You don't understand. America, for example, needs a minimum amount of oil per day to function. If oil becomes very scarce, very quickly, then most countries w

You don't understand. America, for example, needs a minimum amount of oil per day to function. If oil becomes very scarce, very quickly, then most countries will see it as a strategic resource. They may sell, to be sure, but not at a volume or a price that will ensure a level of functional viability. This may not happen, of course, but America isn't stupid: it has spent hundreds of billions ensuring that Iraqi oil will be that source when others fail. Do you see? It's not just a simple matter of being fungible, because all suppliers are also consumers, and the resource has the potential to be strategic, in which case trumps market forces. If suddenly water became scarce, I may not sell to you at any price because I want to ensure that I have enough for me and my family. It doesn't matter that water is the same everywhere -- if everyone feels that way, you're not going to get some at a price or volume of any certainty. Period.