It will also be interesting to see what happens to the peak oil fear-mongering when some of the new US shale gas reserves start coming on line. It turns out th

It will also be interesting to see what happens to the peak oil fear-mongering when some of the new US shale gas reserves start coming on line. It turns out that there is a hell of a lot more natural gas available than anyone ever suspected (or at least thought we could get our hands on) and these new techniques have not really been applied outside of the US yet; the geopolitical consequences of potentially large shale gas deposits in Poland could be quite significant. Natural gas is a very good substitute for most uses of crude oil. Not as good for plastics, but for just about every other purpose it is far better than oil. If oil actually does start to get as scarce as the peak oil proponents suggest I think that the first alternative you are going to see take over is natural gas.