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1. I don't believe Google is in the business of killing off other companies' products by strategic/underhand/'evil' means. One possible reason for this is a cor

by noibl 17y ago

1. I don't believe Google is in the business of killing off other companies' products by strategic/underhand/'evil' means. One possible reason for this is a corporate belief in a kind of technological natural selection: the optimal solution to a problem will eventually win no matter how many emergences of it you manage to kill off. Thinking about killing off competitors' products by any means other than offering superior products is a serious distraction which can damage a company's viability in the long term. 2. Youtube is nice but as the author almost admits, it's just not a big enough lever to bring about this kind of change. The suggestion that IE, currently bundled with Windows, will see its market share drop to 20% because of Youtube is kind of ridiculous. 3. The motivation is insufficient. Google wants to stick a fork in Microsoft's eye and bury the Flash runtime why? Allegedly to promote HTML5 and CSS3. Well, Microsoft is already awake on that front, the only question regarding support is how soon will IE9 be released. Google and Adobe are collaborating on the successor to NSAPI as well as Android support. Google currently uses Flash all over the place and has just agreed to bundle it with Chrome. It's reasonable to guess that Flash's VP6 codec will soon be updated to VP8. Google is not at war with either Microsoft or Adobe. Apple (or maybe just Steve Jobs) is at war with Google. Partnering with those other companies in ways that advance the state-of-the-art is a much more sensible approach in the current climate than anything suggested in this article.

ZeroGravitas 17y ago
The prediction was 20% in two years, I think Youtube was proposed as only part of Google's strategy. IE dropped from about 60 to 50 this past year, so extending that out two years gives you 30%. Taking that into account 20% isn't actually a ridiculous figure. You could even argue that it could hit some kind of tipping point and increase the rate of change. I believe Youtube(and some other Google properties) are already trying to move people from IE6, which is itself a third of IE's share. I personally agree mostly with your points about collaboration but also think that Google can most effectively kill Flash, by working with Microsoft on HTML5, and most effectively kill Microsoft by working with Adobe to fill in IE's HTML5 gaps. Same with Apple etc. So collaboration and extreme competition don't have to be mutually exclusive.

by noibl 17y ago

ZeroGravitas 17y ago

The prediction was 20% in two years, I think Youtube was proposed as only part of Google's strategy. IE dropped from about 60 to 50 this past year, so extending that out two years gives you 30%. Taking that into account 20% isn't actually a ridiculous figure. You could even argue that it could hit some kind of tipping point and increase the rate of change. I believe Youtube(and some other Google properties) are already trying to move people from IE6, which is itself a third of IE's share. I personally agree mostly with your points about collaboration but also think that Google can most effectively kill Flash, by working with Microsoft on HTML5, and most effectively kill Microsoft by working with Adobe to fill in IE's HTML5 gaps. Same with Apple etc. So collaboration and extreme competition don't have to be mutually exclusive.