4 ms·

I don't do any prepping myself, but I do not dismiss those who do. All of our systems are unbelievably complex and interconnected that I do not think it would t

by alva 10y ago

I don't do any prepping myself, but I do not dismiss those who do. All of our systems are unbelievably complex and interconnected that I do not think it would take that much for things to go sour quickly. Seems like the cause would be something that initially appears trivial. Less Zombie apocalypse or rogue government, more like infrastructure hack, big and sudden recession or drastic oil shortage. In the oil example, much of the systems of society would be put under sever stress. Perhaps we could endure it without any societal breakdown, but it would be tough keeping society running with mass food, transport and power shortages. Our governments make extensive plans to deal with these situations. The stability of even first world countries is not so high as we might assume. "Every nation is about nine meals from anarchy"

Symbiote 10y ago
> Our governments make extensive plans to deal with these situations. I have a decent trust that these plans are appropriate and sufficient, and that if I needed to make my own preparations, I'd be aware of it. "In the European Union, according to Council Directive 68/414/EEC of 20 December 1968, all 28 member states are required to have a strategic petroleum reserve within the territory of the E.U. equal to at least 90 days of average domestic consumption" Some government sites in Britain suggest an emergency "grab bag", but the contents is minimal compared to the American versions -- some cereal and chocolate bars, for example [2]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_strategic_petroleum_reserves#European_Union https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_strategic_petroleum_res... [2] https://www.barnet.gov.uk/citizen-home/environmental-health/emergencies/information-for-residents/emergency-grab-bag.html https://www.barnet.gov.uk/citizen-home/environmental-health/...
- alva 10y ago
  Thanks for the links, was not aware of either. > I have a decent trust that these plans are appropriate and sufficient I am not so trusting. I think the failure of western financial regulations in 2008 is a decent example of how sheer complexity shatters existing safeguards. I am sure they have done their best to account for these sort of scenarios, but the real world is far more complex than a model. I do see where you are coming from though.
masonic 10y ago
Our governments make extensive plans to deal with these situations Really? Look how long it's taken multiple layers of government (especially the Federal government) to deal with the Flint water crisis or the Animas river disaster... despite having no disaster-introduced transportation or resource barriers.
- alva 10y ago
  I certainly think they make plans thinking it will help. Whether or not their plans are any good, especially in regard to supreme complexity, is my point. I have serious reservations.
DanBC 10y ago
Look at Gloucestershire UK a few years ago. They had flooding. That overcame flood defences at a water treatment plant, and that caused havoc for weeks. http://www.bbc.co.uk/gloucestershire/floods/ http://www.bbc.co.uk/gloucestershire/floods/ some places went without water for some time. 135,000 homes went without water for upto 17 days. Each person requires 10 litres of clean water per day. http://www.floodprobe.eu/partner/assets/documents/Floodprobe-Factsheet-casestudy-gloucester.pdf http://www.floodprobe.eu/partner/assets/documents/Floodprobe... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_United_Kingdom_floods https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_United_Kingdom_floods Some bits of the planning failed - the water treatment plant should not have flooded, for example. But some did work - vulnerable people who needed medication mostly got it; and people did get 10 litres of clean water each day. But it's that event that made me keep some bottles of water, and to keep some stocks of tinned food.

by alva 10y ago

Symbiote 10y ago

> Our governments make extensive plans to deal with these situations. I have a decent trust that these plans are appropriate and sufficient, and that if I needed to make my own preparations, I'd be aware of it. "In the European Union, according to Council Directive 68/414/EEC of 20 December 1968, all 28 member states are required to have a strategic petroleum reserve within the territory of the E.U. equal to at least 90 days of average domestic consumption" Some government sites in Britain suggest an emergency "grab bag", but the contents is minimal compared to the American versions -- some cereal and chocolate bars, for example [2]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_strategic_petroleum_reserves#European_Union https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_strategic_petroleum_res... [2] https://www.barnet.gov.uk/citizen-home/environmental-health/emergencies/information-for-residents/emergency-grab-bag.html https://www.barnet.gov.uk/citizen-home/environmental-health/...

alva 10y ago
Thanks for the links, was not aware of either. > I have a decent trust that these plans are appropriate and sufficient I am not so trusting. I think the failure of western financial regulations in 2008 is a decent example of how sheer complexity shatters existing safeguards. I am sure they have done their best to account for these sort of scenarios, but the real world is far more complex than a model. I do see where you are coming from though.

masonic 10y ago

Our governments make extensive plans to deal with these situations Really? Look how long it's taken multiple layers of government (especially the Federal government) to deal with the Flint water crisis or the Animas river disaster... despite having no disaster-introduced transportation or resource barriers.

alva 10y ago
I certainly think they make plans thinking it will help. Whether or not their plans are any good, especially in regard to supreme complexity, is my point. I have serious reservations.

DanBC 10y ago

Look at Gloucestershire UK a few years ago. They had flooding. That overcame flood defences at a water treatment plant, and that caused havoc for weeks. http://www.bbc.co.uk/gloucestershire/floods/ http://www.bbc.co.uk/gloucestershire/floods/ some places went without water for some time. 135,000 homes went without water for upto 17 days. Each person requires 10 litres of clean water per day. http://www.floodprobe.eu/partner/assets/documents/Floodprobe-Factsheet-casestudy-gloucester.pdf http://www.floodprobe.eu/partner/assets/documents/Floodprobe... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_United_Kingdom_floods https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_United_Kingdom_floods Some bits of the planning failed - the water treatment plant should not have flooded, for example. But some did work - vulnerable people who needed medication mostly got it; and people did get 10 litres of clean water each day. But it's that event that made me keep some bottles of water, and to keep some stocks of tinned food.