The current trend-line puts computing power at the level of the human brain in 10 years or so. However, processing power increases has been slowing down lately

The current trend-line puts computing power at the level of the human brain in 10 years or so. However, processing power increases has been slowing down lately both in terms of time and the amount of money required for each new advance. In addition, actually modeling a brain is not the same thing as having the computing power to do so. Our current chips have billions of transistors. However, our most sophisticated neural networks have a million nodes or so, I believe. So we're a ways away from simulating a brain, human or otherwise. It's definitely more than 10 years. Probably 20 or more. And since we can't really predict computing power that far out, it's really hard to predict meaningfully.