door pickup: instead of sitting around idle, waiting for a car to divert into the cul de sac maze of their suburb, users might prefer a little walk towards the next through road, with the app auto-negotiating a rendezvous point. Not only because taking a little walk through your neighborhood is less annoying than sitting idle on call for pickup, but also because it would actually be faster. With that usage pattern, pickup overhead for the occupants would be much lower I say "could" instead of "will" because all this is more a question of cultural development than a technological/economic one. If individual car usage does not go out of fashion, robotic driving will only continue the trend towards ever bigger commuter castles.